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Pattern December to Remember

NoSnowATL said:
Yea I feel like we avg 1 good storm every 5-10 years. I can remember like 5-6 good one in my short 36 years.
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When you look at snow events on a % or return period basis you really start to see how infrequent big events are. I've seen a foot plus in 39 years so my yearly chance is what a little over 5% even 6+ the %chance only gets to around 10-15. Not that great
 
Kirk Mellish had his winter outlook this morning on the radio. Called for a warm December with below rainfall, Avg Jan with below rainfall, Really warm Feb with below rainfall and a cold march with below rainfall. Snow chances will be below avg but cant rule out a freak storm with good timing but is worry about the drought. He thinks it will be bad going into spring.
 
Lickwx said:
While our droughts aren’t typically severe , we are one of the most drought prone areas in the nation, specially north ga/ upstate sc / clt area . Not sure why , wonder if down-sloping and a rain shadow affect of sorts is to blame .View attachment 96618
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Zooming in on that map, I would assume it’s downsloping that increases the frequency in those locations. It even falls off for eastern CLT metro… often times when rain breaks up over the mountains, it will start building back up quickly just east of I-77.
 
SD said:
Solid wedge on the iconView attachment 96620
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If the SE ridge really holds on through mid December as depicted right now, I got a feeling we're going to be seeing a lot of days of this right here. Those east of the Apps better get ready for a lot of cloudy 40 degree days mixed in with the 60's and 70's. West of the Apps looks like they're going to be baking for at least 2 weeks right now.
 
SD said:
I just noticed the euro actually has 3 rain events with the 3rd firing up at D10. Wouldn't erase the dry anomalies but would certainly help recharge the water table and stream flows. This would likely be the highest 10 day rain totals for a good part of the state since probably early augustView attachment 96608
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12Z GFS bringing the goods for drought relief
 
nice setup For elevated thunderstorms on top of the wedge on the icon, but man it looks like the GFS now with a full on raging dumpster fire pattern E5C63D4E-C025-40FE-8F29-3E32A7B4E9BA.pngAB47D0ED-DB28-4CBF-8688-AEE6C25B94FA.png423E284E-5B28-4799-B607-A21F78F37126.png105EA773-6A34-4AFF-9DD4-E03F4FC3739C.pngD6487691-E0CF-424B-B186-CF4DE2A474E1.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
nice setup For elevated thunderstorms on top of the wedge on the icon, but man it looks like the GFS now with a full on raging dumpster fire pattern View attachment 96621View attachment 96625View attachment 96622View attachment 96623View attachment 96624
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It’s been showing this for a while now there shouldn’t be much shock .. once we actually get to those days it’ll be interesting to feel but this isn’t shocking as it’s had the SER going flame on for like a week now
 
December's starting off with an insame temperature here (well into the double digits) and the next several days will be well above average

Will need one heck of an extended cold blast to bring the average back below normal for the month.
 
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