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Pattern December to Remember

Stephenb888 said:
Well if this is the case then why even bother being on here. If it never changes lol
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Because we like punishment lol. But like @Myfrotho704_ said it will eventually change but when every single teleconnection is against you right now anything showing more than a day or two cold shot are most likely wrong. This pattern is trash, about as bad as it gets and it's so stable that even a certain met from Charlotte punted December the other day. I never thought I would have seen that from him.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Well with the MJO being in phase 6( even stronger in that phase than models have predictied),I doubt it's going to get cold in the SE (outside of maybe 1-2 day cool shots) atleast around Christmas day or so.Maybe even later. No one is saying winter is over. People are simply that it's going a lot to flip this pattern around. Accroding to the GEFS in the longer range,the 850 maybe above 0 all way to basically the US/Canadian border. As people have already,the first signs ofa true patterns change, look cold being build up in the Northern plains/Rocky Mountain states,then expand to midwest/Great Lake states/the NE, than hopefully at some point the SE.
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I'm saying winter is over. It's wall to wall warmth this winter. Merry torchmus, golf ⛳ weather, pool weather, mjo phase 6 all winter RNA dominated winter cold Alaska with a severe la nina positive NAO haven't you heard?
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Because we like punishment lol. But like @Myfrotho704_ said it will eventually change but when every single teleconnection is against you right now anything showing more than a day or two cold shot are most likely wrong. This pattern is trash, about as bad as it gets and it's so stable that even a certain met from Charlotte punted December the other day. I never thought I would have seen that from him.
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I'm nearing the point of just going ahead and punting December from now on, even before-hand, and not even considering December as a winter month anymore
 
I don't know about you, but for the shorter term, my attention has increased on the 12th time period as several GEFS members indicate rain changing to snow along a frontal system that shows on the 12th. It's still too early for specifics, but since it's looking like it would be a frontal system (as of now) severe weather has a good chance along and ahead of the frontal system in the southwest flow, and as the deep cold air begins converging, wet adiabatic lapse rates would be extreme causing temperatures to decrease dramatically and development of strong convection - so, if this plays out, intense snowfall could occur.

The northern stream would be tapping into this frontal system, as a cold lobe (in Canada) would progress east as the frontal system pushes off to the northeast. So, not only the process of the wet adiabatic lapse rate decreasing the temperatures, but also the cold air supply in Canada would enhance the cold air mass along and behind the front. As I was typing this, a member did post the GEFS snowfall mean, and it does indeed show snow! I think we just might have our first winter event to track, we'll see how this plays out this week.
e971dc5d57c496a18bf1cdc3778fd0ef.jpg
 
CD4583BB-679F-468E-A485-133C1650B378.png
I think it is clear that none of the models know what type of system this is going to be
 
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StormWatch said:
I don't know about you, but for the shorter term, my attention has increased on the 12th time period as several GEFS members indicate rain changing to snow along a frontal system that shows on the 12th. It's still too early for specifics, but since it's looking like it would be a frontal system (as of now) severe weather has a good chance along and ahead of the frontal system in the southwest flow, and as the deep cold air begins converging, wet adiabatic lapse rates would be extreme causing temperatures to decrease dramatically and development of strong convection - so, if this plays out, intense snowfall could occur.

The northern stream would be tapping into this frontal system, as a cold lobe (in Canada) would progress east as the frontal system pushes off to the northeast. So, not only the process of the wet adiabatic lapse rate decreasing the temperatures, but also the cold air supply in Canada would enhance the cold air mass along and behind the front. As I was typing this, a member did post the GEFS snowfall mean, and it does indeed show snow! I think we just might have our first winter event to track, we'll see how this plays out this week.
e971dc5d57c496a18bf1cdc3778fd0ef.jpg
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To add further to this, I have added the GEFS snowfall chance for this time frame. This looks very good at this range!
187aca516741a31747bbfce26e54357f.jpg
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm saying winter is over. It's wall to wall warmth this winter. Merry torchmus, golf ⛳ weather, pool weather, mjo phase 6 all winter RNA dominated winter cold Alaska with a severe la nina positive NAO haven't you heard?
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11-12 redux
 
I wish for one second I could believe the RGEM
 
GEFS really bringing several members with snow and ice to the Virginia border with this up coming event .. turning very miller B’ish
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
GEFS really bringing several members with snow and ice to the Virginia border with this up coming event .. turning very miller B’ish
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RGEM, NAM are already cold enough here for snow ?‍♂️. Very odd
 
JB Saturday Summary from here:

WeatherBELL Live Stream

www.weatherbell.com

Not surprisingly, he skipped over the near term to look further ahead: he’s “tremendously concerned” that there is a “tremendous amount of cold air that the models can’t handle” (specifically the CFS and Bleaklies) because of an upcoming stratospheric vortex split (SVS around Dec 8th)(not a SSW). He said that there are often brutal cold periods 30 days after an SVS when the MJO then gets into phases 8,1, and 2. He showed Dec of 1976 and Dec of 1995 SVS’s and the subsequent brutal cold the following Januaries. He also showed the SVS of Jan of 2021 and the historic cold of Feb of 2021 in the central US. The CFS in January had Feb forecasted as very mild.

