Pattern December Discussion

[NorthGaWinter]

Not for you or me brick

 

[Webberweather53]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1700#msg1700 date=1481638770]
I wouldn't be surprised to see the massive/poleward Aleutian ridge return by the 1st-2nd week of January once the tropical forcing shifts back into the Indian Ocean forcing the Pacific jet to retract again. We're in a QBO/ENSO base state (WQBO/-ENSO) that favors a high-latitude Aleutian/far North Pacific ridge, and tropical pacific forcing in this background will only act to suppress the ridge into the central Pacific, therefore causing a stronger than normal Pacific jet to enforce mild/Pacific air across North America. Even though the polar vortex is liable to recover somewhat in the near-term, the redevelopment of the Scanadinavian Ridge-Alaskan vortex configuration should cause WAFz (wave activity flux) to increase again in the medium-long range, thus at least giving us a chance to get another -AO surge later in January if we get can sustain that and get enough tropospheric forcing @ the right time to get a huge lobe of the polar vortex to sit over North America. As far as I'm concerned, if we don't see a nice PV lobe over North America in January &/or February, we're going to probably have issues wrt getting cold air into the east-central US. January is highly uncertain wrt its sensible impacts, but I'd lean above average here if anything. I'm not holding out much hope for February this year given the nearly unanimous signals for warmth in that month from the climate models, analogs, and the canonical QBO/ENSO progression, but we shall see.

I produced this graphic several weeks ago when I made my winter forecast, thus far I'm fairly pleased w/ how December has played out, the blend of these 3 sets of years seemed to be the most realistic route. As you can probably tell, there's a lot of uncertainty w/ January, but pretty remarkable consensus on a warm February here.

Pardon me if the picture is cut-off I did my best to resize

Eric, is that you?
[/quote]

Yep sure is. Took me a while to find this place...

 

[Storm5]

big Texas winter Strom on the 12z euro next Wednesday

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[dsaur]

I had really food hopes (internally) for the 15th-20th time.  Oh well.  As I get older, the more just plain annoyed I get with this whole weather model thing.

  Lol, ...now you are getting it.  Don't look at the models...what do they know?  When you get to be as old as I am, you've lost your frustration..it's all peace and tranquillity....and Larry's Zen acceptance of whatever weather brings...smooth sailing... happiness when you look out and see what's offered by the climate...until you screw up and look at the models again   I too used to rage in frustration...but now I let climo be my guide...if it ain't happened in forever, it probably won't happen now..and if it does..it'll surprise the crap out of everyone, models included, lol. Larry said 1917 for the Atlanta area...that's lots and lots of Dec. no's and I've lived thu a bunch of them..each one fuelling a smouldering rage in my youth, but now I just give  a knowing nod, lol.  When you've gotten no, over and over, you just get broken... a shell... and it doesn't hurt as bad, because you are always  battered.  That's the peace loving sleet, and snow, in the south brings!  Broken shells of shattered hopes and dreams, lol.  Until you get one...and then you have to suffer the  whole thing all over again..because hope springs eternal...it's cruel, and torturous, and it's the gods laughing at you for living in the deep south   Like CR's Xmas snow...now it finally happened in the Atl area, hope is renewed that it can happen again... that's how the snow gods get you..to twist the  knife...to take foolish little boys and girls and make their lives each Dec. a living hell..wishing and hoping for snow on Christmas..because it happened once....not realizing it might take another 100 years, lol.  Oh, the humanity!!

 

[Shawn]

[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1434#msg1434 date=1481518036]
I had really food hopes (internally) for the 15th-20th time.  Oh well.  As I get older, the more just plain annoyed I get with this whole weather model thing.

