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Pattern December Discussion

Hi guys. I used to be a member at talkwx. I live in ne arkansas now. Could someone post the euro from 108-120 for me qpf? Just trying to tell how much if any is frozen. Thanks Maybe storm 5 or whoever has access to qpf from euro for my area
 
Some areas in northern NC & southern VA receive freezing rain for ~30-36 straight hours on this GFS run. No bueno

zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
Charlie， u got qpf access for my area? Just tryin to distinguish the frozen from liquid
 
Webberweather53 link said:
Some areas in northern NC & southern VA receive freezing rain for ~30-36 straight hours on this GFS run. No bueno

zr_acc.us_ma.png
Click to expand...
 
  Best hope that never happens :)  It's hard to enjoy the beauty of a major zr event thru all the suffering, lol.  Now, 36 hours of sleet would be a gift of great rarity.  Funny how painland and joyland share a border :)
 
One thing that does almost look like a lock is some big time drought relief over the next 7 to 10 days

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Webberweather53 link said:
Some areas in northern NC & southern VA receive freezing rain for ~30-36 straight hours on this GFS run. No bueno

zr_acc.us_ma.png
Click to expand...
Pretty major event for the triad and border counties almost all of this for those areas is Monday/Tuesday
969c0208436f8080986fb70e9c06c65b.jpg


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Re: December Discussion

SD link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1843#msg1843 date=1481668165]
Some areas in northern NC & southern VA receive freezing rain for ~30-36 straight hours on this GFS run. No bueno

zr_acc.us_ma.png
Click to expand...
Pretty major event for the triad and border counties almost all of this for those areas is Monday/Tuesday
969c0208436f8080986fb70e9c06c65b.jpg


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[/quote]
Looks like the Plateau here in East TN gets nailed as well

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1852#msg1852 date=1481669766]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1843#msg1843 date=1481668165]
Some areas in northern NC & southern VA receive freezing rain for ~30-36 straight hours on this GFS run. No bueno

zr_acc.us_ma.png
Click to expand...
Pretty major event for the triad and border counties almost all of this for those areas is Monday/Tuesday
969c0208436f8080986fb70e9c06c65b.jpg


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[/quote]
Looks like the Plateau here in East TH gets nailed as well

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[/quote]
Yep considering a thread since it looks like some areas will see freezing rain early next week

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SD link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=2.msg1854#msg1854 date=1481669924]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1852#msg1852 date=1481669766]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1843#msg1843 date=1481668165]
Some areas in northern NC & southern VA receive freezing rain for ~30-36 straight hours on this GFS run. No bueno

zr_acc.us_ma.png
Click to expand...
Pretty major event for the triad and border counties almost all of this for those areas is Monday/Tuesday
969c0208436f8080986fb70e9c06c65b.jpg


Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Looks like the Plateau here in East TH gets nailed as well

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Yep considering a thread since it looks like some areas will see freezing rain early next week

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[/quote]
It's always amazed me how the cold air gets entrenched on the west side of the Plateau and North Carolina side of the mountains, while the warm air floods the Great Valley

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Storm5 link said:
Haha 18z gfs kicked the energy this run
e2022e2bf79c82bb91d03d27704b10d7.jpg


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Click to expand...

Maybe we will get a bowling ball ULL so we can get some snow. Those are the funnest anyway
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1845#msg1845 date=1481668684]
Haha 18z gfs kicked the energy this run
e2022e2bf79c82bb91d03d27704b10d7.jpg


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Click to expand...

Maybe we will get a bowling ball ULL so we can get some snow. Those are the funnest anyway
[/quote]
need northern stream interaction.  there is no cold air around to support snow

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg1857#msg1857 date=1481670479]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1845#msg1845 date=1481668684]
Haha 18z gfs kicked the energy this run
e2022e2bf79c82bb91d03d27704b10d7.jpg


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Click to expand...

