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Pattern December Discussion

Re: December Discussion

NorthGaWinter link said:
Not one member With snow...
Click to expand...
for your BY....


they don't count ice.this isn't a snow pattern , if anything it would a wintry mix . I've said for weeks and still believe this pattern favors northern LA , Arkansas , Tenn and CAD regions on NC. if I were in those areas I would be very excited about the possibilities next week. this isn't a pattern for your area or mine 

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Ryan will be updating the model times to EST he said.
 
Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg1575#msg1575 date=1481575136]
Not one member With snow...
Click to expand...
for your BY....


they don't count ice.this isn't a snow pattern , if anything it would a wintry mix . I've said for weeks and still believe this pattern favors northern LA , Arkansas , Tenn and CAD regions on NC. if I were in those areas I would be very excited about the possibilities next week. this isn't a pattern for your area or mine 

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[/quote]

I wouldn't entirely discount the CAD areas of Upstate SC - at any rate, the Memphis metro looks great
 
drfranklin link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1576#msg1576 date=1481575306]
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg1575#msg1575 date=1481575136]
Not one member With snow...
Click to expand...
for your BY....


they don't count ice.this isn't a snow pattern , if anything it would a wintry mix . I've said for weeks and still believe this pattern favors northern LA , Arkansas , Tenn and CAD regions on NC. if I were in those areas I would be very excited about the possibilities next week. this isn't a pattern for your area or mine 

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[/quote]

I wouldn't entirely discount the CAD areas of Upstate SC - at any rate, the Memphis metro looks great
[/quote]
Yeah any cad area really , I agree with you. problem is for anyone to see anything next week it's pretty much all timing and I'm not talking about possible precip behind front Sunday or Monday . I'm talking about the possible wave Tuesday into wednesday. how fast does the cold move out , when does the precip arrive. thw general questions for southern winter weather lol

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Certainly think areas along &/or north & west of the Triad-Statesville-Gastonia and towards the blue ridge escarpment could see a light glazing of ice at the onset of the storm this Saturday before the in-situ CAD erodes...
 
since we all want a cold January , let's ignore the fact the PV is going to be getting its act together and consolidating towards the pole........

SD ruined my day

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Storm5 link said:
since we all want a cold January , let's ignore the fact the PV is going to be getting its act together and consolidating towards the pole........

SD ruined my day

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Sorry man I was just looking at it on the gfs and shaking my head

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Storm5 link said:
since we all want a cold January , let's ignore the fact the PV is going to be getting its act together and consolidating towards the pole........

SD ruined my day

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Game over...LOL!


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1582#msg1582 date=1481577130]
since we all want a cold January , let's ignore the fact the PV is going to be getting its act together and consolidating towards the pole........

SD ruined my day

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Click to expand...

Game over...LOL!


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[/quote]
Yeah, models are great this year! Be afraid
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg1584#msg1584 date=1481577638]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1582#msg1582 date=1481577130]
since we all want a cold January , let's ignore the fact the PV is going to be getting its act together and consolidating towards the pole........

SD ruined my day

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Click to expand...

Game over...LOL!


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[/quote]
Yeah, models are great this year! Be afraid
[/quote]

LOL...Not afraid...It is what it is...


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Storm5 link said:
since we all want a cold January , let's ignore the fact the PV is going to be getting its act together and consolidating towards the pole........

SD ruined my day

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"the PV being disturbed by warming in the stratosphere . With enough warming , the PV will split in half,  and hopefully send a lobe over to our side of the world"  Is what I read on other post.
 
Re: December Discussion

accu35 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1582#msg1582 date=1481577130]
since we all want a cold January , let's ignore the fact the PV is going to be getting its act together and consolidating towards the pole........

SD ruined my day

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Click to expand...
"the PV being disturbed by warming in the stratosphere . With enough warming , the PV will split in half,  and hopefully send a lobe over to our side of the world"  Is what I read on other post.
[/quote]
lol that's what we hope for every winter. when we are depending on a split you know we are screwed . the ole SSW event. Is Judah Cohen even still publishing blogs ?

