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Pattern December to Remember

The good news is for a cold and snow lovers is that there’s a whole two months of winter for this pattern to flip. The bad news is in typical la Niña‘s the second half of winter isn’t favorable for winter weather.
 
Hoping for a repeat of 1984-5, when ENSO was very similar:

Nov of 1984 was mild in most of the central US and Maine but quite cold in the SE/lower MA states, very similar to Nov of 2021:C764E260-34F8-467F-9431-0D7C330062A4.png

Dec of 1984 was way AN in the E US due largely to MC dominant MJO and we’re very likely headed to a similarly very mild Dec of 2021:

B3B1421C-B004-4F1E-92CE-B85F3A5DC137.png

Here’s the historic Jan of 1985, which turned sharply colder as the MJO rotated to the cold/left side:

1518AD01-D4B2-4F11-AFD8-E251928331D0.png

Here’s to hoping for a January of 1985 this January (again the ENSO is similar and the MJO will hopefully be similar)!
 
Webberweather53 said:
All 3 major ensembles 5-day mean temperature anomalies through mid-Dec

?????

1639677600-CTunnujstx4.png

1639699200-56N2PDEhjyI.png


1639699200-445sAA6GNeo.png
Click to expand...
That is butt ugly!
 
Looking like once more we’re gonna have a cold November leading up to a very warm December
 
GaWx said:
I should add that quite likely Dec of 2021 will be significantly warmer than November of 2021 in absolute temperatures. The same was the case in Nov/Dec of 1984. Then came January of 1985 and its super cold.
Click to expand...
Big difference between this year and 1984-85 is that there are no signs of a big stratospheric warming event on the horizon. The one in Dec 1984 was one of the strongest ever observed and sent the polar vortex tumbling into eastern N America. Seems like a rather extreme scenario to hope for
 
Webberweather53 said:
Big difference between this year and 1984-85 is that there are no signs of a big stratospheric warming event on the horizon. The one in Dec 1984 was one of the strongest ever observed and sent the polar vortex tumbling into eastern N America. Seems like a rather extreme scenario to hope for
Click to expand...

It is a very extreme scenario to hope for no doubt. But at least ENSO is similar and the MJO may be in cold phases later this month. Also, didn’t Bastardi recently claim a new SSW is on the way this month? He’s an overhyping weenie of course and always looks ahead when it is mild in winter. But might he be right about a new SSW?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Big difference between this year and 1984-85 is that there are no signs of a big stratospheric warming event on the horizon. The one in Dec 1984 was one of the strongest ever observed and sent the polar vortex tumbling into eastern N America. Seems like a rather extreme scenario to hope for
Click to expand...
That winter 84. 85 is about a once lifetime event to be honest … remember that winter really well. Went from 70s December here to minus 10 middle January with bout total 35 inches snow all total here west Tennessee
 
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