Maybe we will get a bowling ball ULL so we can get some snow. Those are the funnest anyway
[/quote]
need northern stream interaction.  there is no cold air around to support snow

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[/quote]

:( and thats not gonna happen
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1859#msg1859 date=1481671487]
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg1857#msg1857 date=1481670479]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1845#msg1845 date=1481668684]
Haha 18z gfs kicked the energy this run
e2022e2bf79c82bb91d03d27704b10d7.jpg


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Click to expand...

Maybe we will get a bowling ball ULL so we can get some snow. Those are the funnest anyway
[/quote]
need northern stream interaction.  there is no cold air around to support snow

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

:( and thats not gonna happen
[/quote]
nope. Like we have been talking about, this isn't a pattern for us. But some of our friends will see wintry weather next week so at least someone is getting something wintry

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SD link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=2.msg1854#msg1854 date=1481669924]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1852#msg1852 date=1481669766]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1843#msg1843 date=1481668165]
Some areas in northern NC & southern VA receive freezing rain for ~30-36 straight hours on this GFS run. No bueno

zr_acc.us_ma.png
Click to expand...
Pretty major event for the triad and border counties almost all of this for those areas is Monday/Tuesday
969c0208436f8080986fb70e9c06c65b.jpg


Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Looks like the Plateau here in East TH gets nailed as well

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Yep considering a thread since it looks like some areas will see freezing rain early next week

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[/quote]

I'll pass on that fun!


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bigstick10 link said:
Torch.............Of course everyone jumped my ass earlier...
814temp_new.thumb.gif.615b20f7716d6c17e24a0a04fd501308.gif
Click to expand...
I hate these maps...they can be misleading because of the pretty bright colors...you could have a 70% chance of your  high one degree above normal, and it looks like torch city. One of the most useless maps ever concieved.

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bigstick10 link said:
Torch.............Of course everyone jumped my ass earlier...
Click to expand...

Above average here? Ha, there isn't even an average temp on a model run in that timeframe.

I hate those maps
 
Re: December Discussion

Brent link said:
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg1872#msg1872 date=1481674606]
Torch.............Of course everyone jumped my ass earlier...
Click to expand...

Above average here? Ha, there isn't even an average temp on a model run in that timeframe.
[/quote]
This is what I was talking about being misleading...According to the map Dallas has a 30 to 40 percent chance of the average temp for the week being AN, even if it's only 1 degree. So basically you have a better chance guessing a coin toss.
But if you just glance at the map, it looks like it's going to be really warm...it's also why the map changes so frequently.

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Another thing misleading is it uses the daily average, which doesnt exactly correlate to high temps. Your high can be -4 below normal, but the overnight lows are +5 above due to clouds or precip and your daily avg would be a +1. If they believe there's a 60% chance of that happening, you end of bright red, making it appear as if the high temp is a torch.

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Cad Wedge NC link said:
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg1872#msg1872 date=1481674606]
Torch.............Of course everyone jumped my ass earlier...
814temp_new.thumb.gif.615b20f7716d6c17e24a0a04fd501308.gif
Click to expand...
We take those maps with a grain of salt.
[/quote]
yep they are horrible

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Rain Cold link said:
Lol
Click to expand...
He don't always post in weather forums, but when he does, it's shirtless! :)
 
I think the advertised torch is a bunch of overblown hot air. Near or slightly above normal maybe, full blown torch just don't see it.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
How cold does it have to be for him to put a shirt on?
Click to expand...

The thermometer is incapable of registering such values.
 
Brent link said:
Might be tornadoes in Alabama on Christmas Eve with the 0z GFS lol
Click to expand...
yeah, then the day after Christmas it gets cold nation wide, Lol.
 
00Z CMC is about 24 hours faster than the GFS with the Vort on Tuesday instead of Wednesday leading to an icy mix from the ArkLaTex thru west & middle Tenn on Tuesday.

00cmc.jpg
 
6z GFS say Christmas torch is legit and Jammin January ain't starting off to great either!
 
If someone can post the qpf from euro for my area in arkansas，i would appreciate it for this wknds event. Thanks.
 
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