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Pattern December to Remember

Been gone for like a week, and I didn't read all the way back. But I'm guessing the December to remember pattern has already been derailed. That super cold shot that was modeled for around the 4th and 5th vanished into mist I see.
 
smast16 said:
Been gone for like a week, and I didn't read all the way back. But I'm guessing the December to remember pattern has already been derailed. That super cold shot that was modeled for around the 4th and 5th vanished into mist I see.
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We don't do cold December's around here anymore! This constant cycle of cold November's, warm winters then cold springs has gotten very old!
 
We gone be hurting in 2022. Hate Droughts!

qpf_acc.conus.png

qpf_acc.conus.png
 
tennessee storm said:
Yeah not good. Be honest
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Yeah zonal is the worst outcome in my opinion. The last thing I would want is to flush all the cold and snow out of North America with Pacific air in December. Give me an amplified pattern even if we bake under a SER. Climo tells us it doesn't snow much in December anyway, especially the beginning of it. Keep Canada and the NW frigid and I'll just hope we can get it down this way in January during peak climo.
 
The major ensembles look mainly mild through a good portion of their runs though there are still a few BN days thrown in. Things will change as we get further into the winter. Those wanting it to be cold dominated again should be patient as big changes in winter are the norm.

Currently, the GEFS forecasts call for a -PNA, +NAO, and +AO to commence later this week and hold on through day 14 (12/14). So, mild should be fully expected then. Those who want that should be happy. I just hope the dewpoints stay below 60 most days here. At the same time, the GEFS has an MJO that is still headed to phase 7 next week. The bias correction keeps it low amp 7 with it likely headed for low amp 8. We’ll then need to see if this will help change the PNA back to + and hope that the warm MC forcing doesn’t dominate and make it act like the MJO is in phases 4 and 5.
 
GaWx said:
The major ensembles look mainly mild through a good portion of their runs though there are still a few BN days thrown in. Things will change as we get further into the winter. Those wanting it to be cold dominated again should be patient as big changes in winter are the norm.

Currently, the GEFS forecasts call for a -PNA, +NAO, and +AO to commence later this week and hold on through day 14 (12/14). So, mild should be fully expected then. Those who want that should be happy. I just hope the dewpoints stay below 60 most days here. At the same time, the GEFS has an MJO that is still headed to phase 7 next week. The bias correction keeps it low amp 7 with it likely headed for low amp 8. We’ll then need to see if this will help change the PNA back to + and hope that the warm MC forcing doesn’t dominate and make it act like the MJO is in phases 4 and 5.
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Destructive interference between the MJO and ENSO will make the favorable, cooler MJO phases harder to come by and less amplified for the time being, the one benefit of being in a neutral ENSO state or El Nino is that Pacific-W Hem MJO is more frequent + stronger. In the long run, we'll need to dislodge the MJO from the Maritime Continent-West Pacific to avoid getting consistently torched in mid-late winter, not entirely sure if that's going to happen this year.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
What are the top 3 for your area? I'm sure the trash pile of 2015 is in there.
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So, I just had looked it up and the Charlotte (nearby major city) third warmest Dec is at 53.0. Top 3 warmest are:

55.4 2015
54.7 1889
53.0 1956

Fourth warmest is way down at 50.6 (1971). It will be fun to follow this to see if he ends up right. He should get a good head start with the early month mild domination. But that’s still really going out on the limb!
 
GaWx said:
So, I just had looked it up and the Charlotte (nearby major city) third warmest Dec is at 53.0. Top 3 warmest are:

55.4 2015
54.7 1889
53.0 1956

Fourth warmest is way down at 50.6 (1971). It will be fun to follow this to see if he ends up right. That’s really going out on the limb!
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No chance this gets near 2015. This is nothing like that month, unless I start seeing really warm lows in the forecast this is the top 10 at best. Although 4th warmest sounds very breakable.
 
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