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Pattern December to Remember

Stephenb888 said:
Is this good or bad?
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Just means things are going about how I expected them to by this point overall. The only real wrinkle in a general sense is the stronger Scandinavian ridge that's being enhanced by La Nina & this slow moving MJO, that will probably translate to stronger -NAO down the road in week 3-4.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
So let me see if I understand this ...... Alaska cold, we torch. Alaska warm, we torch. Got it..... I really don't get that whole "Alaska has to thaw before we get cold" thing. Ridge in Alaska obviously doesn't mean what it used to mean for us.
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We saw this pattern infinitely many times in the 2010s (esp during 2012-13, 2013-14, & 2014-15), so none of this has changed.

-EPOs usually translate to SE ridge in the means & are mild over all, but w/ occasional bouts of brutally cold arctic air that can help deliver wintry weather in the deep south
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
So let me see if I understand this ...... Alaska cold, we torch. Alaska warm, we torch. Got it..... I really don't get that whole "Alaska has to thaw before we get cold" thing. Ridge in Alaska obviously doesn't mean what it used to mean for us.
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That looks like a jacked up Aluetian ridge/EPO ridge that's too far west forcing a -PNA. Definitely not pretty and probably not going anywhere anytime soon. We're going to have to rely on a -NAO and hope it materializes. With the cold shots the EPO does provide the NAO may block this up just enough to give us better odds to time something up.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We saw this pattern infinitely many times in the 2010s (esp during 2012-13, 2013-14, & 2014-15), so none of this has changed.

-EPOs usually translate to SE ridge in the means & are mild over all, but w/ occasional bouts of brutally cold arctic air that can help deliver wintry weather in the deep south
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ScrawnyMadEnglishsetter-size_restricted.gif
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
That looks like a jacked up Aluetian ridge/EPO ridge that's too far west forcing a -PNA. Definitely not pretty and probably not going anywhere anytime soon. We're going to have to rely on a -NAO and hope it materializes. With the cold shots the EPO does provide the NAO may block this up just enough to give us better odds to time something up.
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As @Webberweather53, the MJO models, and the CFS runs have been suggesting, the best opportunity for a CAD based winter storm is about 2 weeks after this period (near 1/7/22), not this period.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is definitely one of the more insightful papers I've come across on the MJO-QBO relationship

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/18/jcli-d-19-0010.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
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When you also consider that MJO propagation into the W Hem-Indian Ocean is enhanced during -NAO and when the MJO is initially strong (like it is now)...

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/23/JCLI-D-21-0153.1.xml


I bring these papers up to say that we're stacking the deck towards MJO propagation in the long-run & from a subseasonal point of view, it seems more likely than not the MJO will run through phases 8-1 and perhaps even 2-3, which is generally a good thing for snow lovers in the eastern US.
 
Q
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
That looks like a jacked up Aluetian ridge/EPO ridge that's too far west forcing a -PNA. Definitely not pretty and probably not going anywhere anytime soon. We're going to have to rely on a -NAO and hope it materializes. With the cold shots the EPO does provide the NAO may block this up just enough to give us better odds to time something up.
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our area actually does better winter storm wise with -PNAs. Typically because our best shots at snow here are really cold CADs and overrunning events. That typically coincides with - NAO/-PNA/-EPO. +PNAs drop the hammer with the cold but typically suppress any winter storms and areas around the 95 corridor east end up getting their snows this way.
 
Webberweather53 said:
When you also consider that MJO propagation into the W Hem-Indian Ocean is enhanced during -NAO and when the MJO is initially strong (like it is now)...

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/23/JCLI-D-21-0153.1.xml


I bring these papers up to say that we're stacking the deck towards MJO propagation in the long-run & from a subseasonal point of view, it seems more likely than not the MJO will run through phases 8-1 and perhaps even 2-3, which is generally a good thing for snow lovers in the eastern US.
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The easterly phase of the QBO is descending into the lower stratosphere. Should give the MJO a nice boost/helping hand to propagate through the W Hem (phases 8-1) during January.