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I'm gonna stick to the "models are not handling the cold correctly" cliche to make me feel better about the chances  ;D
 
Storm5 link said:
since we all want a cold January , let's ignore the fact the PV is going to be getting its act together and consolidating towards the pole........

SD ruined my day

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Yea 12z guidance is not a good look heading into late December. +AO/NAO/EPO. Troughs dumping out into Central US and Ridge off to the East.

12Z EPS at day 10
4286cc7b21e6fbd215dbd352b1cd4ee0.jpg


12Z GEFS day 10
d7a05b688f08791951478accee2fb11d.jpg


Day 12
ba609511b05b389c6796b636335406e2.jpg


Christmas
8e3aa18600039cfded3fdd52571e8470.jpg


Day 15 going towards New Years
d253a111f7de5e91ab25340afefcea6e.jpg


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SoutheastRidge link said:
A little over 8 days from now the days will start getting longer again. Spring is on it's way !
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we could have went little longer with hearing that lol. Besides it wont be very noticeable until late Feb early March
 
The first shot of ZR is nothing crazy.  Ice map I just saw shows 0.01 for the whole SE area who are affected.  Not that it can't be the start of a trend/get heavier.  Euro had quite the icing a few days ago in this timeframe along with GGEM.
 
SnowFlowXXL link said:
GFS coming in a little more icy for Friday night I believe
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Nice on set of ip/zr into Atlanta metro Early Saturday morning. It's coming in little wetter from past runs.

18z
17453455700f279eb4015db65da79572.jpg


12z
4d005d3179348f326c65c0e1f2dc8785.jpg



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Starburst link said:
The first shot of ZR is nothing crazy.  Ice map I just saw shows 0.01 for the whole SE area who are affected.  Not that it can't be the start of a trend/get heavier.  Euro had quite the icing a few days ago in this timeframe along with GGEM.
Click to expand...
The map I saw has .10-.15 from about Athens Ga, to Spartanburg SC!?
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1596#msg1596 date=1481581648]
The first shot of ZR is nothing crazy.  Ice map I just saw shows 0.01 for the whole SE area who are affected.  Not that it can't be the start of a trend/get heavier.  Euro had quite the icing a few days ago in this timeframe along with GGEM.
Click to expand...
The map I saw has .10-.15 from about Athens Ga, to Spartanburg SC!?
[/quote] that's WWA criteria, but with the drought it might not take much to down some trees.
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1596#msg1596 date=1481581648]
The first shot of ZR is nothing crazy.  Ice map I just saw shows 0.01 for the whole SE area who are affected.  Not that it can't be the start of a trend/get heavier.  Euro had quite the icing a few days ago in this timeframe along with GGEM.
Click to expand...
The map I saw has .10-.15 from about Athens Ga, to Spartanburg SC!?
[/quote]

I was using the AMWX maps.  Odd.  But that's substantially more.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1595#msg1595 date=1481581493]
ca2c16ec48e1b8d04581d4f1bb1d9fa9.jpg


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might be time for you to take a timeout

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[/quote]

091125321ca6497de1f70aa42e30e2b5.jpg



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RollTide18 link said:
According to the 18z GFS, we'll have 40s for Christmas

gfs_T2m_seus_47.png
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Yeah, not much of a torch
 
Does anyone know if the pivotal weather maps are accurate for ice accumulation?  if they are correct, it's a quite bigger icing situation.  of course, that kind of wedge wouldn't erode too quickly, especially with consistent light-moderate precipitation.
 
Anybody got temps/dp's for early morning Saturday, let's say for GA and Carolinas??
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg1609#msg1609 date=1481584170]
Anybody got temps/dp's for early morning Saturday, let's say for GA and Carolinas??
Click to expand...
4835bcfc2bbeefd128719d0f9680c5d9.jpg


ba5416e81e710a937920f5d8cef3ea7b.jpg


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[/quote]
Wow! Thanks! That 1-3 degree dewpoint in the Piedmont is crazy and low to mid 20s on the temps! People better hope the precip isn't steady or early! The 10-15 degree dp's and mid upper 20s in NE GA and Upstate, isn't as impressive, but they should see precip first! Could be interesting!?
 
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