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Pattern December to Remember

Loganelliott99 said:
Was that a blowtorch ? I dint remember
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No… the week of Valentines had 2 separate storms… CLT actually recorded snowfall 5 consecutive days that week including 3 straight days with at least an inch of snow… there was a lot sleet as well. MBY ended up with 11.4 inches total for the two storms which is exactly 0.1” more than I’ve had in the nearly 8 years since.
 
Poimen said:
My good buddy MFD doing some work...offering some hope.

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If all of these teleconnections materialize like they are and we’re roaming in the phase 7 towards phase 8 MJO … man oh man I can smell the Miller B we could get outta this pattern. I’m impatient but it almost looks fool proof I’m glad we’re at-least seeing fantasy storms a little more frequently 46F975ED-1CF9-4A9B-B9E8-63C201EC0966.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If all of these teleconnections materialize like they are and we’re roaming in the phase 7 towards phase 8 MJO … man oh man I can smell the Miller B we could get outta this pattern. I’m impatient but it almost looks fool proof I’m glad we’re at-least seeing fantasy storms a little more frequently View attachment 97188
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Did you just say an hour 384 storm looks almost fool proof ? Just when I thought I’ve seen it all .
 
Lickwx said:
Did you just say an hour 384 storm looks almost fool proof ? Just when I thought I’ve seen it all .
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No. That pic was just for the fantasy storm comment. I said a period of time where all the teleconnections are in the right place along with a higher amp phase 7-8 is almost fools proof way to get something. But there’s plenty of fools in the SE me included so it’s not saying much
 
Jackpot??????F0E9F1FD-E616-4306-9C3D-227EA828AEC4.png398022EB-07C2-4FEC-B47D-541908B9985F.pngB1068B06-5594-413A-BE65-7F0B6DAFE83F.png
 
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NickyBGuarantee said:
If all of these teleconnections materialize like they are and we’re roaming in the phase 7 towards phase 8 MJO … man oh man I can smell the Miller B we could get outta this pattern. I’m impatient but it almost looks fool proof I’m glad we’re at-least seeing fantasy storms a little more frequently View attachment 97188
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Itll be interesting to see how close these runs of the gfs are come verification time. It seems like it's latched on to a system in that time period over the last few runs but with wildly varying results. I'd be impressed if it just had the timing of the system right 16 days out much less snow/ice/rain
 
SD said:
Itll be interesting to see how close these runs of the gfs are come verification time. It seems like it's latched on to a system in that time period over the last few runs but with wildly varying results. I'd be impressed if it just had the timing of the system right 16 days out much less snow/ice/rain
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I just hope we can manage any semblance of a pattern change before Christmas, that's asking a lot I know, but a slight cool down around that time would be nice. However, along with taxes and death, one other thing that is a certainty is models are too quick with pattern changes. Probably January before we have a real shot of wintry, unfortunately, but man I'd love to be wrong
 
metwannabe said:
I just hope we can manage any semblance of a pattern change before Christmas, that's asking a lot I know, but a slight cool down around that time would be nice. However, along with taxes and death, one other thing that is a certainty is models are too quick with pattern changes. Probably January before we have a real shot of wintry, unfortunately, but man I'd love to be wrong
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Agreed. Even if we could just beat the SER back enough to get some mid-upper 50s and lows around freezing for the week leading into Christmas that would work for me.
 
SD said:
Agreed. Even if we could just beat the SER back enough to get some mid-upper 50s and lows around freezing for the week leading into Christmas that would work for me.
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This is basically verbatim what the CFS shows. We moderate near normal the week of Christmas. Then we torch a bit after Christmas. Then around 1/5 the hammer drops
 
The areas that missed the rain are the typical bread winners of cad and winter weather in general. Almost like they are saving the dry air for the big Miller b. Wilkes-Surry-Mtns-Yadkin-Winston. Food for thought
 
SD said:
Current TempsView attachment 97192
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I thought upper 30s CAD wasn’t going to verify … it’s down right COLD out there .. have more time to warm up and we will probably go lower 40s but still! I was stoned for thinking this cold wedge was possible
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I thought upper 30s CAD wasn’t going to verify … it’s down right COLD out there .. have more time to warm up and we will probably go lower 40s but still! I was stoned for thinking this cold wedge was possible
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You said yesterday it was gon be 30s lol. 45 today is my prediction .
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I thought upper 30s CAD wasn’t going to verify … it’s down right COLD out there .. have more time to warm up and we will probably go lower 40s but still! I was stoned for thinking this cold wedge was possible
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Yeah not sure how much low cloudiness is going to be trapped but clearing is getting into the foothills now. May have just enough sun late to get up to 45-50 but we will see. Either way today is 100% a winter look/feel outside
 
SD said:
Yeah not sure how much low cloudiness is going to be trapped but clearing is getting into the foothills now. May have just enough sun late to get up to 45-50 but we will see. Either way today is 100% a winter look/feel outside
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Yeah, low clouds/fog/drizzle seems to be setting in atm, very wedgy out. Going to be close I think
 
SD said:
When you escape the SE but can't escape the rain snow line @Tarheel1 View attachment 97195
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I know! Nothing but backend flurries for me on Friday night! ? I’ve been watching all week, GFS has been pretty consistent with this track, I need a SE trend in the worst way! I think NAMs are coming in a little South of GFS, I thought I was never gonna have to worry about rain /mix line again! 2 counties to my N, are already under winter storm watch!
 
iGRXY said:
If we can moderate the week of Christmas or potentially get a CAD look to appear that would be great for the holiday. Christmas just doesn't feel like Christmas if we are in the 60's and 70's.
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Will say that the 6Z GFS and GEFS had us in the upper 40's low 50's for the week of Christmas so hopefully that becomes sustainable on the models.
 
GFS really getting a -NAO look Christmas week. Can see the hammer of cold air pushing SE but it's already in the lower 50's for highs.
 
One thing about this pattern is although we have a SER, as we start progressing into a pattern change which looks like the week of Christmas is when you're seeing the pieces come together, it starts to progress into a -NAO. Luckily for us east of the mountains when this starts happening you see a lot of CAD which is what keeps us in the upper 40's and lower 50's. You stay above average because the lows and highs are roughly within a few degrees of each other but you don't torch either.

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