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Pattern December to Remember

Rain Cold said:
I believe we're going to torch all the way through December. Then, after that, it's going to be nothing but hot as far as the eye can see until January is over. Then for February, it's going to record-setting hot, finally cooling off by late March. Going to be the number one hottest winter on record, and it isn't even going to be close, until it's beaten next year.
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I actually 100% agree with you. I personally think I March will be the best chance we something for most of the people on this board.
 
Rain Cold said:
I believe we're going to torch all the way through December. Then, after that, it's going to be nothing but hot as far as the eye can see until January is over. Then for February, it's going to record-setting hot, finally cooling off by late March. Going to be the number one hottest winter on record, and it isn't even going to be close, until it's beaten next year.
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I literally can't find anything working in our favor for the next 10 days at least. But I'm not kicking the can to January mainly because my leg is worn out from all the can kicking of the last few years. While unlikely as it is I'm going to pull for an epic reversal the second half of December. That can and has happened! Also JB told me I'd average below normal for December. That means the flip will be epic to erase the burn of the 1st half!
 
Loganelliott99 said:
If the Charlotte area doesn’t have a top 3 warmest December y’all can ban me for the rest of winter.
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Though I think it’s gonna definitely be a warm month overall, there’s a couple reasons why I think top 3 might be pushing. The current top 3 were wall to wall warm months with each probably having 25 days or more with highs above 65, while it looks like we may see a number of instances this year where CAD keeps temperatures down. Also, if you remember 2015 wasn’t just warm… it was quite humid at times as well thanks to that raging STJ you see with a strong El Niño. This time we’re looking at a much drier airmass overall which will allow even mild days to cool off quick after dark… we may see a good bit 35 in the morning to 65 in afternoon type days. 2015 had a lot of nights with lows in the 50s and even 60s… I remember walking outside on Christmas Eve night that year and it felt like south Florida.
 
smast16 said:
But yesterday everyone was riding the trough train when showed cooler...

You know what they say" New Day; New Pattern."
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Agreed. Much too early to say record breaking warm December. Today is dec 1. Haha. nothing is for certain after day 5 right now. KING Euro
 
Rain Cold said:
I believe we're going to torch all the way through December. Then, after that, it's going to be nothing but hot as far as the eye can see until January is over. Then for February, it's going to record-setting hot, finally cooling off by late March. Going to be the number one hottest winter on record, and it isn't even going to be close, until it's beaten next year.
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Knowing our luck, there won't be any ridge to speak of come spring time, lol. Of course, by then climatology won't be in favor for snow storms, not unless we cash out on a late season snow storm by a freak of nature. As we know it, there can be quite significant snows in March. It will be interesting what plays out with the stubborn ridging. These past several winters has not been in our favor, but one of these winters (maybe not this winter either) our luck will return eventually.
 
Chazwin said:
Though I think it’s gonna definitely be a warm month overall, there’s a couple reasons why I think top 3 might be pushing. The current top 3 were wall to wall warm months with each probably having 25 days or more with highs above 65, while it looks like we may see a number of instances this year where CAD keeps temperatures down. Also, if you remember 2015 wasn’t just warm… it was quite humid at times as well thanks to that raging STJ you see with a strong El Niño. This time we’re looking at a much drier airmass overall which will allow even mild days to cool off quick after dark… we may see a good bit 35 in the morning to 65 in afternoon type days. 2015 had a lot of nights with lows in the 50s and even 60s… I remember walking outside on Christmas Eve night that year and it felt like south Florida.
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I agree 100% the overnight lows will not allow that with the dry air. This dry weather may be a blessing deeper into winter. I remember last year several modeled threats had dews in the upper 20s leading up to the event. That had failure written all over it. We rely heavily on evaporational cooling around these parts. I've already had dews lower than all of last winter and it wasn't even close.
 
Somosdel said:
Agreed. Much too early to say record breaking warm December. Today is dec 1. Haha. nothing is for certain after day 5 right now. KING Euro
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The model fluctuations run to run within even the same suite are pretty epic right now. Have to favor warm but the euro shows how we can at least temper that back closer to avg
 
Somosdel said:
Agreed. Much too early to say record breaking warm December. Today is dec 1. Haha. nothing is for certain after day 5 right now. KING Euro
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Oh no, you have me confused. We gonna bake. I was making fun of the hype train when the Euro threw a single trough out there. Saw 1 dang cooler run / run delta and lost theirs minds.
 
smast16 said:
Oh no, you have me confused. We gonna bake. I was making fun of the hype train when the Euro threw a single trough out there. Saw 1 dang cooler run / run delta and lost theirs minds.
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Same can be said about the GFS and it's warmer solution. That model flips back and forth every run now. Half the time it doesn't even agree with its own ensembles.
 
Eps alternates cool/warm through D8 then a short torch/SER followed by a quick brief cool off then it goes mega torch to end out the run. Might be a little more support for a -NAO/EPO as you get past D10 and really out to 2 weeks but meh noise and it still wasn't pretty
 
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