Pattern December to Remember

[NickyBGuarantee]

First, it was supposedly going to be 30s, then low 40s at best, now its 45 and not done climbing. @NickyBGuarantee bro you are on a roll!

43 here and I’ve been saying low 40s are what is expected

 

[Cary_Snow95]

43 here and I’ve been saying low 40s are what is expected

The sun is about to pop over there. It’s legit blue skies in morrisville. Warming quick

 

[Cary_Snow95]

CFS remains consistent on big time cold developing right at the end of the year

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Still chilly here. I’ll believe all this heat when I feel it on the back of my neck.

 

[LickWx]

Saw a bit of sky here in Zebulon. Even see the sun through a hole in the clouds.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Saw a bit of sky here in Zebulon. Even see the sun through a hole in the clouds.

Looking at the sun through these clouds is so cool don’t even feel it in the eyeballs

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Very realistic time table. Multiple SER events then the big outbreak early January

 

[Tarheel1]

View attachment 97222
Very realistic time table. Multiple SER events then the big outbreak early January

Think my normal low is 11 or so, that would be impressive anomalies! ??

 

[LickWx]

View attachment 97222
Very realistic time table. Multiple SER events then the big outbreak early January

Bruh y’all are anxious ! We got hour 636 maps out here lol.

 

[pcbjr]

Bruh y’all are anxious ! We got hour 636 maps out here lol.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

WOOF ????

 

[smast16]

Welp, there goes this weekends rains.... 0.00" for today and i'm not holding my breath for Sat night anymore either.

View attachment 97209

Euro is worse.

#fail.

These troughs are coming in too positive and we're getting rain shadowed to death from the mtns.

 

[Deleted member 609]

Bruh y’all are anxious ! We got hour 636 maps out here lol.

Hey, in 500 hours it will only be 612 hours away.

 

[weatherfide]

Bruh y’all are anxious ! We got hour 636 maps out here lol.

Stuff that. My normal low is around 35 so that would be close to 0 for me. I don't want that.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Got some decent rain this morning. Not sure how much but it’s still puddled up in the yard and in my driveway.

 

[Tarheel1]

Look at the gradient up here on Saturday!?

 

[Tarheel1]

Here she comes.....

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Here she comes.....View attachment 97230

Meh. Short lived

 

[TheBatman]

Here she comes.....View attachment 97230

Meh. Short lived

It’s a start. Set back and enjoy the ride.

 

[LukeBarrette]

18z GFS says the dumping out west never ends

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Meh. Short lived

With this type of evolution you’re gonna see a short lived cold shot followed by a ser before we get into a settled cold pattern

 

[ATLwxfan]

You have to wonder about pattern persistence here. Setting up to be a tough cycle to break.


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[LickWx]

High of 48. So not only was Nicky wrong , but so was I! I said mid 40s not upper !

 

[Cary_Snow95]

18z GEFS favors a western dump that fires up the ser around Christmas

 

[SD]

36/36 mega frost watch

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GFS finally showing this bad boy again .. only a matter of time before it takes over our pattern.. is it before Christmas? The day of? January 1-10? All would be fine with me!

 

[Cary_Snow95]

GFS finally showing this bad boy again .. only a matter of time before it takes over our pattern.. is it before Christmas? The day of? January 1-10? All would be fine with me!View attachment 97233

It’ll be early to mid January imo

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 97235
It’ll be early to mid January imo

This is December 22 and you can see the pieces trying to come together overtop … I would say December 27-January 3rd is our flip period

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This is December 22 and you can see the pieces trying to come together overtop … I would say December 27-January 3rd is our flip period

If you go verbatim off of modeling. In the past modeling almost always rushes pattern changes, I don’t see this being any different. We will have multiple ser flare ups late month as the western trough keeps getting dumped. Honestly though if this sets up by mid to late January I’m more than giddy. Basically prime climo

 

[Myfrotho704_]

December to remember

 

[Webberweather53]

“December to Remember”

Yes your lawnmowers will remember this

Temp anomalies before the really warm pattern has even started ?

 

[StormWatch]

GFS finally showing this bad boy again .. only a matter of time before it takes over our pattern.. is it before Christmas? The day of? January 1-10? All would be fine with me!View attachment 97233

Are you talking about the Greenland block, the mega -NAO? Greenland block won't necessarily mess up the pattern across the Eastern US. A -NAO is typically a good thing for production of cold/winter storms. I know it's the long range GFS, but I can actually agree with that - because I mentioned that blocking can go towards Greenland and poleward as troughs forces the blocking from the upcoming cutting storms. The colder pattern between the 17th - 22nd is still a go!

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Are you talking about the Greenland block, the mega -NAO? Greenland block won't necessarily mess up the pattern across the Eastern US. A -NAO is typically a good thing for production of cold/winter storms. I know it's the long range GFS, but I can actually agree with that - because I mentioned that blocking can go towards Greenland and poleward as troughs forces the blocking from the upcoming cutting storms. The colder pattern between the 17th - 22nd is still a go!

I see nothing to lead me to believe there will be any pattern change between the 17th and 22nd. Doesn't matter how hard you look it's not there. If the MJO progression is actually correct then maybe by the 1st week in January.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Are you talking about the Greenland block, the mega -NAO? Greenland block won't necessarily mess up the pattern across the Eastern US. A -NAO is typically a good thing for production of cold/winter storms. I know it's the long range GFS, but I can actually agree with that - because I mentioned that blocking can go towards Greenland and poleward as troughs forces the blocking from the upcoming cutting storms. The colder pattern between the 17th - 22nd is still a go!

17-22th is way to early

 

[Cary_Snow95]

17-22th is way to early

He must’ve meant of January ?

 

[snowvol]

I think he means there will be a brief shot of cold around or right before Christmas then another brief warm up before we go cold. Could be little lag time.

 

[Chazwin]

I see nothing to lead me to believe there will be any pattern change between the 17th and 22nd. Doesn't matter how hard you look it's not there. If the MJO progression is actually correct then maybe by the 1st week in January.

Agreed. While I do think it’s important that models are starting to pick up on changes, I don’t think we’ll see cold pattern dominate in the east until sometime in the first week of January. That’s not to so that we won’t see some quick hitting cool shots between now and then, but we should definitely see some warm days too the last week of the month

 

[BelmontWX79]

Are you talking about the Greenland block, the mega -NAO? Greenland block won't necessarily mess up the pattern across the Eastern US. A -NAO is typically a good thing for production of cold/winter storms. I know it's the long range GFS, but I can actually agree with that - because I mentioned that blocking can go towards Greenland and poleward as troughs forces the blocking from the upcoming cutting storms. The colder pattern between the 17th - 22nd is still a go!

By "colder" you mean from mega torch to just kinda torchy.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

18z GEFS favors a western dump that fires up the ser around Christmas

Welp, I tried to reverse jinx it, but my attempt seems as if it's going to not work.

Feels as if we made a deal with the devil with 12/25-26/2010, as it seems like most, if not all of the Decembers since then have torched.

If so, I have no regrets.

 

[ATLwxfan]

I could see us going into that painful period of cold plunging to the western gulf and stalling west of the Mississippi while the ridge flares to the East. The all too familiar set up.


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