Well if this is the case then why even bother being on here. If it never changes lolThis. I use to bite on these websites saying cold winter back in the late 2010s and I’ve learned my lesson, when you go warm, your most likely gonna be right
Well if this is the case then why even bother being on here. If it never changes lolThis. I use to bite on these websites saying cold winter back in the late 2010s and I’ve learned my lesson, when you go warm, your most likely gonna be right
It’ll change, just have to have patienceWell if this is the case then why even bother being on here. If it never changes lol
Because we like punishment lol. But like @Myfrotho704_ said it will eventually change but when every single teleconnection is against you right now anything showing more than a day or two cold shot are most likely wrong. This pattern is trash, about as bad as it gets and it's so stable that even a certain met from Charlotte punted December the other day. I never thought I would have seen that from him.Well if this is the case then why even bother being on here. If it never changes lol
I'm saying winter is over. It's wall to wall warmth this winter. Merry torchmus, golf weather, pool weather, mjo phase 6 all winter RNA dominated winter cold Alaska with a severe la nina positive NAO haven't you heard?Well with the MJO being in phase 6( even stronger in that phase than models have predictied),I doubt it's going to get cold in the SE (outside of maybe 1-2 day cool shots) atleast around Christmas day or so.Maybe even later. No one is saying winter is over. People are simply that it's going a lot to flip this pattern around. Accroding to the GEFS in the longer range,the 850 maybe above 0 all way to basically the US/Canadian border. As people have already,the first signs ofa true patterns change, look cold being build up in the Northern plains/Rocky Mountain states,then expand to midwest/Great Lake states/the NE, than hopefully at some point the SE.
I'm nearing the point of just going ahead and punting December from now on, even before-hand, and not even considering December as a winter month anymoreBecause we like punishment lol. But like @Myfrotho704_ said it will eventually change but when every single teleconnection is against you right now anything showing more than a day or two cold shot are most likely wrong. This pattern is trash, about as bad as it gets and it's so stable that even a certain met from Charlotte punted December the other day. I never thought I would have seen that from him.
Still waiting on a inch of snow after 3 yearsI'm saying winter is over. It's wall to wall warmth this winter. Merry torchmus, golf weather, pool weather, mjo phase 6 all winter RNA dominated winter cold Alaska with a severe la nina positive NAO haven't you heard?
not really nothing to like lol, 3 prior gefs runs haven’t shown anything, now if there’s future run to run consistently then it’s something to likeFwiw, starting to like this time period View attachment 96863
Not too late for me in va, hoping that I can win and not the New England weeniesIf only this trend would have started a few days ago, we might have had a winter storm on our hands next week.
View attachment 96857
To add further to this, I have added the GEFS snowfall chance for this time frame. This looks very good at this range!I don't know about you, but for the shorter term, my attention has increased on the 12th time period as several GEFS members indicate rain changing to snow along a frontal system that shows on the 12th. It's still too early for specifics, but since it's looking like it would be a frontal system (as of now) severe weather has a good chance along and ahead of the frontal system in the southwest flow, and as the deep cold air begins converging, wet adiabatic lapse rates would be extreme causing temperatures to decrease dramatically and development of strong convection - so, if this plays out, intense snowfall could occur.
The northern stream would be tapping into this frontal system, as a cold lobe (in Canada) would progress east as the frontal system pushes off to the northeast. So, not only the process of the wet adiabatic lapse rate decreasing the temperatures, but also the cold air supply in Canada would enhance the cold air mass along and behind the front. As I was typing this, a member did post the GEFS snowfall mean, and it does indeed show snow! I think we just might have our first winter event to track, we'll see how this plays out this week.
11-12 reduxI'm saying winter is over. It's wall to wall warmth this winter. Merry torchmus, golf weather, pool weather, mjo phase 6 all winter RNA dominated winter cold Alaska with a severe la nina positive NAO haven't you heard?
I would not mind that at all. Maybe another March like 2012 too.11-12 redux