Pattern December to Remember

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SD said:
I just noticed the euro actually has 3 rain events with the 3rd firing up at D10. Wouldn't erase the dry anomalies but would certainly help recharge the water table and stream flows. This would likely be the highest 10 day rain totals for a good part of the state since probably early augustView attachment 96608
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The good news is in the longer-term when you see big Pacific MJO events like this, the southern branch of the jet will temporarily get a nice momentum boost from all the convection in the west-central Pacific, yielding a wetter pattern overall once we get to phase 7-8. The one wrinkle may be how strong the SE US ridge is by that point, because it could mean the difference between heavier rains closer to coastal sections of the SE or more into the TN and lower MS valley.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The good news is in the longer-term when you see big Pacific MJO events like this, the southern branch of the jet will temporarily get a nice momentum boost from all the convection in the west-central Pacific, yielding a wetter pattern overall once we get to phase 7-8. The one wrinkle may be how strong the SE US ridge is by that point, because it could mean the difference between heavier rains closer to coastal sections of the SE or more into the TN and lower MS valley.
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Yeah I worry that we will see the main precip axis end up from Ms/La/TX into the Ohio valley and mid Atlantic. I just hope atleast through D10 that we can keep heights down enough and enough weak wedging around we can capitalize because after d10 the better precip certainly seems to be focused in the more typical nina areas
 
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Lol the GFS tries to produce a tropical cyclone in the Gulf. Honestly that's more likely than any of us seeing snow between now and the 3rd week of Dec.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_63.png
 
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SD said:
I really want to start a drought thread but to be honest I'm not sure exactly what we would post in it other than no rain
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Well it could be merged with the fire thread then any and all post that are dry weather related (idk fires, water levels, etc) could go in there I guess.
 
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