Pattern December to Remember

[Myfrotho704_]

Love when the jet is all the way in Canada in December , like It is 7 out of 12 months

 

[ATLwxfan]

For some perspective, this ridge would still give us above average heights even if it happened in July

At least when the bathwater sloshes, it’ll still be warm.


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[GaWx]

Well before any chance for the cold to return in a big way, we’ll have this for our outdoor pleasure per 12Z GEFS: look at that ridge for the 30 member ensemble mean!

 

[ATLwxfan]

View attachment 97100
It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas! This is the CFS mind you

If that happens, there will absolutely be leafing on some trees and plants and the potential for a dud of a peach crop next year.


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[SD]

Ho ho ho

 

[Broken024]

Here it is boys. Columbia special, right where we want it at 384 hours.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well before any chance for the cold to return in a big way, we’ll have this for our outdoor pleasure per 12Z GEFS: look at that ridge for the 30 member ensemble mean!

View attachment 97105

Don’t think most realize how insane this
Look is in dec

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Don’t think most realize how insane this
Look is in dec

If it wasn’t for this week this would easily be top 3 warmest December’s

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Y’all worried about the future too much. I’m freezing my codsack off today.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If it wasn’t for this week this would easily be top 3 warmest December’s

This week isn’t much BN, the mid 70s (near and over 20F AN ) on Saturday and very warm low temps the end of the week might still put us at + for the week by Sunday lol

 

[Webberweather53]

holy ?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

holy ?

That actually looks a little scary. Can’t even see any of nc lol

 

[ATLwxfan]

holy

Is that hellfire?


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[Tarheel1]

Here it is boys. Columbia special, right where we want it at 384 hours.
View attachment 97106

Ensembles don’t support it

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

holy ?

 

[Webberweather53]

I honestly should strongly consider making my own MJO composites (including ones for lags, phase speed, etc) and update some of those other plots for Miller As and Bs on my webpage. Think I can make the plots look a lot nicer and use better reanalysis datasets (ERA-5 instead of NCEP-R1 for ex).

 

[Ollie Williams]

I honestly should strongly consider making my own MJO composites (including ones for lags, phase speed, etc) and update some of those other plots for Miller As and Bs on my webpage. Think I can make the plots look a lot nicer and use better reanalysis datasets (ERA-5 instead of NCEP-R1 for ex).

I've been playing around with the data. I'm interested in seeing the snow distribution for each phase based on geographical area as well. The only concern I have is that the sample size is so small as some phases only have a couple of snow events.

 

[olhausen]

California is enjoying this.

God knows they need it.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Kermit falling gif

 

[Webberweather53]

I've been playing around with the data. I'm interested in seeing the snow distribution for each phase based on geographical area as well. The only concern I have is that the sample size is so small as some phases only have a couple of snow events.

Yep, that's the case in many instances, using a 45-60 day sliding centered window around each one could help increase sample size. Another solution would be to just "create" more data, i.e. construct an MJO index based on zonal + upper level winds, VP200, and SLPa that goes back to 1950 in ERA-5, which would afford us an additional 25 years to work w/ than current RMM MJO (1974-2021). Been trying to wrap my head around how to go about doing something like this, but it would be really useful to a lot of people and I think using those parameters is very defensible because they're easier to resolve than OLRa (used in RMM) and VP200a is more closely linked w/ the mid-latitude circulation