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Pattern December to Remember

Webberweather53 said:
For some perspective, this ridge would still give us above average heights even if it happened in July

kXPpR9Zpa2.png
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At least when the bathwater sloshes, it’ll still be warm.


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Webberweather53 said:
I honestly should strongly consider making my own MJO composites (including ones for lags, phase speed, etc) and update some of those other plots for Miller As and Bs on my webpage. Think I can make the plots look a lot nicer and use better reanalysis datasets (ERA-5 instead of NCEP-R1 for ex).
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I've been playing around with the data. I'm interested in seeing the snow distribution for each phase based on geographical area as well. The only concern I have is that the sample size is so small as some phases only have a couple of snow events.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I've been playing around with the data. I'm interested in seeing the snow distribution for each phase based on geographical area as well. The only concern I have is that the sample size is so small as some phases only have a couple of snow events.
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Yep, that's the case in many instances, using a 45-60 day sliding centered window around each one could help increase sample size. Another solution would be to just "create" more data, i.e. construct an MJO index based on zonal + upper level winds, VP200, and SLPa that goes back to 1950 in ERA-5, which would afford us an additional 25 years to work w/ than current RMM MJO (1974-2021). Been trying to wrap my head around how to go about doing something like this, but it would be really useful to a lot of people and I think using those parameters is very defensible because they're easier to resolve than OLRa (used in RMM) and VP200a is more closely linked w/ the mid-latitude circulation
 
Saturday looks like a beach day! I love those kinds of days , where eastern nc is pushing 80 and very muggy in the middle of winter . I think I may head to goose creek Saturday then! Raleigh could be upper 70s as well. I also love those days because the western parts miss out on the big anomalies for a change :):cool:
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep, that's the case in many instances, using a 45-60 day sliding centered window around each one could help increase sample size. Another solution would be to just "create" more data, i.e. construct an MJO index based on zonal + upper level winds, VP200, and SLPa that goes back to 1950 in ERA-5, which would afford us an additional 25 years to work w/ than current RMM MJO (1974-2021). Been trying to wrap my head around how to go about doing something like this, but it would be really useful to a lot of people and I think using those parameters is very defensible because they're easier to resolve than OLRa (used in RMM) and VP200a is more closely linked w/ the mid-latitude circulation
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Do you have a source for the parameters that define the RMM MJO? I have worked on slicing data over a certain region, which you could use to track the MJO from the VP200 over SLP anomalies from that area. I don't know if my thoughts would work as I don't have a full understanding of the dynamics behind the MJO as you do. It gives me a headache thinking about yet again downloading 20MB of data to complete a project like this.
 
King hype. Long-range models are for entertainment purposes only.
www.tropicaltidbits.com

ECMWF Model

ECMWF model forecast of MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
www.tropicaltidbits.com

ECMWF Model

ECMWF model forecast of MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
 
GaWx said:
We’re not going to get into the cold without first getting into the warmth in this kind of pattern.

Speaking of warmth, the 12Z Euro is also a warmer run.
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Feel like we’re losing the cold look for early January, where as a few days ago, we were looking good, -epo, and all that jazz
 
Ollie Williams said:
Do you have a source for the parameters that define the RMM MJO? I have worked on slicing data over a certain region, which you could use to track the MJO from the VP200 over SLP anomalies from that area. I don't know if my thoughts would work as I don't have a full understanding of the dynamics behind the MJO as you do. It gives me a headache thinking about yet again downloading 20MB of data to complete a project like this.
Click to expand...

Yeah there's a lot that goes into it, you have to understanding filtering techniques like bandpass filtering and how to remove harmonics from the seasonal cycle (I'm weak on this admittedly) as well as ENSO. RMM utilizes OLRa, U200, and U850 w/ seasonally varying EOFs
 
GaWx said:
We’re not going to get into the cold without first getting into the warmth in this kind of pattern.

Speaking of warmth, the 12Z Euro is also a warmer run. Great news for getting outside and having fun.
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Yep models have moved toward more of a classic SER look with the western trough shifted east vs the central US ridge of a few days ago.
 
I think the NWS airport thermometer must be broken. I'm 5 miles from there and it is 45 degrees here??;)

Hourly Weather Roundup (100 PM CST TUE DEC 07 2021)

Location Sky/Weather Temp (°F) Dewpt (°F) RH (%) Wind (mph) Pressure (inHg) Remarks

Alexander City CLOUDY 48 °F 39 °F 71 % CALM 30.09F N/A

Anniston CLOUDY 47 °F 32 °F 56 % NE3 30.12F N/A

Auburn CLOUDY 51 °F 41 °F 68 % NW3 30.11F N/A

Bessemer CLOUDY 46 °F 30 °F 53 % N3 30.11F N/A

Birmingham CLOUDY 58 °F 30 °F 34 % NE5 30.11F N/A?????????????

Demopolis CLOUDY 46 °F 37 °F 71 % MISG 30.11F N/A
 
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