We need the rain so that's a positive.
With those GFS temps and a little rain, the grass might start growing again.
Wouldn't be a bad time to reseed of you lost anything.
Complete polar opposite to snow.
December phase 7 looking noiceGonna be keeping an eye on the MJO the next few weeks. The bias-corrected ECMWF monthly forecast from yesterday is probably one of the more realistic ones overall, keeping the MJO milling around w/ amplitude between phase 6-7 for basically the rest of December, which signals warmth overall in the SE US and cold intruding into the N Rockies + upper Midwest (canonical NINA pattern)
The reason I say this is when you breakdown the daily probability (%) of seeing a winter storm in NC (east of the mtns) by MJO phase and month, what really stands out is MJO phase 7 in January w/ nearly a 16% chance of a winter storm per day, higher than any other phase in any month, phase 8 & null are a somewhat close seconds in January. This likely has a lot to do w/ the subtropical jet becoming more active & a -NAO tendency being favored when the MJO moves towards the west-central Pacific (phase 7). If the CFS and EPS + empirical wave propagation for a slow-moving La Nina MJO event (i.e. history) are generally to be believed, we could see this come to fruition in/around early January. I.e. the most favorable window for a winter storm may be in this time period
Chart is shown below: NC Winter Storm Probability by MJO phase & month since 1974.
Most favorable phase overall (red/bold, Jan Phase 7), most favorable phase per month (orange/bold), 2nd & 3rd most favorable (yellow/bold)
View attachment 96701
Data source:
Nov-Mar Daily Teleconnections and NC Winter Storms List (1948-2021)
Also the spread in those MJO runs is kind of crazyGonna be keeping an eye on the MJO the next few weeks. The bias-corrected ECMWF monthly forecast from yesterday is probably one of the more realistic ones overall, keeping the MJO milling around w/ amplitude between phase 6-7 for basically the rest of December, which signals warmth overall in the SE US and cold intruding into the N Rockies + upper Midwest (canonical NINA pattern)
The reason I say this is when you breakdown the daily probability (%) of seeing a winter storm in NC (east of the mtns) by MJO phase and month, what really stands out is MJO phase 7 in January w/ nearly a 16% chance of a winter storm per day, higher than any other phase in any month, phase 8 & null are a somewhat close seconds in January. This likely has a lot to do w/ the subtropical jet becoming more active & a -NAO tendency being favored when the MJO moves towards the west-central Pacific (phase 7). If the CFS and EPS + empirical wave propagation for a slow-moving La Nina MJO event (i.e. history) are generally to be believed, we could see this come to fruition in/around early January. I.e. the most favorable window for a winter storm may be in this time period
Chart is shown below: NC Winter Storm Probability by MJO phase & month since 1974.
Most favorable phase overall (red/bold, Jan Phase 7), most favorable phase per month (orange/bold), 2nd & 3rd most favorable (yellow/bold)
View attachment 96701
Data source:
Nov-Mar Daily Teleconnections and NC Winter Storms List (1948-2021)
7 is a cool phase in our region but not really cold. Also a lot will depend on the amplitude it goes into to make a difference here, although it is better than 6
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I like where we are headed into the new year .. phase 8 in January would be a sight for sore eyesHere is the Euro MJO forecast for the next 30 days
To me this says we go very briefly into 7 but then right back into 6 around mid-month and then meanders into 7 the rest of the month, albeit at a lower amplitude
Already warming I see was pink into sc/NC areas
Mid 70s are probably close to records aren't they ?
Daily records sure , today’s record is 77. Monthly no, no threat of getting remotely close . Even that daily record is almost certainly safe
The NAM has been way too cold here on a consistent basis ever since the monsoon season ended. Been having to constantly tweak my bias correction forecast scheme to keep up with these high temp forecasts that constantly bust too low
That is from a cold front passage, however, if this is true - it maybe the transition to a colder pattern afterwards. As Eric has mentioned, there's going to be cold fronts in the midst of this warmer pattern. Eventually, there's going to be that one cold front that causes the change as the pattern alters in the higher latitudes.
If there’s no process going on that would provide cooler temps you almost always have to lean on the warmer side of things that’s almost always how it goes here since I’ve lived here
The record in CLT today is 75 from 1998. It’s already 70 at the airport now so I’m thinking it ends up maxing out about 77-78
Not everyday you see +20 anomalies on a ensemble 
As a former California resident I beg to differ. As far as comfortable / Nice weather goes the southeast maybe has 2 or 3 months tops that compares to Southern California. That said I am much more in favor of the weather out here vs California.
