Hmmm....
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
? ?
Pretty impressive ULL on the Euro, I guess severe would be an issue, maybe some hail? I'm not too convinced on any backside snow like it's showing but who knows, dynamic systems do some strange things.
Some much needed rain though, maybe.....
Man that ULL is taking it's time on the Euro
Yeah we wedge hard for the ULL but maybe something with the actual front
Talk about a cold pocket
StormWatch
Member
That frontal system may very well become closed off and become an ULL because - there's likely going to be a ridge east/ northeast of the system, and a ridge building behind the system causing it to become closed off. I'm not really surprised what the 12z Euro shows of that system. The 12z GFS came close to closing off the low. Still lots of time to go.
Well that was interesting Euro run, ULL that took 4 days to journey across the SE and still lingering lol
tennessee storm
Member
12z euro screams a rather higher severe wx threat for late Friday into Saturday morning lower Ohio valley down to lower miss valley that run alone has winds backed. So a decent tornado threat could be unfolding till things go linear
ATLwxfan
Member
Talk about a cold pocket
That look will never verify. Talk about “making its own cold air”.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
It seems reasonable that when the pattern does change late month that initially we get a western dump before it translates east
Eps mean stepping toward the cutoff idea
Is it too much to believe the Euro is showing at least wintry mixing potential with the next weekend ULL for parts of LA and MS?
accu35
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Not at all, we've got a snowstorm here in deep south Alabama on Dec 7th about 3 years ago. So anything is possible
Actually my highest snow total was when a ULL went through December 11, 2008. I picked up 5.5 inches from that event IMBY in southern LA.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Highly unlikely but I would believe that much more than areas east of the apps getting snow. Areas west of the apps typically get snow first
Confirmed that 11-15 EPS along with GEFS and GEPS are significantly colder to our NW vs 0Z runs indicative of trying to breakout of the zonal flow and tap sone of the W Canadian cold:
I believe that system brought snow to New Orleans while most of the Carolinas were well up into the 70s
I think your top 3 warmest dec is fading fast
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I really wish you didn’t remember that haha
It’s why i can't stand any modeling over 7 days. Worthless.
Eps snow totals through D8
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Dewpoint Dan
Member
You can have that crap. I just want it cold enough to snow ?
-EPOs are high reward but high risk, we’re gonna need NA blocking to come in clutch, -EPOs are prone to the SER 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
We’re gonna pop a big -NAO!
Cary_Snow95
Member
I agree I think we will but not before we get a big western dump and ser dominated pattern thru the end of the month imo
It’ll be interesting to see what happens sometimes -EPOs can be destructive to -NAOs and vice versa, but when they both happen at the same time great things happen
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, just about everything I see points to a potentially strong -NAO developing after Christmas and the possibility of it being coupled to a -EPO
This pattern right here is just a classic precursor to a big time -NAO in the week or two to follow.
Ward Cleaver
Member
I won’t get 10% of that.
This sure makes a drive up to gatlinburg very tempting
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, just about everything I see points to a potentially strong -NAO developing after Christmas and the possibility of it being coupled to a -EPO
This pattern right here is just a classic precursor to a big time -NAO in the week or two to follow.
Here we go
StormWatch
Member
That's not too bad - some of them are indicating the ULL, while some are indicating a line of snow along the boundary. This tells that the models aren't quite there yet with the best likelihood of the outcome. Right now, the question that stands out the most is whether or not the system would become cutoff or remain a frontal system? If it becomes cutoff, it's likely to become cutoff on the tail end of the Southern Appalachian Mountains as the mountains would cause a disturbance in the flow (orographic lift) - creating upward vorticites of air forcing counterclockwise winds. It would of course also depend what takes places with the ridges at 500mb.
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, just about everything I see points to a potentially strong -NAO developing after Christmas and the possibility of it being coupled to a -EPO
This pattern right here is just a classic precursor to a big time -NAO in the week or two to follow.
Ok, I think we'll all agree to give you the cold and snow the last 10 days of December, as long as you promise that it moves east to us the first 10 days of January. And not just with the moderating -NAO, we have to have that pacific ridge shift east with it for a +PNA. Deal? ?