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Pattern December Discussion

Supershow link said:
Even the latest Para is starting to fade away next weekend:
19aec7f8f8644300e899abf586fbdac4.jpg



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Yes it does, but the 6z gfs this morning kinda looked interesting for that period now lol
 
I don't understand why they can't program the models to show warm rain in the LR, instead of all these fantasy Cold shots and winter threats.  They'd be far more accurate.  Just hard code them to show past day 5 the farthest extent of the cold press 600 miles to the northwest and have every system cut toward the Lakes.
 
accu35 link said:
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg1465#msg1465 date=1481547587]
Even the latest Para is starting to fade away next weekend:
19aec7f8f8644300e899abf586fbdac4.jpg



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Yes it does, but the 6z gfs this morning kinda looked interesting for that period now lol
[/quote]
You mean this :
23e00440e9d1a8736beb79de43833f32.jpg



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Great shot of cold coming but good lord the torch coming after toward ?? is gonna be big it appears.
 
I'm talking post like D10 but models have been bouncing all over. Looks like JMA prob right toward Christmas.
 
Euro is showing ice now for here Monday into Tuesday. I guess the good thing is we are seeing threats show up on the models inside 10 days. It looks like the weekend threat is gone, but now we have an ice storm threat for Monday into Tuesday of next week. A lot better seeing these threats show up versus nothing at all. Hopefully, things will work out and some of them will come to fruition.
 
Supershow link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg1471#msg1471 date=1481551121]
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg1465#msg1465 date=1481547587]
Even the latest Para is starting to fade away next weekend:
19aec7f8f8644300e899abf586fbdac4.jpg



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Click to expand...
Yes it does, but the 6z gfs this morning kinda looked interesting for that period now lol
[/quote]
You mean this : yes that, I been still watching that time period, if gfs start improving for that time frame, then maybe the gfs para is on to something
23e00440e9d1a8736beb79de43833f32.jpg



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[/quote]
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Euro is showing ice now for here Monday into Tuesday. I guess the good thing is we are seeing threats show up on the models inside 10 days. It looks like the weekend threat is gone, but now we have an ice storm threat for Monday into Tuesday of next week. A lot better seeing these threats show up versus nothing at all. Hopefully, things will work out and some of them will come to fruition.
Click to expand...

The euro is nuts...30 Friday 60s Saturday 70 Sunday then falling through the 30s on Monday with freezing rain developing
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg1478#msg1478 date=1481553121]
Euro is showing ice now for here Monday into Tuesday. I guess the good thing is we are seeing threats show up on the models inside 10 days. It looks like the weekend threat is gone, but now we have an ice storm threat for Monday into Tuesday of next week. A lot better seeing these threats show up versus nothing at all. Hopefully, things will work out and some of them will come to fruition.
Click to expand...

The euro is nuts...30 Friday 60s Saturday 70 Sunday then falling through the 30s on Monday with freezing rain developing
[/quote]

It's happened before.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg1478#msg1478 date=1481553121]
Euro is showing ice now for here Monday into Tuesday. I guess the good thing is we are seeing threats show up on the models inside 10 days. It looks like the weekend threat is gone, but now we have an ice storm threat for Monday into Tuesday of next week. A lot better seeing these threats show up versus nothing at all. Hopefully, things will work out and some of them will come to fruition.
Click to expand...

The euro is nuts...30 Friday 60s Saturday 70 Sunday then falling through the 30s on Monday with freezing rain developing
[/quote]

Hard to believe isn't it???  Don't know if I'm drinking that Kool-Aid
 
Is the arctic air going to miss us early next week?  I notice that places like Minneapolis are forecast to be colder with the arctic airmass coming in late next weekend than the one this week. Meanwhile, we may have highs in the 30s this week but our forecast highs for early next week look pretty seasonal.
 
Flurry link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1484#msg1484 date=1481555189]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg1478#msg1478 date=1481553121]
Euro is showing ice now for here Monday into Tuesday. I guess the good thing is we are seeing threats show up on the models inside 10 days. It looks like the weekend threat is gone, but now we have an ice storm threat for Monday into Tuesday of next week. A lot better seeing these threats show up versus nothing at all. Hopefully, things will work out and some of them will come to fruition.
Click to expand...

