Lol H5 pattern does look similar on the longer range stuff which is crazy but doubt we’re that warm again, id say that H5 pattern reminds me more of 2020
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
This is an essential building block we must continue patience ???
With the 30 year average being 44.6, this top 3 warm call (53+) means the call is for 8+ warmer than the new warmer 30 year normal, a very tough challenge. Let’s see what happens.
What's funny to me is 15-16 was a nino and everyone loves a nino for some reason
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I just hope the bottom doesn't fall out in January and leave us with bitterly cold air.
For cold preferrers, El Niño’s have averaged colder in DJF than neutral and La Niña in the bulk of the SE US based on longterm averages. Of course, the coldest are weak to moderate on average.
This La Niña though may end up only weak. That would give a higher chance at a BN DJF vs the chance with a stronger La Niña.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Patterns like this are extremely difficult to flip. Especially considering La Niña. IMO if the southeast torches in December then it will be a golf filled winter with little to no long lasting cold. Now I do think March could be a wild card month.
I was speaking more to the generalized statements that we start seeing in about June that equate to nino good, nina bad. Obviously there is data to support the claims, we do live in a region where a 14 day cold period and a big snow or 2 when in the midst of an overall warm winter leaves the memory of it being epic regardless of the enso state
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'll have to take a closer look at things and pull out actual numbers when I get a chance, but in a La Nina winter, it's generally not a good sign for snow lovers to see a warm/SE ridge/-PNA dominated December because it tends to only get less favorable from here, February is usually (but not always (1988-89 for ex)) a lost cause in winters like this. If this was an El Nino or neutral ENSO winter, I probably wouldn't be concerned (yet).
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I am in the blue shading. This is objectively a good thing.
Did we really get blanked in 75-76?
If we assume December ends up mild, there are two notable moderate La Niña winter exceptions with very mild December’s that had a cold month later when looking back to just 1950:
1971-2 had a cold Feb, the coldest of DJF by far.
1984-5 had the well know historically cold Jan!
I wouldn’t mind a drought going into next year with all these rebuilding bills that were passed we need dry warm weather for projects. Minus the fires. Lot of projects still behind from the past 3 wet years.
Give me a -PNA/SER that’ll toss some ring of fire rain events towards us, if it’s not to strong, -PNA is always better then a +PNA for rain
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Many in central NC walked away w/ at least 1-2 winter storms that season, the greatest seasonal snowfall totals east of the mountains were near the Triangle that year.
A snow event in late November 1975, ice storm on Christmas day, and a pair of nickel/dime snow events on January 17-18 & Feb 2-3 1976 were observed in 1975-76.
1984-5 is one weak to moderate La Niña very mild Dec exception to hope 2021-2 somewhat resembles for cold lovers:
Here are the MJO charts for then:
Very mild Dec 1984 (blue) was centered in mild MC:
Very cold Jan (red) was centered on cold phases:
Here are the MJO charts for then:
Very mild Dec 1984 (blue) was centered in mild MC:
Very cold Jan (red) was centered on cold phases:
I didn't know it was so slow on wxbell vs tidbits. It's not a terrible look for some onset stuff but would probably go to poop post 180 with all the energy loading in the west.