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Brick Tamland
Guest
SD link said:
Details? About the GFS, not the pants tightening.
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Pattern December Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
Details? About the GFS, not the pants tightening.
8-10 day gem, is like A 60 hour NAM! LolStorm5 link said:
Storm5
Member
8-10 day gem, is like A 60 hour NAM! LolTarheel1 link said:
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this^^^^^^^^
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Brick Tamland link said:
Details? About the GFS, not the pants tightening.
[/quote]
1043 over New England and moisture building from the deep south. Looks like what would be a miller b ice storm in the making for CAD areas
Meh still there but oriented differently. Gets beaten down a little more
Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
Holy hell the 12z gefs is very supportive of a wintry threat the 17th-19th. mainly for Arkansas tenn, and NC . Some members get the cad going for NE georgia
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Holy hell the 12z gefs is very supportive of a wintry threat the 17th-19th. mainly for Arkansas tenn, and NC . Some members get the cad going for NE georgia
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Sounds like some fun for next weekend is definitely still on the table.
whatalife
Moderator
When in doubt go with the model you like best...LOL!
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Re: December Discussion
Thats a pretty classic wedge signature
Storm5 link said:
Thats a pretty classic wedge signature
That's why I like the Brazillian and UKMET!whatalife link said:
whatalife
Moderator
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Re: December Discussion
Thats a pretty classic wedge signature
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All the snowcover building up north , should help with any wedges and we know the models almost always underestimate the strength anyway
SD link said:
Thats a pretty classic wedge signature
[/quote]
All the snowcover building up north , should help with any wedges and we know the models almost always underestimate the strength anyway
SimeonNC
Member
I'm assuming the wintry threat for next weekend is mostly freezing rain. Given the blazing 850s
Storm5
Member
incredible meanwhatalife link said:
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whatalife
Moderator
incredible meanStorm5 link said:[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg889#msg889 date=1481305485]
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[/quote]
And that's an icy mean at that!
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NorthGaWinter link said:
Speaking for ATL, itself, major ice storms are kind of rare in early to mid Dec. though there was a major one in north ATL in mid Dec. of 2005 and a significant one in early Dec. of 1971. Also, there was a huge sleet storm in mid Dec. of 1917. But though they are far from unheard of, they are pretty rare. They pick up in frequency during the last week of Dec. For example, Christmas has had major ice on three occasions!
For NC/SC/GA major CAD areas in general: here are the dates of major DEC ZR in parts or all of this area just for 1950-2005, alone:
12/3 (ATL got mix of mainly ZR and IP), 12/4-5 (this was 2002...ATL got mix of ZR and R and was no big deal), 12/6, 12/8, 12/14-15 (N ATL got major ZR), 12/20, 12/23 (ATL got mainly light IP/SN instead), 12/25 (ATL got major ZR), 12/25, 12/31 (ATL got mainly SN/IP, not ZR), 12/31
GaWx link said:
Speaking for ATL, itself, major ice storms are kind of rare in early to mid Dec. though there was a major one in north ATL in mid Dec. of 2005 and a significant one in early Dec. of 1971. Also, there was a huge sleet storm in mid Dec. of 1917. But though they are far from unheard of, they are pretty rare. They pick up in frequency during the last week of Dec. For example, Christmas has had major ice on three occasions!
For NC/SC/GA major CAD areas in general: here are the dates of major DEC ZR in parts or all of this area just for 1950-2005, alone:
12/3 (ATL got mix of mainly ZR and IP), 12/4-5 (ATL got mix of ZR and R and was no big deal), 12/6, 12/8, 12/14-15 (N ATL got major ZR), 12/20, 12/23 (ATL got mainly light IP/SN instead), 12/25 (ATL got major ZR), 12/25, 12/31 (ATL got mainly SN/IP, not ZR), 12/31
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Hey Larry. Have you found there is more ZR in a -EPO vs. -NAO or does that matter? The last ice storm we had at least in my area in 2014 was during a -EPO. It seems that a -NAO helps deliver more snow due to the setup.
GaStorm link said:
Speaking for ATL, itself, major ice storms are kind of rare in early to mid Dec. though there was a major one in north ATL in mid Dec. of 2005 and a significant one in early Dec. of 1971. Also, there was a huge sleet storm in mid Dec. of 1917. But though they are far from unheard of, they are pretty rare. They pick up in frequency during the last week of Dec. For example, Christmas has had major ice on three occasions!
For NC/SC/GA major CAD areas in general: here are the dates of major DEC ZR in parts or all of this area just for 1950-2005, alone:
12/3 (ATL got mix of mainly ZR and IP), 12/4-5 (ATL got mix of ZR and R and was no big deal), 12/6, 12/8, 12/14-15 (N ATL got major ZR), 12/20, 12/23 (ATL got mainly light IP/SN instead), 12/25 (ATL got major ZR), 12/25, 12/31 (ATL got mainly SN/IP, not ZR), 12/31
[/quote]
Hey Larry. Have you found there is more ZR in a -EPO vs. -NAO or does that matter? The last ice storm we had at least in my area in 2014 was during a -EPO. It seems that a -NAO helps deliver more snow due to the setup.
[/quote]
For major ATL ZR's: I've never analyzed with regard to EPO. I have found no correlation to monthly -NAO. A monthly -NAO seems to help a little more for SN though even that correlation isn't strong. There MAY be a slight correlation of major ZR to -PDO (not +PDO). But the strongest correlation for major ZR to an index that I've found so far is to a neutral negative ENSO, which we currently have.
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NorthGaWinter
Guest
Thanks Larry! You are indeed sir, the man