Screen Shot 2021-12-11 at 2.17.26 PM.png


Singapore_t.png



qbo_plot_eof.png
 
Feel like that trough and it’s associated low in Canada/NW of the GLs needs to get out of here and get replaced with higher heights, and that introduces chances of classical CAD/ strong banana high and not some weak in-situ CAD event, the look at H5 honestly isn’t far off from some solid ice event 3FC7DEFB-3701-4BF6-BF77-39C386C68F23.pngD9A48902-2D3E-46BC-A531-D9FB8CE79333.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Feel like that trough and it’s associated low in Canada/NW of the GLs needs to get out of here and get replaced with higher heights, and that introduces chances of classical CAD/ string banana high and not some weak in-situ CAD event, the look at H5 honestly isn’t far off from some solid ice event View attachment 97577View attachment 97578
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No such thing as a solid ice event man. Cold rain is better. No one wants ice
 
Ollie Williams said:
I disagree. The results of this site contradict that.

How much do you like Freezing Rain?

There's a lot of controversy over this, so I'm interested to find out the results.
southernwx.com
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I use to be in that I don’t want ZR camp, but I’ve switched. Seeing any type of winter precip is a rarity nowadays here, gotta cherish anything that’s frozen nowadays
 
NorthDFWwx said:
So wait, discussion about weather in Texas is ok now?

When I discussed our hot temperatures this past Summer/Fall, I was lambasted by more than one member for posting because Texas isn't in the Southeast. ?
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It's always been okay. As a site, we've never discriminated against people outside of the SE. Some people are just rude.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
So wait, discussion about weather in Texas is ok now?

When I discussed our hot temperatures this past Summer/Fall, I was lambasted by more than one member for posting because Texas isn't North Carolina. ?
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I fixed your post, you're welcome :)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I use to be in that I don’t want ZR camp, but I’ve switched. Seeing any type of winter precip is a rarity nowadays here, gotta cherish anything that’s frozen nowadays
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Honestly for our area, our ice storms over the last 15 years have turned into sleet storms anyway which I don’t mind one bit
 
NorthDFWwx said:
So wait, discussion about weather in Texas is ok now?

When I discussed our hot temperatures this past Summer/Fall, I was lambasted by more than one member for posting because Texas isn't in the Southeast. ?
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IMO if there’s people in here from other states outside of the southeast it’s okay to talk about them
 
iGRXY said:
Q

our area actually does better winter storm wise with -PNAs. Typically because our best shots at snow here are really cold CADs and overrunning events. That typically coincides with - NAO/-PNA/-EPO. +PNAs drop the hammer with the cold but typically suppress any winter storms and areas around the 95 corridor east end up getting their snows this way.
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Indeed, when I look at very heavy RDU winter storms (I chose the 22 6”+ for minimum needed, which means mainly or all snow in just about all cases) since 1950, a +PNA was favored a pretty decent amount:

+PNA (+0.25+): 11 storms (50%)
Neutral PNA (-0.25 to +0.25): 7 storms (32%)
-PNA (-0.25-): 4 storms (18%)

I did this research a few years ago. So, for RDU for heavy snowstorms, there’s a partial correlation with a +PNA. I think ATL major snows (I use 3.5”+ for there) is similar but I don’t have the exact numbers readily available.

Note that this isn’t for mainly ZR/IP, which keep the total under 6”, These probably prefer a -PNA to neutral PNA for the reason you stated. I don’t know for sure though.

I think what it boils down to is that classic major SE Miller A snowstorms prefer neutral to +PNA as opposed to CAD based Miller B icestorms, which probably prefer neutral to -PNA. For the +PNA big snows, the mean trough normally needs to be fairly close to the Mississippi River so that it doesn’t suppress the storm track too far south.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
So wait, discussion about weather in Texas is ok now?

When I discussed our hot temperatures this past Summer/Fall, I was lambasted by more than one member for posting because Texas isn't in the Southeast. ?
Click to expand...

Ollie Williams said:
It's always been okay. As a site, we've never discriminated against people outside of the SE. Some people are just rude.
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What Ollie said. I've personally found having folks from outside of the region posting nice and if we grow more within the region or outside it'll be even more fun.
 
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