Mr. Golf
Member
Expect more changes at 0z most likely
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
There seems to be decent agreement that the strat is going to warm over north America but other than some displacement the vortex is still rocking. I'd be more excited if they were showing a split or elongation and interruption of the circulation. Maybe it'll come in time I'm not sure
Are we coupled all the way up? I haven't looked at the charts recently. Honestly, I have kind of lost interest in worrying about the stratosphere unless we're tightly wound down low. It's too complicated to predict the impacts. Does it warm at 50mb or all the way up to 10mb? What's the lag time? Does it get displaced? If so, where? Does it split? Does it get back together quickly? Does it cause the troposphere PV to move into east central Canada? Or Siberia? Is it coupled? Etc.
That's a lot of questions. I'll have a response by the time it gets cold
Mr. Golf
Member
Supposedly the -qbo helps promote a SSW but not sure if true or not. We got lucky last February to have it on our side
Mr. Golf
Member
If its warm this winter, no suprise at all. The thing is getting enough cold air and moisture to marry each other to bring in a winter event in our area.
SnowNiner
Member
Agree with that. Strat stuff is most valuable as a rationale to determine why the winter went so wrong come mid March. Until then it's all sand in the wind.
cd2play
Member
So many ifs.
LickWx
Member
I disagree , it’s been cold in Alaska and cold here for a while .
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah that’s a good recipe for a winter storm here mr golf. Moisture and
Yeah more above average temps …
Strat is bad = ruins our weather pattern
Strat is good = still no guarantee you get cold, maybe some more blocking
basically, strat ain’t crap most of the time but it’s fun to look at
Strat is good = still no guarantee you get cold, maybe some more blocking
basically, strat ain’t crap most of the time but it’s fun to look at
tennessee storm
Member
Exactly, great point I have see. Many ssw events backfire on us if it does happen
Sure can ruin spring when it breaks down
Brent
Member
To be fair most of last winter was warm too
Everyone just remembers the week and a half in February
Basically I haven't been impressed in a December in many years for winter weather(definitely not since I was in Alabama years ago and even then meh usually)
This is honestly why I’ve stopped paying attention until they actually occur. There is no way of knowing when they do happen of where the cold air gets dumped… North America or Europe. Even still there are other factors still at play. Last year we had the SSW, the cold dumped in North America, but the MJO amped up in a bad phase causing the SER to flex.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The CFSv2's one-month lead forecast is usually pretty good on the doorstep of the following month (Dec in this case). No surprise, the latest runs are an all out blowtorch for the nation as a whole, the US east coast gets spared the brunt of the warmest anomalies, but still above normal for most. In all honesty, it seems more reasonable than Joe Bastardi's forecast for BN temps.
The CFSv2's one-month lead forecast is usually pretty good on the doorstep of the following month (Dec in this case). No surprise, the latest runs are an all out blowtorch for the nation as a whole, the US east coast gets spared the brunt of the warmest anomalies, but still above normal for most. In all honesty, it seems more reasonable than Joe Bastardi's forecast for BN temps.
LickWx
Member
Dude, didn't they teach you how to not post Facebook screenshots on here? Anyways, I would have to wonder if there is eventually a big dump of cold air, like record-type air over the mountain west at some point. Especially considering its sitting just above them in Canada. I feel like I have read about some of that region's worst cold outbreaks and it followed bouts like this. Hot take- there is going to be a big cold blast in the west eventually, during that record cold period the east will bake before finally the cold moves east, though moderated. Could be a Jan 2005 scenario where we got 11 days at or above 70 during the first 15 days of the month then the second half was almost entirely 30s and 40s. Or could be an outright jan 1950.
GFS is hell bent on a southeast ridge, which is interesting considering it’s normally progressive 
We still CAD