Pattern December to Remember

[NickyBGuarantee]

This seems like a legit chance to score before the pattern warms up quite a bit … all we need is a chance ??

 

[SD]

Eps looked similar to the gefs with overall lower heights across much of the US through D10 but the SER comes back around d9/10 but a little more muted. The big change is more Aleutian/east Asian ridging past D10 with more troughing in AK into the PNW. Not sure if there's enough there to really amp the ridge and push the ridge into AK and really unleash the cold into the conus US in about 20 days

 

[SD]

So 12z euro and ensembles join the party … any ice members on the EPS?

Not sure of wxbell codes ice as snow on the members but meh at best

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This seems like a legit chance to score before the pattern warms up quite a bit … all we need is a chance ??

Man it’s just 5 gefs ensembles with not much other support, and a couple EPS members, there’s not a legit chance right now just noise of 1 ensemble run for each suite, a legit chance is something consistent and under hour 180, the pattern at H5 isn’t even great in the pacific yet. this is how you set yourself up for disappointment, sure those GEFS members were nice to look at, but we see that every winter

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Man it’s just 5 gefs ensembles with not much other support, and a couple EPS members, there’s not a legit chance right now just noise of 1 ensemble run for each suite, a legit chance is something consistent and under hour 180, the pattern at H5 isn’t even great in the pacific yet. this is how you set yourself up for disappointment, sure those GEFS members were nice to look at, but we see that every winter

Trend is our friend buddy that’s all I’m saying ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The euro was still very warm I didn’t realize this lol
Also 60F temp spreads on the EPS the most I’ve ever seen

 

[cd2play]

It’s almost like December is not a winter month anymore, more like an extension of fall, kind of like September is sn extension of summer.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s almost like December is not a winter month anymore, more like an extension of fall, kind of like September is sn extension of summer.

To be fair dec 17/dec 18 did have big winter storms in the SE

 

[NCSNOW]

This is disappointing and frustrating, we need a shetley sighting View attachment 96412

Shettley is Gonna Be King on Here over the next year.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Chazwin]

It’s almost like December is not a winter month anymore, more like an extension of fall, kind of like September is sn extension of summer.

and it almost feels like that March and April have become an extension of winter with the late cool spells we’ve been having the last few years

 

[Metwannabe]

Man it’s just 5 gefs ensembles with not much other support, and a couple EPS members, there’s not a legit chance right now just noise of 1 ensemble run for each suite, a legit chance is something consistent and under hour 180, the pattern at H5 isn’t even great in the pacific yet. this is how you set yourself up for disappointment, sure those GEFS members were nice to look at, but we see that every winter

And even they weren't that great

 

[Metwannabe]

The euro was still very warm I didn’t realize this lol View attachment 96416
Also 60F temp spreads on the EPS the most I’ve ever seen View attachment 96415

This is comical but does in fact show the volatility. Over/under 2 percent chance those members with highs in the teens verify and I'll take the under lol

 

[Webberweather53]

Your lawn mowers are smiling.

 

[Webberweather53]

Your lawn mowers are smiling.

This year will probably make this the 11th warmer than normal December in a row in the Carolinas. This is getting ridiculous.

 

[Webberweather53]

Sigh

 

[SD]

This year will probably make this the 11th warmer than normal December in a row in the Carolinas. This is getting ridiculous.

I'm going to use this to forget that

 

[LickWx]

I'm going to use this to forget thatView attachment 96430

I think that’s plausible , I think at some point there’s going to be a lot of cold in the US. Places further west have best chance at getting it .

 

[GaWx]

Your lawn mowers are smiling.

This is expected due to the expected very warm first 3 weeks. But recent runs of this crappy model do show cooling just in time for holidays perhaps MJO induced:

Then there’s a transition between cold airmasses:



And then the first half of January looks pretty good right now fwiw (which isn’t much of course):

 

[ATLwxfan]

This year will probably make this the 11th warmer than normal December in a row in the Carolinas. This is getting ridiculous.

Dare I say…pre-emergent?


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