  Lol, ...now you are getting it.  Don't look at the models...what do they know?  When you get to be as old as I am, you've lost your frustration..it's all peace and tranquillity....and Larry's Zen acceptance of whatever weather brings...smooth sailing... happiness when you look out and see what's offered by the climate...until you screw up and look at the models again   I too used to rage in frustration...but now I let climo be my guide...if it ain't happened in forever, it probably won't happen now..and if it does..it'll surprise the crap out of everyone, models included, lol. Larry said 1917 for the Atlanta area...that's lots and lots of Dec. no's and I've lived thu a bunch of them..each one fuelling a smouldering rage in my youth, but now I just give  a knowing nod, lol.  When you've gotten no, over and over, you just get broken... a shell... and it doesn't hurt as bad, because you are always  battered.  That's the peace loving sleet, and snow, in the south brings!  Broken shells of shattered hopes and dreams, lol.  Until you get one...and then you have to suffer the  whole thing all over again..because hope springs eternal...it's cruel, and torturous, and it's the gods laughing at you for living in the deep south   Like CR's Xmas snow...now it finally happened in the Atl area, hope is renewed that it can happen again... that's how the snow gods get you..to twist the  knife...to take foolish little boys and girls and make their lives each Dec. a living hell..wishing and hoping for snow on Christmas..because it happened once....not realizing it might take another 100 years, lol.  Oh, the humanity!!
[/quote]

Tony, have you ever thought about writing books?  That's wonderful!

 

[Storm5]

Re: December Discussion

large changes on the euro for next week. much warmer mid week . really buries the western energy turning the flow SW

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[Webberweather53]

You definitely don't see a 1046 high in New England on both the GFS & Euro over fresh snow cover every day... Extremely impressive to say the least.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1434#msg1434 date=1481518036]
I had really food hopes (internally) for the 15th-20th time.  Oh well.  As I get older, the more just plain annoyed I get with this whole weather model thing.

  Lol, ...now you are getting it.  Don't look at the models...what do they know?  When you get to be as old as I am, you've lost your frustration..it's all peace and tranquillity....and Larry's Zen acceptance of whatever weather brings...smooth sailing... happiness when you look out and see what's offered by the climate...until you screw up and look at the models again   I too used to rage in frustration...but now I let climo be my guide...if it ain't happened in forever, it probably won't happen now..and if it does..it'll surprise the crap out of everyone, models included, lol. Larry said 1917 for the Atlanta area...that's lots and lots of Dec. no's and I've lived thu a bunch of them..each one fuelling a smouldering rage in my youth, but now I just give  a knowing nod, lol.  When you've gotten no, over and over, you just get broken... a shell... and it doesn't hurt as bad, because you are always  battered.  That's the peace loving sleet, and snow, in the south brings!  Broken shells of shattered hopes and dreams, lol.  Until you get one...and then you have to suffer the  whole thing all over again..because hope springs eternal...it's cruel, and torturous, and it's the gods laughing at you for living in the deep south   Like CR's Xmas snow...now it finally happened in the Atl area, hope is renewed that it can happen again... that's how the snow gods get you..to twist the  knife...to take foolish little boys and girls and make their lives each Dec. a living hell..wishing and hoping for snow on Christmas..because it happened once....not realizing it might take another 100 years, lol.  Oh, the humanity!!
[/quote]
I could not have said it better. I see the sleet man is in rare form today.

 

[Storm5]

lol 00z euro

12z euro

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[SD]

Euro is a decent hit of freezing rain for parts of central NC .25-.5 or so

 

[Brick Tamland]

Euro is a decent hit of freezing rain for parts of central NC .25-.5 or so

That's enough to cause some problems.

 

[Webberweather53]

Some areas got upwards of 0.7-0.8" liquid equivalent on that Euro run in central NC. I sure hope some of this is sleet...

 

[Storm5]

Re: December Discussion

Back to a blowtorch Christmas again, lol....

Yeah , no its not. Not sure if your trolling or what

12z gfs Sunday the 25th

12z euro Friday the 23rd

12z cmc the 23rd

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[dsaur]

[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=2.msg1766#msg1766 date=1481654698]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1434#msg1434 date=1481518036]
I had really food hopes (internally) for the 15th-20th time.  Oh well.  As I get older, the more just plain annoyed I get with this whole weather model thing.

