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Pattern December to Remember

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Nam just jumps the precip over me ??
 
Mr. Golf said:
Sorry Larry. For cold weather diar straits. Just trying to be optimistic
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I love optimism but only as long as it isn’t overdone to the point of resulting in too much disappointment if what you desire doesn’t occur. It should be grounded in reality. I mean I’d be somewhat disappointed as a cold lover if the cold doesn’t get here by early January, sure. But it wouldn’t be that big a deal. That’s the thing about a constant extreme hyper like Bastardi. If one places too much faith in his extreme predictions, it increases the chance of having a harder time with the cold prediction not verifying.
 
GaWx said:
I love optimism but only as long as it isn’t overdone to the point of resulting in too much disappointment if what you desire doesn’t occur. It should be grounded in reality. I mean I’d be somewhat disappointed as a cold lover if the cold doesn’t get here by early January, sure. But it wouldn’t be that big a deal. That’s the thing about a constant extreme hyper like Bastardi. If one places too much faith in his extreme predictions, it increases the chance of having a harder time with the cold prediction not verifying.
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JB must need those subscriptions lol. So many free sites for weather now. Cautiously optimistic is what I really mean
 
SD said:
Good grief at some of these numbers out of NW Canada
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I watch those Alaskan shows where they show different folks off the grid living in central,northern Alaska above and around the artic circle. Not the Brown Family.
I see that Map and wonder how they keep their sanity in Dec,Jan. Hardly no sunlight, brutal Cold. They never film them during that time. I envy them the rest of year out pioneering it , working outside all day,hunting ,fishing in order to survive
 
GaWx said:
I’m going to sound weenie here but the 0Z GFS has been coming in significantly colder vs prior runs through practically the entire run through hour 270!
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Check out the North Atlantic. It appears to me that the 0Z is so much colder due to new blocking out there that wasn’t in prior runs.

To clarify, most of the run isn’t actually cold/BN, but it isn’t as warm as most recent runs on a good number of days. Baby steps?
 
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metwannabe said:
GFS, you good bro?

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Looking at the 500mb, it shows a cold lobe in Canada, causing confluence. However, a ridge comes into place behind the front and a warm layer could be introduced. The p-type could actually turn out to be rain to sleet or a winter mix, depending on how the temp. profiles play out. I think the p-type is a fluke on this particular run. We'll see what the GEFS tells - still lots of time.
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Is the 0Z GFS going to top all of that and try to start bringing the mother load of the W Canada brutal air at least down into the N Plains/Rockies? Prior runs were doing nothing of the sort this early.
 
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Interesting late in 0Z EPS has the brutal W Canada cold start dropping into the N Rockies/Plains with what appears to be a negative EPO with ridging into Alaska. This ain’t zonal anymore like on pretty recent runs. This is the first step in getting this strong Arctic to to drop into the US and this run has that starting as early as 12/18 by a few members and by 12/20 by the bulk of the remainder, with many members having a 1040-50+ surface high pushing it down:


H5: big step in the right direction!
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2M temperature anomalies still showing coldest on the globe in a massive area over W Canada and now entering the N Rockies to N Plains:

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SD said:
We will see if this is just another eps head fake on the epoView attachment 96997
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Yeah I’ll believe it under 200 hours. Ensembles do seem to be indicating a change around the Aleutian’s around 12-22. Still think a turn to normal to slightly BN could happen around the first of the year. Seen it many times, models usually rush changes
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Yeah I’ll believe it under 200 hours. Ensembles do seem to be indicating a change around the Aleutian’s around 12-22. Still think a turn to normal to slightly BN could happen around the first of the year. Seen it many times, models usually rush changes
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Yeah this is the eps mean at D15. ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0044800 (2).png
We would likely be looking at another strong SER response and warmth the week of Christmas unless we get something that's getting washed in the mean moving across the us/can border where we can kind of box in the warmth. Looking at the eps plumes there are a handful of members that do something similar to that.
 
SD said:
Yeah this is the eps mean at D15. View attachment 96998
We would likely be looking at another strong SER response and warmth the week of Christmas unless we get something that's getting washed in the mean moving across the us/can border where we can kind of box in the warmth. Looking at the eps plumes there are a handful of members that do something similar to that.
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Yeah that’s the problem with a Aleutian ridge to -EPO progression, stuff is already Gonna want to go out west as things amplify
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah that’s the problem with a Aleutian ridge to -EPO progression, stuff is already Gonna want to go out west as things amplify
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Yeah especially with no Natl blocking we sold have to build the pattern across the conus into something better so even if the eps was right in the pacific it would take some time unfortunately even if it ever got to something good
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Yeah I’ll believe it under 200 hours. Ensembles do seem to be indicating a change around the Aleutian’s around 12-22. Still think a turn to normal to slightly BN could happen around the first of the year. Seen it many times, models usually rush changes
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Negative EPO events at this range typically look like this in the models, a suppressed ridge anomaly south of Alaska. The protracted to extended pacific jet state with a pre existing strong Aleutian ridge invites itself to -EPO. For the mid-latter half of the 2010s, most of those big -EPOs were born in this way in a Nina-ish base state w/ convection reaching about 140-150E longitude in the west pacific, which moves the Aleutian ridge off to the NE towards Alaska.

500mb height anomalies of big -EPO winters.

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OLR anomalies of -EPO winters. -OLR (blue) = enhanced convection.
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The OLRa forecasts going forward look a lot like the composite pattern with stronger than average E hem convection in the means, and the core anomaly creeping up on 140-150E longitude later in the month. Will take a week or so for the mid latitude circulation pattern to adjust once the convection gets there, but beyond just the model forecasts and it being “x” number of days or hours out, it’s certainly a reasonable to believe we could see -EPO in 2-3 weeks time

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