So, based on the upcoming 12/8/21 SVS and the forecasted MJO, he thinks early January will be brutally cold in much of the US. Independently of him, I’ve already shown the similarities of Nov-Dec 1984 to Nov-Dec 2021 in terms of 2M temps, MJO, and ENSO including it being 2nd year La Niña along with the hope for a severe cold reversal in January similar to 1985 even though it is an extreme.

1995-6 had similar ENSO, too, (though not 2nd year) though 1976-7 was a weak El Niño. I’ll also add that 2017-8, which included a brutal first half of January, had very similar 2nd year La Niña to now. However, none of 1995-6, 1976-7, and 2017-8 had a similar Nov-Dec to 2021 at 2M.

The CFS (admittedly not a good model that changes a lot from run to run) has shown on a number of runs solid cold in early to mid January. Are these hints of brutal cold potential? Here are some tasty maps for your Sunday viewing pleasure from the very latest CFS:

First, the map showing the strong cold coming down first in the west and central US as the E warmth is barely hanging on for the last time for awhile:

CF8AE2C9-C64B-4DF8-BF05-63DBC400D8D7.png

Then it comes east just before New Year’s:

27E762B1-D0B4-4125-8132-9942DCF3DF48.png

There may be a juicy Miller A with this:

4BFC5125-C2C7-4A96-BB53-43BADDF3EE23.png

Then there’s 10 days averaging near normal in the SE while the next batch of very cold gets set to plunge:

5B69C767-37AD-464B-A973-B9FDCB4C9D4D.png

Finally, here’s the 2nd period of solid cold in the C and E US:

0B7A7197-5C8B-4D63-A47F-0672AB9A8DFA.png

Here’s H5 with a +PNA then:

7EF40423-06A0-46CE-87E3-F16E2ED76CA2.png

In summary, Dec may turn out to largely be a throwaway for cold lovers. There’s a good chance that the next 3 weeks will be mainly mild in the SE with a dreaded -PNA (less than that for further west cold lovers like @Brent, @BufordWX, and @Mr. Golf). But that has little bearing on what might hit us in very late Dec and in much of January! I’d strongly advise getting outside and enjoying being out in shorts through Christmas or so because that may not be possible for another lengthy period for a long time afterward. Enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get.
 
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Second NAMing of the season and it has support from every model except the GFS. The think I am watching is the last system that gave me a chance at this range trended weaker and south and gave the high elevations in NW NC a dusting or so. This one is also trending cooler and south so might be headed in the same direction. Even if it happens, it looks pretty light and possibly just white rain. EURO from pivital 18Z Wed.
1638707850355.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've never been a fan of enthusiastic thread names like this, it's usually a jinx.
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The real jinx was me switching from all season tires to A/T lol should have kept my 500 bucks. As you've alluded I believe it will be a few weeks before we get out of this torch pattern I'd like to see the mjo move to 8 in time for January
 
Here's just a little of Joe D'Aleo post from Saturday.

QBO easterly argues for cold periods. Key levels are 30-45mb.

Screen_Shot_2021_12_04_at_12_26_11_PM.png


Screen_Shot_2021_12_04_at_12_32_39_PM.png


We will see this 'boot' of cold this winter. Many analogs had the cold early, others later when the stratosphere warms.

Screen_Shot_2021_12_04_at_12_31_53_PM.png




Then we could see major snow events that make the list. The October bomb could be a model then. The fall storms are often 'tells'.


So don't fret and don't whine just get your cold forecast where I get mine! And I'll be back on Christmas Day!
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Here's just a little of Joe D'Aleo post from Saturday.

QBO easterly argues for cold periods. Key levels are 30-45mb.

Screen_Shot_2021_12_04_at_12_26_11_PM.png


Screen_Shot_2021_12_04_at_12_32_39_PM.png


We will see this 'boot' of cold this winter. Many analogs had the cold early, others later when the stratosphere warms.

Screen_Shot_2021_12_04_at_12_31_53_PM.png




Then we could see major snow events that make the list. The October bomb could be a model then. The fall storms are often 'tells'.


So don't fret and don't whine just get your cold forecast where I get mine! And I'll be back on Christmas Day!
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I think we’ve been waiting on the “boot” theory, about as long as we’ve been waiting on the bathtub ? to slosh?! Maybe throw our boots into the bathtub, to make it slosh?????
 
Tarheel1 said:
I think we’ve been waiting on the “boot” theory, about as long as we’ve been waiting on the bathtub ? to slosh?! Maybe throw our boots into the bathtub, to make it slosh?????
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Whatever it takes to keep us looking for cold and winter storms, right? ;) ??
 