Tony, have you ever thought about writing books?  That's wonderful!
[/quote]  Thanks, Shawn, but who'd want to buy a book about tortured, shattered little snow loving kids, lol.  I do think a study about the psychology of loving sleet and snow in the south would be illuminating, lol.  There must be something twisted and wrong about us, lol.  Or special, and blessed...not quite sure which...maybe just simple minded and trusting in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, lol.  T

 

[Rain Cold]

Texas is the new snow capital of the south.

 

[Tarheel1]

[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg1774#msg1774 date=1481655445]
Back to a blowtorch Christmas again, lol....

Yeah , no its not

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[/quote]
Forgive Max, his shirtlessness gets in the way sometimes!
Let's hope the models are wrong about the shortwave getting stuck in the SW!?

 

[Brick Tamland]

Some areas got upwards of 0.7-0.8" liquid equivalent on that Euro run in central NC. I sure hope some of this is sleet...

That doesn't look dry to me. If that's mostly frozen, could be a bigger deal.

 

[dsaur]

[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=2.msg1766#msg1766 date=1481654698]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1434#msg1434 date=1481518036]
I had really food hopes (internally) for the 15th-20th time.  Oh well.  As I get older, the more just plain annoyed I get with this whole weather model thing.

I could not have said it better. I see the sleet man is in rare form today.

  Thanks, Cad...just making sure my frustration wards are in place.  Reminding myself..I must not believe, I must not believe.  It may look like light glinting off sleet, but it's not real...don't fall for it again this year....it Isn't Real!!!!!

 

[Cary_Snow95]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1775#msg1775 date=1481655533]
Some areas got upwards of 0.7-0.8" liquid equivalent on that Euro run in central NC. I sure hope some of this is sleet...

That doesn't look dry to me. If that's mostly frozen, could be a bigger deal.
[/quote]

Looked like most of that arrives after temps warm though.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Guess it all depends on the timing and amount of precip we get.

 

[Webberweather53]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1775#msg1775 date=1481655533]
Some areas got upwards of 0.7-0.8" liquid equivalent on that Euro run in central NC. I sure hope some of this is sleet...

That doesn't look dry to me. If that's mostly frozen, could be a bigger deal.
[/quote]

Yeah exactly, this Euro run was actually a lot wetter in central NC...
Most areas get double-triple the amount of precip...

I don't expect the models to handle overrunning/isentropic lifting terribly well this far out either. They're usually underdone w/ the strength of the CAD, northern extent, intensity, & amount of CAD precip this far in advance but there's still plenty of time for it to change.

 

[NorthGaWinter]

Lol yeah that's how it usually is, brick

 

[Webberweather53]

[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg1781#msg1781 date=1481656039]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1775#msg1775 date=1481655533]
Some areas got upwards of 0.7-0.8" liquid equivalent on that Euro run in central NC. I sure hope some of this is sleet...

That doesn't look dry to me. If that's mostly frozen, could be a bigger deal.
[/quote]

Looked like most of that arrives after temps warm though.
[/quote]

The temperatures are actually below freezing for the duration of the event along a line from about Roanoke Rapids-Smithfield/Goldsboro-Lillington & into Rockingham-Wadesboro. The precip depicted in the triangle on this Euro run is mostly freezing rain.

 

[NCSNOW]

Gonna have to find a kicker wave out in the pacific or something to shove the lp out of 4 corners area and preferably due east and not toward the lakes.

 

[NCSNOW]

Kudos to webber for clearing that up.

 

[NorthGaWinter]

Re: December Discussion

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1777#msg1777 date=1481655749]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg1774#msg1774 date=1481655445]
Back to a blowtorch Christmas again, lol....

