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Pattern December to Remember

SnowNiner said:
Everything way out can certainly change, but even though stuff may be changing up top, to me it looks the same for the SE as far as the eye can see. The Pacific ridge is still too far west and needs to scoot further east and poleward hopefully. Get the PNA at least neutral and stop the dump out west.

Good to see more red showing up on the top of the world, but hoping it gets in a better configuration for the SE the following week. Maybe this is the start. ??‍♂️

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Although this may not look appetizing it’s certainly what you want to see to head towards that pattern change that blocking poleward is sending that cold air south and eventually that air has to go somewhere and I’m assuming we get some CAD to show up nicely for the Christmas week time period .. still too early for any details though but you have to live this large scale evolution over top of us
 
metwannabe said:
I know it's the ICON but it looked fairly wedgy with no real torch (especially the CAD regions) for next 7 days.
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Although the H5 pattern looks abysmal for the next 10-15 days, the saving grace is that with all this ridging on the east coast we are susceptible to CAD. Which I think has a high likelihood of happening. I think we will see our fair share cold and cloudy lower 50 degree days. In fact I think that we will see more of that type of weather than we will of a bunch of upper 60's and lower 70 degree days. This week is a prime example of that. 10-15 days ago this time period was looking very warm and it quickly turned into a CAD dominated week.
 
iGRXY said:
Although the H5 pattern looks abysmal for the next 10-15 days, the saving grace is that with all this ridging on the east coast we are susceptible to CAD. Which I think has a high likelihood of happening. I think we will see our fair share cold and cloudy lower 50 degree days. In fact I think that we will see more of that type of weather than we will of a bunch of upper 60's and lower 70 degree days. This week is a prime example of that. 10-15 days ago this time period was looking very warm and it quickly turned into a CAD dominated week.
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But when are we gonna get our winter weather chances?!
 
Stephenb888 said:
But when are we gonna get our winter weather chances?!
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Early January is looking like the best time period. December snows are great but it is still relatively early for us to get winter weather at least around these parts in a relatively good pattern, but we are in an awful one right now. MJO is going to favorable phases and you're starting to see long range guidance take our current SER and progress it into a -NAO with heights building across Alaska. That maybe enough to get a good winter storm at least in the upper southeast. If you can build a +PNA with the -NAO, then I would almost guarantee we would see some type of winter weather event.
 
Definitely some severe weather with that front as well. Those in Central and eastern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas will probably go through 3 different seasons in about a span of 12 hours. further west we hold onto the CAD until we warm into the low 60's that morning before being in the 40's by lunch.
 
You can see the GFS is looking like it's wanting to try again but we really need to get that upper low out of NW Canada and Alaska to really start pumping heights up the west coast. But that -NAO is something fierce.

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I remember the cold push in December 2017 (also Niña) (pretty sure this was the year). Record cold for major US cities on New Year’s Eve. I even got flurries on New Years night here. Big SER was showing up on modeling and the cold push through the middle of the country eventually wiped it out and we were well below normal for several weeks.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I remember the cold push in December 2017 (also Niña) (pretty sure this was the year). Record cold for major US cities on New Year’s Eve. I even got flurries on New Years night here. Big SER was showing up on modeling and the cold push through the middle of the country eventually wiped it out and we were well below normal for several weeks.
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Yeah I remember that winter... Everybody kept saying it was going to get warm and That kept getting pushed off.
 
iGRXY said:
You can see the GFS is looking like it's wanting to try again but we really need to get that upper low out of NW Canada and Alaska to really start pumping heights up the west coast. But that -NAO is something fierce.

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I don't beleive there would be a strong +PNA signature, going with more of a continuous slight -PNA/netrual or even a weak +PNA at times. The blocking over the North Pacific would be stationary, but meandering, fluctuating the PNA.
 
This is what we end with. Out west looks bad again but we are starting to build another -NAO and another lobe of cold air is pushing SE. One thing that is really starting to appear is a ton of CAD field days showing up in between the cold and is really moderating the SER at least east of the mountains.
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