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Pattern December to Remember

That W Pac typhoon supercharges the -EPO on this GFS run

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Based off what ? Imo I still like After Christmas/early jan the GFS often is to quick
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We're getting quite a few operational runs off and on out in this timeframe threatening an artic outbreak along with various storm signals that week. Just the latest 12zGFS with cold air in place with a reinforcing shot following along with a robust low pressure near S. Florida is intriguing, to say the least.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Need that cutoff close to the GOA we always make these cutoffs/-EPOs work in spring seemingly
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If it were able to retrograde under the ridge trying to nose into AK to its north the gfs would have printed out silly cold numbers. Nice trend to see but let's see if there's any legitimacy in the look within the gefs or the other models today
 
SD said:
If it were able to retrograde under the ridge trying to nose into AK to its north the gfs would have printed out silly cold numbers. Nice trend to see but let's see if there's any legitimacy in the look within the gefs or the other models today
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Still so far away at this point almost everything at that range could just be noice .. updated MJO forecasts may be helpful in trying to grind down generally where we’re headed in that period
 
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SD said:
Cutoff out west progresses east and starts to muck things up starting Christmas day View attachment 97370
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Enjoy the cold while you have it! Don’t be looking at how we screw it up in 19 days! ?and I’m trying to look at the brighter side of things these days! After 35 and rain today and tonight, I get to finish with a deform band and 35mph winds! ❄️☃️?8E617947-989B-4843-95D7-EC0BA2B756C2.png
 
More excellent work by BAMWX. Their forecast is laid out clear and concise.

Myself, I would not expect much of a chance of snow except in the mountains as the storm track could favor inland paths

 

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SD said:
Okhotsk low digging, epo building and shifting east. I might need a private momentView attachment 97382
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The West Pac typhoon superposed onto the pre-existing West Pac MJO forcing shortens the wavelengths & increases the amplitude of the wave pattern in the N Pacific. Good to see the GEFS has also finally come around to what the EPS has been showing for days now.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Even down towards CLT/the upstate, historically those areas do far better with Miller Bs then Miller As, which Miller As are heavily favored with +PNAs, while Miller Bs are favored with -PNAs and -NAOs
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A -pna/-nao infused with legit cold air could get really fun if you are on the right side of the likely gradient that sets up
 
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