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Pattern December to Remember

The 12z EPS doesn't look bad at all - it would be great if the North Atlantic blocking goes towards Greenland and poleward, -NAO. Perhaps the blocking will not build along the eastern US - if so, cutter city. I like this look though, there's even some weak blocking from eastern Europe that extends into the higher latitudes - a good thing. Lower heights over AK perhaps, the lower heights could force the sinking air towards the western US, if so, the cold air mass would force further to the southeast - we'll see how it plays out. This pattern wouldn't bring extreme cold to the Southeast, but it's a way better look than seeing a massive ridge over the Continental US.
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This is why I don’t trust the operational or even any model at this point .. check out where the piece of energy comes from that initiates the response of the SER and dumps the cold out west .. literally comes from off the map and it’s such a small tiny piece of energy at the same time … this piece is key in creating those downstream effects and if the model loses it at any time that SER response doesn’t happen I don’t believe.. any energy coming from so far away just makes me think it hasn’t been sampled as well and therefor we can’t trust the outputs of these operationals at least 1638311566470.gif
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This is why I don’t trust the operational or even any model at this point .. check out where the piece of energy comes from that initiates the response of the SER and dumps the cold out west .. literally comes from off the map and it’s such a small tiny piece of energy at the same time … this piece is key in creating those downstream effects and if the model loses it at any time that SER response doesn’t happen I don’t believe.. any energy coming from so far away just makes me think it hasn’t been sampled as well and therefor we can’t trust the outputs of these operationals at least View attachment 96440
Click to expand...
You sure you just don’t agree with it just because it doesn’t show what you like ?
 
Here’s that wedge we’re watching .. the surrounding high pressure got weaker or just shifted more offshore this run but this will be the thing we’re watching going forward for any type of ice event mountains and climo areas obviously would have the better chance at seeing any onset iceC14C64B8-99EA-40D9-9D3C-E13DE724CAD3.jpeg52D34C77-A1BC-4E3E-AEFE-FA8FE108C49B.jpeg
 
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