Pattern December to Remember

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS isn’t as cold as the 6Z around 12/5-6, but it looks to come in colder around 12/9 and beyond with an impressive +PNA! This actually would line up well with the move of the MJO to phase 7 and headed to 8.

Same as 12Z GEFS for 12Z EPS except it is colder throughout the run! Nice +PNA reappears! It is a cold reversal.

Edit: not colder throughout the run. It warms up late.

 

[SD]

 

[SD]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just went home with a fever with my monthly addition of get sick !! So here’s the EPS for yall, shallow western ridge

 

[SnowNiner]

Can we trade this pattern for a better one

I will gladly trade a pesky greenland block for an equally pesky Alaskan/west coast block.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

@SD how does that eps spread look now for the coming weeks?

 

[SD]

@SD how does that eps spread look now for the coming weeks?

Temp charts or the hemisphere maps?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Temp charts or the hemisphere maps?

Temp charts

 

[SD]

Temp charts

12z isn't available yet I'll post once they are. Honestly not a ton of change post D10 on the mean so I'd guess they are still chaotic.

 

[SD]

Not great but the Ural ridging might pay out later

 

[SD]

Temp charts

Inching warmer post D10

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Inching warmer post D10View attachment 96271
View attachment 96272

Getting close to 80F as maxes in December ? Wtf

 

[SD]

Getting close to 80F as maxes in December ? Wtf

Did you miss the gfs? Lol

 

[Mr. Golf]

Did you miss the gfs? Lol

SD, I didn't think the mjo charts looked that bad to me imo if they are anywhere close to accurate

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

I say this every year around this time. Fact is most places in the southeast will rarely see a decent snow before January. Since 2006 I’ve had one December that gave me a 2 inch plus snow event which was in 2010. Last year was only the second time I’ve had even a one inch snow before January. That storm happened on November 30th which was also the only November I’ve ever had a snow storm that produced an inch. Snow is fun to track but no one should think winter is done or doomed based off what’s happening at the very end of November into December.

I'm surprised being near Kentucky that snow in December is so rare there.

 

[SD]

SD, I didn't think the mjo charts looked that bad to me imo if they are anywhere close to accurate

Might be seeing a case where a bad high latitude pattern is overwhelming the pattern and can withstand the forcing from the tropics, we had a similar issue in either 18/19 or 19/20. Also looks like the euro retrogrades the mjo back into p6 which becomes a SER phase as we move through December.

 

[SD]

FYI the end of the gefs is going where you want this pattern to potentially go with the Ural ridge, trough into eastern Siberia and the ridge getting forced into AK

 

[SD]

FYI the end of the gefs is going where you want this pattern to potentially go with the Ural ridge, trough into eastern Siberia and the ridge getting forced into AKView attachment 96273
View attachment 96274

And you can see in the gefs spread some of the members go into the freezer late in the run

 

[Mr. Golf]

Might be seeing a case where a bad high latitude pattern is overwhelming the pattern and can withstand the forcing from the tropics, we had a similar issue in either 18/19 or 19/20. Also looks like the euro retrogrades the mjo back into p6 which becomes a SER phase as we move through December.

The models and ensembles are trying to come to consensus of SSW development moving forward. Obviously still early in the game.

 

[Rain Cold]

Funny how when there's a ridge over AK, we're warm, but when there's a trough over AK, we're warm.