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Pattern December to Remember

Myfrotho704_ said:
Daily CFS says pattern change early jan View attachment 96954View attachment 96955
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This at least appears to be colder (based on these H5 maps) than not only the 6Z and 0Z (neither of which got it that cold down into the SE) but also the impressively cold 18Z CFS that I posted last night. These maps suggest the Midwest and NE US would likely be frigid and the SE would again be at the bottom of the cold where Miller A winter storm(s) could potentially form along the Arctic boundary. The coldest CFS runs have been suggesting like this one that there’d be two separate Arctic plunges.
Do you have 2 meter temps for those two periods?
 
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This WAA regime screams elevated thunderstorms with a large inversion/steep mid level lapse rates on top, all points to production of a few hundred joules of MUcape > convection, esp given how WAA typically overpeforms, the same can be said for elevated instability in this sort of setup 2DB6F154-3C38-4379-833B-362CE9457474.png
C0C7F127-D1FB-4B9B-BA55-0BBF80603859.pngF3ECDCA4-7A7A-4E44-80DF-8A3BEAE39680.pngF1BFB790-1854-4803-AD01-CE79A822A632.png
 
GaWx said:
This at least appears to be colder (based on these H5 maps) than not only the 6Z and 0Z (neither of which got it that cold down into the SE) but also the impressively cold 18Z CFS that I posted last night. These maps suggest the Midwest and NE US would likely be frigid and the SE would again be at the bottom of the cold where Miller A winter storm(s) could potentially form along the Arctic boundary. The coldest CFS runs have been suggesting like this one that there’d be two separate Arctic plunges.
Do you have 2 meter temps for those two periods?
Click to expand...
4C6A9C73-5E23-4415-9D3E-C35511406EBA.pngAF765B09-E1F4-443A-9D14-BD8CA5F13DDF.png
 
don’t understand why some in the NE are saying a flatter trend makes no sense, the pattern does not support amplification at all, typically with +NAOs, the flow is sped up and fast, hence faster flow, and sheared waves are favored over juicy amped systems
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 96963View attachment 96964
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Thanks, fro! So, at least compared to my 2m 18Z CFS maps, the first map (for 12/30-1/5) is MUCH colder in the entire E US with what looks like possible record cold for @Tarheel1 to Chicago (that literally shows a whopping 20-25 BN for a full week though I sometimes wonder about WeatherBell maps in their details). This map suggests a potential Gulf Miller A winter storm.

The 2nd map is about as it was on the 18Z in the SE and Midwest but is much colder/frigid over the NE, perhaps suggesting the chance for a CAD based winter storm if that frigid air is tapped via a wedge.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This time we will have dry air involved and a more CAD process these tend to trend colder but we will see of course
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We said that for much of last winter with CADs and they opposite actually happened, and the NAM was often to aggressive with how cold the CADs were, now them Hanging around is a different story
 
SD said:
Good grief at some of these numbers out of NW Canada
View attachment 96976
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This is the area that I’ve been watching the last few months ever since they were having cooler than average temperatures during the summer. This is much colder than what they were seeing last year at this time. Honestly it’s not gonna take a really tall western ridge to tap that. We just got to get the MJO into a more favorable position
 
Two things I'm concerned about. 1. Can standing wave break down to allow true propagation of mjo, especially later. 2. Will the epo and ao remain positive? If so, we in diar straits lol?
 
Mr. Golf said:
Two things I'm concerned about. 1. Can standing wave break down to allow true propagation of mjo, especially later. 2. Will the epo and ao remain positive? If so, we in diar straits lol?
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Nah, not dire straits. We’re only talking about cold vs mild, not life and death thank the Big Guy! Life would go on just fine if the cold is delayed further.

18Z GEFS: has several 1050ish highs coming down at this time but the spread is huge between members:

51CB7B5E-9B48-4A1F-9D61-6903A8EC25AC.png
 
GaWx said:
Nah, not dire straits. We’re only talking about cold vs mild, not life and death thank the Big Guy! Life would go on just fine if the cold is delayed further.

18Z GEFS: has several 1050ish highs coming down at this time but the spread is huge between members:

View attachment 96982
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Sorry Larry. For cold weather diar straits. Just trying to be optimistic
 
GaWx said:
Nah, not dire straits. We’re only talking about cold vs mild, not life and death thank the Big Guy! Life would go on just fine if the cold is delayed further.

18Z GEFS: has several 1050ish highs coming down at this time but the spread is huge between members:

View attachment 96982
Click to expand...
We’re only talking about cold vs mild, not life and death thank the Big Guy! Life would go on just fine if the cold is delayed further.

?
 
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