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Pattern December to Remember

Mcdowell_weather said:
Its funny how for years everyone was saying we need an -NAO to get wall to wall cold and the cold air needed to be on our side of the globe......well we got both and still torch just goes to show how many variables are at play with weather.
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I think a lot of this ties into old climo. We had a really long stretch (decades?) where the pacific was never bad other than short periods or random 1 off years so the main driver to winter weather was the NAO. Now that we certainly moved into a cycle where the pacific is more bad than good the influence/importance of the NAO gets muted and the importance of the pacific being favorable has come to the forefront. I'd rather spike a ridge through AK to the pole put the PV over Hudson Bay, have a +nao in the means and take my chances vs a -pna/-nao 35 and rain
 
SnowNiner said:
To me it's really as simple as that. Until we shut off pacific flow into the conus, we're just going to be warm, or at best cool. The -NAO last year kept us cool and wedgy just enough to give us several bouts of cold of a rain as possible. Right now without it, it just looks warm. And it's just awesome that all the teleconnections turn the day we enter into meteorological winter. ?? It's amazing how that happens. ?‍♂️

Here's to a January turn around.
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I keep harping on it but that almost standing wave type ridge near Scandinavia over to the urals becomes a big key for the rest of winter. Can it split the TPV or at least force enough southeast into east Asia so that we can really build the pac ridge? Can it build into the strat? I'm not sure but outside of a miracle with the mjo it's hard to find a lot to point at for the next 20-30 days and say yeah that's our way out
 
Mcdowell_weather said:
Its funny how for years everyone was saying we need an -NAO to get wall to wall cold and the cold air needed to be on our side of the globe......well we got both and still torch just goes to show how many variables are at play with weather.
Click to expand...
The -NAO is all that kept us from burning last year. But it can't supply the cold air as we found out. I still believe the NAO is very important to get sustained below average temps for weeks or months at a time. 13-14 is remembered as a cold snowy winter that was actually above average temp wise because the extreme cold shots were in an out. It's not a coincidence that 09-10 was wall to wall cold and featured extreme blocking. Last year we finally got another wall to wall -NAO but blew it with a bad Pac.
 
The back few days of this may warm more as they get closer due to currently being buoyed down by cold members but I don't think this is terrible. If we copy/paste this into Jan I might change my tune ecmwf-ensemble-KRDU-daily_tmin_tmax-8316800.png
 
SD said:
The back few days of this may warm more as they get closer due to currently being buoyed down by cold members but I don't think this is terrible. If we copy/paste this into Jan I might change my tune View attachment 96481
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Lol they definitely will warm more , Thursday- Saturday are 70s and today is almost certainly going to be higher than 61
 
SD said:
I keep harping on it but that almost standing wave type ridge near Scandinavia over to the urals becomes a big key for the rest of winter. Can it split the TPV or at least force enough southeast into east Asia so that we can really build the pac ridge? Can it build into the strat? I'm not sure but outside of a miracle with the mjo it's hard to find a lot to point at for the next 20-30 days and say yeah that's our way out
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The big picture I struggle with, like you mentioned is that we've had such bad pacific setups for so many winters now. I think 2014 was the last one that stood out that really helped us. I don't know as a whole what the issue is. Western troughs/SE ridge are just the pattern, and I'm patiently waiting for that pattern to break down.

Last year's popular scapegoat was the East Indian Dipole or something something? That kept us in the bad mjo mojo. It was too hot to handle, so how's that looking this year? Did it simmer down?
 
5215EE33-6B49-400A-B030-49BDD7EE7890.png
RAIN RAIN RAIN PLEASE
NC needs it more though. Praying for rain there.
 
SnowNiner said:
The big picture I struggle with, like you mentioned is that we've had such bad pacific setups for so many winters now. I think 2014 was the last one that stood out that really helped us. I don't know as a whole what the issue is. Western troughs/SE ridge are just the pattern, and I'm patiently waiting for that pattern to break down.

Last year's popular scapegoat was the East Indian Dipole or something something? That kept us in the bad mjo mojo. It was too hot to handle, so how's that looking this year? Did it simmer down?
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Nope not really. I can't find a SST anom map from last winter though
 
SD said:
I think a lot of this ties into old climo. We had a really long stretch (decades?) where the pacific was never bad other than short periods or random 1 off years so the main driver to winter weather was the NAO. Now that we certainly moved into a cycle where the pacific is more bad than good the influence/importance of the NAO gets muted and the importance of the pacific being favorable has come to the forefront. I'd rather spike a ridge through AK to the pole put the PV over Hudson Bay, have a +nao in the means and take my chances vs a -pna/-nao 35 and rain
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Agree 100%
 
2B44EBF6-CC1C-4083-A786-D173960AFB4A.png
???? No way right, just rain here in Roanoke
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If we’re going to SER hard we might as well get some action in the severe department .. 12z GFS gets us just that .. and of course you know what they say 10 days after thunder in the winter time ?
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10 days after thunder in December you get torched.
 
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