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Pattern December to Remember

The downstream atmospheric traffic jam over Europe that kickstarts the -NAO in the extended begins to develop by day 5 on most NWP models

1639623600-Jhs3NhcYJEQ.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The downstream atmospheric traffic jam over Europe that kickstarts the -NAO in the extended begins to develop by day 5 on most NWP models

1639623600-Jhs3NhcYJEQ.png
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Is that a cold look for up my way also? I’ve learned we don’t seem to have big variances from highs to lows!? A lot of 30-35 degree highs with 20-25 degree lows. Seems odd to me
 
Tarheel1 said:
Is that a cold look for up my way also? I’ve learned we don’t seem to have big variances from highs to lows!? A lot of 30-35 degree highs with 20-25 degree lows. Seems odd to me
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-PNA/-EPO/-NAO are usually much more reliable for cold in the Great Plains than the SE US, no doubt about it
 
SD said:
A -pna/-nao infused with legit cold air could get really fun if you are on the right side of the likely gradient that sets up
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Without the PNA would we truly get legit cold air released into the east? I don't think so. It would seem like mostly the cold air from -NAO comes from SE Canada confluence. I guess I just want the true polar cold up in NW Canada to finally release down, not the cold in NY to come down the wedge. Just can't get excited about SE ridge and hopeful Miller Bs wedges. They really haven't worked for a long time imby. But I guess it's not what we got now at least.
 
SnowNiner said:
Without the PNA would we truly get legit cold air released into the east? I don't think so. It would seem like mostly the cold air from -NAO comes from SE Canada confluence. I guess I just want the true polar cold up in NW Canada to finally release down, not the cold in NY to come down the wedge. Just can't get excited about SE ridge and hopeful Miller Bs wedges. They really haven't worked for a long time imby. But I guess it's not what we got now at least.
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What we need to hope for is that cutoff retrograding to the GOA and it pumping a +PNA and it rexing, pumping the -EPO, sort of like this (yes this was May 2020 lol) DABB8993-435C-41D3-B16C-4445F46E4B19.gif
 
SnowNiner said:
Without the PNA would we truly get legit cold air released into the east? I don't think so. It would seem like mostly the cold air from -NAO comes from SE Canada confluence. I guess I just want the true polar cold up in NW Canada to finally release down, not the cold in NY to come down the wedge. Just can't get excited about SE ridge and hopeful Miller Bs wedges. They really haven't worked for a long time imby. But I guess it's not what we got now at least.
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Yeah I think so. A lot of that cold air that enters SE Canada also starts to get tapped into from Siberia (via -EPO) as we get past Christmas.

Also worth mentioning that the biggest snow events for the SW piedmont of NC into upstate SC tend to come from cut-off upper lows &/or very deep, cold CAD/overrunning events (Feb 2014, Jan 1988, Feb 1969, Feb 2004, etc.). Miller A cyclones that are more frequent during +PNA, tend to screw over places like Charlotte & Greenville-Spartanburg, SC, leaving most of the snow in the mtns or in the coastal plain-eastern piedmont. If we see enough preceding storms to build legit snow cover upstream over the mid-Atlantic, New England, & SE Canada, gotta like your chances in that part of NC.
 
Interesting how we got a little trend to a short -EPO next week, although it’s short lived, it’ll certainly send colder air into Canada vs a run of the mill GOA ridge, also the NA trough is digging a bit more and pumping heights out ahead, which increases the chance of a -NAO, and that cutoff under that block is trending stronger which increases the strength of the Rex block via more intense wave breaking FD535499-B6D4-4453-B3B3-DB87CCDA7909.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Typically means more mixed precip, but our areas do far better in Miller B setups snow wise as well
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You are correct… the problem with Miller As for CLT metro is just how sharp that cut off is on the NW edge. You can go from 4-6”+ to nothing in a matter of 10-15 miles, and usually CLT metro is on the wrong side of that. Every now and then a January 2002 will happen, but I would much rather take my chance with a Miller B
 
Since today's focus seems to be the EPO (hmmmmm), I'm sharing this for anyone who wants a little background at a very basic and understandable level (i.e., sans the nuances) ...

www.worldclimateservice.com

4 Important Impacts of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation was related to a very cold 2019 Halloween in the midwest US. Read about it here.
www.worldclimateservice.com www.worldclimateservice.com
 
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Well since Jan ‘88 was brought up, just thought I would give a friendly reminder of the 5H pattern as one of those “best case scenarios” for widespread SE storm. Interesting in that the EPO was very negative, although there were low heights along the west coast, and a very positive NAO. Some of our best storms are when we have low heights throughout the continent, allowing high presssure to keep storms suppressed and also allowing energy to easily ride underneath it from west to east.
 
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