The euro is nuts...30 Friday 60s Saturday 70 Sunday then falling through the 30s on Monday with freezing rain developing
[/quote]

Hard to believe isn't it???  Don't know if I'm drinking that Kool-Aid
[/quote]

Yea I am not ready to get that crazy but the 6z GFS did lean toward the Euro with some ice on the front end of the system next week so it has a little support. Just saw the 0z Canadian....better buy a generator lol
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
Is the arctic air going to miss us early next week?  I notice that places like Minneapolis are forecast to be colder with the arctic airmass coming in late next weekend than the one this week. Meanwhile, we may have highs in the 30s this week but our forecast highs for early next week look pretty seasonal.
Click to expand...
It looks like the brunt of next week's cold slides more East than South only giving us the fringe ... for now anyway
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=2.msg1460#msg1460 date=1481543571]
If you like warm, the 06z GFS has your name written all over it.


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it's not really warm at all . of course post day ten has a day at 66 but it's post day ten, evem that would be short lived as a cold front is on the door step . in fact , except for a couple days the temps in Atlanta are fairly close to normal for this time of year .  if you average the next ten days atlanta would average a couple degrees below normal
a9f60700682435a2d3c55bfe312e7aa1.jpg


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[/quote]
Yeah I guess I was looking at Xmas and beyond which you never know what will happen. It does seem that the Xmas torch always verifies.


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SD link said:
[quote author=Flurry link=topic=2.msg1486#msg1486 date=1481555444]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1484#msg1484 date=1481555189]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg1478#msg1478 date=1481553121]
Euro is showing ice now for here Monday into Tuesday. I guess the good thing is we are seeing threats show up on the models inside 10 days. It looks like the weekend threat is gone, but now we have an ice storm threat for Monday into Tuesday of next week. A lot better seeing these threats show up versus nothing at all. Hopefully, things will work out and some of them will come to fruition.
Click to expand...

The euro is nuts...30 Friday 60s Saturday 70 Sunday then falling through the 30s on Monday with freezing rain developing
[/quote]

Hard to believe isn't it???  Don't know if I'm drinking that Kool-Aid
[/quote]

Yea I am not ready to get that crazy but the 6z GFS did lean toward the Euro with some ice on the front end of the system next week so it has a little support. Just saw the 0z Canadian....better buy a generator lol
[/quote]

We've had some good winter storms here before on the heels of warm weather.
 
ATLWxFan link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1463#msg1463 date=1481545704]
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=2.msg1460#msg1460 date=1481543571]
If you like warm, the 06z GFS has your name written all over it.


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Click to expand...
it's not really warm at all . of course post day ten has a day at 66 but it's post day ten, evem that would be short lived as a cold front is on the door step . in fact , except for a couple days the temps in Atlanta are fairly close to normal for this time of year .  if you average the next ten days atlanta would average a couple degrees below normal
a9f60700682435a2d3c55bfe312e7aa1.jpg


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[/quote]
Yeah I guess I was looking at Xmas and beyond which you never know what will happen. It does seem that the Xmas torch always verifies.


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[/quote]
ATL avg high is probably 57 this time of year, so that doesn't look torchy!
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Flurry link=topic=2.msg1486#msg1486 date=1481555444]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1484#msg1484 date=1481555189]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg1478#msg1478 date=1481553121]
Euro is showing ice now for here Monday into Tuesday. I guess the good thing is we are seeing threats show up on the models inside 10 days. It looks like the weekend threat is gone, but now we have an ice storm threat for Monday into Tuesday of next week. A lot better seeing these threats show up versus nothing at all. Hopefully, things will work out and some of them will come to fruition.
Click to expand...

The euro is nuts...30 Friday 60s Saturday 70 Sunday then falling through the 30s on Monday with freezing rain developing
[/quote]

Hard to believe isn't it???  Don't know if I'm drinking that Kool-Aid
[/quote]

Yea I am not ready to get that crazy but the 6z GFS did lean toward the Euro with some ice on the front end of the system next week so it has a little support. Just saw the 0z Canadian....better buy a generator lol
[/quote]
The CMC had a generator event for this Saturday, sadly it was wrong! Cold rain is boring! Rain cold , is awesome! :)
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=2.msg1491#msg1491 date=1481556404]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1463#msg1463 date=1481545704]
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=2.msg1460#msg1460 date=1481543571]
If you like warm, the 06z GFS has your name written all over it.