Rain Cold said:
Merry Torchmas ⛳ ?‍♂️ ⛱

In before the toastinas wake up.

View attachment 96882
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Golf, fishing, banana hammock sun bathing, tennis, beach weather, pre emergent applying, grass cutting, scuba diving, snorkeling,walking, running, picnic, shades of winter 11-12, weather! ?
 
Rain Cold said:
Merry Torchmas ⛳ ?‍♂️ ⛱

In before the toastinas wake up.

View attachment 96882
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It's JUST right after this time frame we turn it around... Remember! lol. But that is a ugly looking map, A lot of cold to the NW that should push, slosh, or jump to the SE in time.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Whatever it takes to keep us looking for cold and winter storms, right? ;) ??
Click to expand...
By the time we realize they are pulling the wool over our eyes, their pockets will be fat, and he will be telling everybody how cold 22-23 winter will be!??????
 
GaWx said:
JB Saturday Summary from here:

WeatherBELL Live Stream

www.weatherbell.com

Not surprisingly, he skipped over the near term to look further ahead: he’s “tremendously concerned” that there is a “tremendous amount of cold air that the models can’t handle” (specifically the CFS and Bleaklies) because of an upcoming stratospheric vortex split (SVS around Dec 8th)(not a SSW). He said that there are often brutal cold periods 30 days after an SVS when the MJO then gets into phases 8,1, and 2. He showed Dec of 1976 and Dec of 1995 SVS’s and the subsequent brutal cold the following Januaries. He also showed the SVS of Jan of 2021 and the historic cold of Feb of 2021 in the central US. The CFS in January had Feb forecasted as very mild.

So, based on the upcoming 12/8/21 SVS and the forecasted MJO, he thinks early January will be brutally cold in much of the US. Independently of him, I’ve already shown the similarities of Nov-Dec 1984 to Nov-Dec 2021 in terms of 2M temps, MJO, and ENSO including it being 2nd year La Niña along with the hope for a severe cold reversal in January similar to 1985 even though it is an extreme.

1995-6 had similar ENSO, too, (though not 2nd year) though 1976-7 was a weak El Niño. I’ll also add that 2017-8, which included a brutal first half of January, had very similar 2nd year La Niña to now. However, none of 1995-6, 1976-7, and 2017-8 had a similar Nov-Dec to 2021 at 2M.

The CFS (admittedly not a good model that changes a lot from run to run) has shown on a number of runs solid cold in early to mid January. Are these hints of brutal cold potential? Here are some tasty maps for your Sunday viewing pleasure from the very latest CFS:

First, the map showing the strong cold coming down first in the west and central US as the E warmth is barely hanging on for the last time for awhile:

View attachment 96873

Then it comes east just before New Year’s:

View attachment 96874

There may be a juicy Miller A with this:

View attachment 96875

Then there’s 10 days averaging near normal in the SE while the next batch of very cold gets set to plunge:

View attachment 96876

Finally, here’s the 2nd period of solid cold in the C and E US:

View attachment 96877

Here’s H5 with a +PNA then:

View attachment 96878

In summary, Dec may turn out to largely be a throwaway for cold lovers. There’s a good chance that the next 3 weeks will be mainly mild in the SE with a dreaded -PNA (less than that for further west cold lovers like @Brent, @BufordWX, and @Mr. Golf). But that has little bearing on what might hit us in very late Dec and in much of January! I’d strongly advise getting outside and enjoying being out in shorts through Christmas or so because that may not be possible for another lengthy period for a long time afterward. Enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get.
Click to expand...


Joe Ba has been in denial of the forthcoming warm pattern for quite some time (as usual). Writing was on the wall when the models started to realize early this past week a big WP MJO event was coming. Most models are usually too fast/progressive and damped (too weak) w/ the MJO, esp anytime an event isn't already ongoing (predictability is lower), contributing to the warming trend we've seen the last several days on the whole. Ironically, although La Ninas tend to be more favorable to early season cold, if we had the same MJO event during a neutral or NINO ENSO, we'd flip out of this crap pattern much sooner.

3 days ago: " These are quite interesting. If it is true that the MJO is not going back into Phase 6, then the cold shot in Days 6-10, while followed by modest warming, may be similar to mid-December 1995. The warming then did occur but not as much as the current 10-day forecast implications of December 11-20"


6 days ago: "The implication here is that after a move into Phase 6 we will head into Phases 7 & 8. The move into Phase 6 will be short enough so that the full-scale warm response may not take place. However, the Euro has a different look. The new ECMWF raw forecast is now more into Phase 7: The new bias-correction is locked in Phase 6 through December 12: This says big-time warmth is going to be coming, and I don't know how it would be able to stay out. However, that doesn't mean it will happen"
 
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