Yeah , no its not. Not sure if your trolling or what

12z gfs Sunday the 25th

12z euro Friday the 23rd

12z cmc the 23rd

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

The GFS does not even go below freezing from the 21st to the 29th, just saying what the 12Z said, forgive my ignorance.. You all know everything...............
[/quote]

Doesn't mean it's a torch though

 

[Storm5]

Re: December Discussion

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1777#msg1777 date=1481655749]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg1774#msg1774 date=1481655445]
Back to a blowtorch Christmas again, lol....

Yeah , no its not. Not sure if your trolling or what

12z gfs Sunday the 25th

12z euro Friday the 23rd

12z cmc the 23rd

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

The GFS does not even go below freezing from the 21st to the 29th, just saying what the 12Z said, forgive my ignorance.. You all know everything...............
[/quote]
you said blowtorch lol temps are at or BN . what does below freezing have to do with what you said

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[SD]

We need better model runs to talk about.

 

[Webberweather53]

Here are the 12z ECMWF 2mT @ the height of that storm early next week. Upper 20s-Near 30F from the Triangle area & pts NW

 

[Brick Tamland]

I like what webber is cooking. He sounds pretty convinced we'll be singing some ice, ice, baby next week.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

[quote author=Cary_Snow95 link=topic=2.msg1783#msg1783 date=1481656245]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg1781#msg1781 date=1481656039]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1775#msg1775 date=1481655533]
Some areas got upwards of 0.7-0.8" liquid equivalent on that Euro run in central NC. I sure hope some of this is sleet...

That doesn't look dry to me. If that's mostly frozen, could be a bigger deal.
[/quote]

Looked like most of that arrives after temps warm though.
[/quote]

The temperatures are actually below freezing for the duration of the event along a line from about Roanoke Rapids-Smithfield/Goldsboro-Lillington & into Rockingham-Wadesboro. The precip depicted in the triangle on this Euro run is mostly freezing rain.
[/quote]
Oh right on. Thanks for the clarification. Nice to have you back in here Eric!

 

[SD]

Looks like the Euro would be all freezing rain for central NC. 850s are quite warm and 925s stay above freezing so the cold air is very shallow.

 

[packfan98]

Looks like the Euro would be all freezing rain for central NC. 850s are quite warm and 925s stay above freezing so the cold air is very shallow.

Yeah that's always iffy with a very shallow layer in-situ wedge.  Too high of rates and it scours out fast.  As depicted, this looks like it would be just the right rates to lock in the cold.  Still expect many changes over the next few days.  It does not look warm though.  Maybe the models will keep having warmth in the long range, only to back away from pumping the SE ridge as time draws closer.

 

[Webberweather53]

Thanks guys... Think we should give this another day or so, but it's nice to at least have some model consensus this far in advance (although it's almost certain to be temporary lol).

 

[olhausen]

Re: December Discussion

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1777#msg1777 date=1481655749]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg1774#msg1774 date=1481655445]
Back to a blowtorch Christmas again, lol....

Yeah , no its not. Not sure if your trolling or what

12z gfs Sunday the 25th

12z euro Friday the 23rd

12z cmc the 23rd

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

The GFS does not even go below freezing from the 21st to the 29th, just saying what the 12Z said, forgive my ignorance.. You all know everything...............
[/quote]

Maybe for your backyard it doesn't. I see multiple days during this time period that go well below freezing for my area.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like the Euro would be all freezing rain for central NC. 850s are quite warm and 925s stay above freezing so the cold air is very shallow.

Could mean some snap, crackle, and pop.

 

[Webberweather53]

EPS mean has ~0.35-0.4" of liquid equivalent precipitation from this system next week in the Triangle, most of which is presumably ice.

 

[Shawn]

EPS mean has ~0.35-0.4" of liquid equivalent precipitation from this system next week in the Triangle, most of which is presumably ice.

You guys are in trouble if it gets wetter/colder.

 

[ATLwxfan]

God I need a weenie run. Come on 18z.


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[Webberweather53]

Ouch...