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Click to expand...
it's not really warm at all . of course post day ten has a day at 66 but it's post day ten, evem that would be short lived as a cold front is on the door step . in fact , except for a couple days the temps in Atlanta are fairly close to normal for this time of year .  if you average the next ten days atlanta would average a couple degrees below normal
a9f60700682435a2d3c55bfe312e7aa1.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Yeah I guess I was looking at Xmas and beyond which you never know what will happen. It does seem that the Xmas torch always verifies.


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[/quote]
ATL avg high is probably 57 this time of year, so that doesn't look torchy!
[/quote]
I think it's closer to 54

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Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=2.msg1491#msg1491 date=1481556404]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1463#msg1463 date=1481545704]
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=2.msg1460#msg1460 date=1481543571]
If you like warm, the 06z GFS has your name written all over it.


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Click to expand...
it's not really warm at all . of course post day ten has a day at 66 but it's post day ten, evem that would be short lived as a cold front is on the door step . in fact , except for a couple days the temps in Atlanta are fairly close to normal for this time of year .  if you average the next ten days atlanta would average a couple degrees below normal
a9f60700682435a2d3c55bfe312e7aa1.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Yeah I guess I was looking at Xmas and beyond which you never know what will happen. It does seem that the Xmas torch always verifies.


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[/quote]
ATL avg high is probably 57 this time of year, so that doesn't look torchy!
[/quote] avg high in atl for today is 55
 
Re: December Discussion

12z gfs has light ice for cad regions Saturday . high is moving offshore , timing will be the issue

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Re: December Discussion

gfs is beating back the ridge in the medium range thanks to a bigger cold push
b6bea1d5edace3bce6e9c40b61cda9d5.jpg


it's hell bent on breaking off a piece of the trough and leaving it behind
54b32611eba5ac68bd483036a839b169.jpg


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just some slight differences in the 12z gfs vs 06z for next week. 12z gfs H5 pattern is much closer to the 06z gfs para

12z gfs
0309b1eb35c29c798ca2b93f25ee28be.jpg


06z para
4e4ee17762f4ae3e36911f3401ee5a57.jpg


06z gfs
3e13933c57de0211841e8f9d1d7d151a.jpg


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Re: December Discussion

this is the 12z gfs christmas eve look
d6fd50941db4e8fecc90c49a8ffc6f06.jpg
which is the exact same look the gfs had for Mid week next week which now kooks like this
225a6db0720c19525b65b749a5f3a345.jpg


very changeable pattern next week with multiple systems, certainly no torch

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Crazy how consistent (rather it happens or not) the models favor ice over snow for our winter storms that fail to happen. Don't like this pattern at all think it will take a major pattern change to fix this. Anything before Christmas just doesn't scream snow to me at all!
 
WilkesboroDude link said:
Crazy how consistent (rather it happens or not) the models favor ice over snow for our winter storms that fail to happen. Don't like this pattern at all think it will take a major pattern change to fix this. Anything before Christmas just doesn't scream snow to me at all!
Click to expand...
good thing we realistically don't expect snow and ice in December. This actually isn't a completely horribpe pattern . it's serviceable for your area and certainly not a torch pattern

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So the Euro, Canadian, and GFS are all showing something to watch for next Monday/Tuesday now?
 
Supershow link said:
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg1516#msg1516 date=1481563942]
Canadian is Nasty Ice Storm for S Ark, N LA, W TN, and N MS next week!
Click to expand...
9d5bcf0afdbc645dc0fcb06f59e8894d.jpg




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[/quote]
it's an interesting system as there will be cold air around. would just depend on timing of the cold moving  out and the moisture moving in

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the cmc also is very close to crushing the Carolinas mid week . just need it to go negative tilt and boom
f8349781e19baf6e763d555348041b84.jpg
88eaac2e5477f6e6dfb4c32a5d5f1cbf.jpg


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Storm5 link said:
the cmc also is very close to crushing the Carolinas mid week . just need it to go negative tilt and boom
f8349781e19baf6e763d555348041b84.jpg
88eaac2e5477f6e6dfb4c32a5d5f1cbf.jpg


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Click to expand...

I just keep thinking about Dec 2010. I remember there were a couple of threats that showed up on the models that didn't pan out before we got the big storm on Christmas. This feels really similar to what happened then.
 
Lets not forget that December 2010 was also a moderate El Nino.  This year is quite different.
 
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