Pattern December to Remember

[StormWatch]

Taking a look at the CFSv2 - it shows a colder period (short lived) in 10 days especially for the upper portion of the Southeast. The model is showing a Bermuda high that dominates and amplifies warming the entire Eastern US after day 10, but that's still in question if that would occur. Both GEFS and EPS shows this colder short lived period as well. As the colder air begins transitioning across the Canadian border into the northern portion of the US, of course a front would develop with a storm system. Questions still remain as well about the storm system of how it would evolve, it would also depend on what happens with the blocking over the Atlantic.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The trend this GFS run almost makes it identical to the icon this run

 

[Stephenb888]

If anyone has the time, what was the setup that got us the winter storm in Jan 2014 that came up through Atlanta. What were the models showing a week or two out before the storm?

 

[Tarheel1]

The trend this GFS run almost makes it identical to the icon this run View attachment 96468

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Lots of wedges in our future

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Check out the PV waving howdy neighbor

 

[Webberweather53]

The 0z ensemble runs are giving us a harsh reality check

Run over run changes are ?

 

[NCSNOW]

These early April storm tracks are fabulous for mountain snows out west though.


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Even Tahoe hasnt been able to open up yet. Tried twice now

 

[NCSNOW]

Hard enough to get actual winter wx to verify here in a good winter. New Challenge this year is just trying to find Digital Fanatsy stuff. Anyway, heres the best I can do . Not alot to work with. My goal this winter is to get 60 minutes of flakes to fly and dust the mulch, so we can say we avoided the shutout. Got my bar/standards as low as they go, even after considering 20-30 Heavy Frost as a neutral comprimise. Anything above the stated goal is a major victory this season. Long Live the La-Nina

7 Days out:
GFS

Canadian

Euro says Not So Fast: Does get some backside/post front flakes latter next week northern Mtns:

 

[Myfrotho704_]

06z gefs really was a big improvement

 

[NCSNOW]

Silver Lining: Last Year we had Below Normal temps D,J,F all winter: yet RDU only got an inch an half of snow. So why we should expect this winter to avg above normal Temp wise. This article says like 49 out of 50 La nina winters have avg AN.
Great Read from WRAL, esp you Raleigh Guys who might have missed it. Check out the Avg Snow climo, 30 yr avg and 10 yr avg/ Compare.

La Niña pattern could mean good news for snow lovers in WRAL's winter outlook

The winter months are almost here, so it's time for the WRAL Severe Weather Center's winter outlook.

www.wral.com

 

[Webberweather53]

06z gefs really was a big improvement

Setting ourselves up to get pimp slapped by the 12z runs

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Setting ourselves up to get pimp slapped by the 12z runs

At the end of the day we know the next 15 days or so will air on the side of warm there’s no escaping that but can we time up a cold front or two that develops good CAD with a trailing wave to make dreams come true for someone. Probably not but we’re in for some cold rains it looks like regardless

 

[SD]

The end of the 6z gfs was getting to where I would like to see us go for the 2nd half of December into early Jan. Its not quite there and it's not a beauty at D16 but it's baby steps

The end of the gefs was moving in that direction as well.

The end of the eps is getting there too

 

[SNOWMANN]

The end of the 6z gfs was getting to where I would like to see us go for the 2nd half of December into early Jan. Its not quite there and it's not a beauty at D16 but it's baby stepsView attachment 96475

The end of the gefs was moving in that direction as well. View attachment 96476

The end of the eps is getting there tooView attachment 96477

We gotta thaw alaska lol

 

[SD]

We gotta thaw alaska lol

Basically lol. Going to have to get some type of positive amplification in that region or we are just going to sit in this same look until march it feels like

 

[SNOWMANN]

Basically lol. Going to have to get some type of positive amplification in that region or we are just going to sit in this same look until march it feels like

Its funny how for years everyone was saying we need an -NAO to get wall to wall cold and the cold air needed to be on our side of the globe......well we got both and still torch just goes to show how many variables are at play with weather.

 

[bigstick10]

The long range looks horrific.

 

[SnowNiner]

Basically lol. Going to have to get some type of positive amplification in that region or we are just going to sit in this same look until march it feels like

To me it's really as simple as that. Until we shut off pacific flow into the conus, we're just going to be warm, or at best cool. The -NAO last year kept us cool and wedgy just enough to give us several bouts of cold of a rain as possible. Right now without it, it just looks warm. And it's just awesome that all the teleconnections turn the day we enter into meteorological winter. ?? It's amazing how that happens. ?‍

Here's to a January turn around.