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Pattern December Discussion

That's something I've noticed with the GFS over the years, it's gotten better at not teasing you. Usually if there is actually a storm threat, it's going to stick and you'll be able to tell.

December usually isn't a big winter weather threat month historically so it starting out how it has is not surprising, the good news is, it's actually been somewhat cold at times.
 
So basically after saturday morning's possible "event", there's nothing in the models in the long term for North GA?
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg2077#msg2077 date=1481755816]
Year of the cutter.... :mad:
a week and a half into winter lol

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[/quote]

Nothing like a good cutter to bring a nice cold rain


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NorthGaWinter link said:
Year of the cutter.... :mad:

I would bet that most winters, especially non-El Nino, have a good number of cutters. This is just the start. So, I'd expect a good many more this winter regardless of whether or not north Ga gets a major winter storm this winter.
 
SD link said:
I'd love to be in Buffalo tonight

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Yeah, that's bucket-list stuff!! Probably would get old every winter though!?? Lol
 
bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg2070#msg2070 date=1481753935]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2043#msg2043 date=1481740103]
Brent, I am considering moving to the Dallas area very soon and was wondering if you could give me information on what winters are like there. I'm guessing I wouldn't have to worry about the SE ridge as much. Also, it seems like TX  is usually in a more favorable location for wintry weather than GA and it seems like in general the weather there is more changeable and interesting. Also, what about humidity in summer. Is it more tolerable than in the southeast ?

Honestly I hate half the year here. Summer drags on entirely too long Lol. It is more of a dry heat but its still hot. At night it can stay in the 80s. It can hit 100 in april and october and usually does it at least 20 or 30 times a summer. Spring and fall can be eventful but also can just be more summer. Winters are hit and miss like I've said before historically it really isn't any better than Atlanta is. We get more ice than snow here usually if it does come down to it. It also is not uncommon to be 75 for a week in the winter. We are more prone to extreme temperature drops but that doesn't equal snow. If I was moving somewhere for snow I'd move elsewhere that's for sure.
[/quote]

You both have a lot to learn.  Seriously moving to Dallas to get ''winter", LMAO.
[/quote]

Lol trust me I didn't come here for the winters...
 
Re: December Discussion

Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2090#msg2090 date=1481764063]
I'd love to be in Buffalo tonight

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Yeah, that's bucket-list stuff!! Probably would get old every winter though!?? Lol
[/quote]
After this summer I'll take buffalo winters, If we don't see 95+ for 10 years I'll be good

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bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg2070#msg2070 date=1481753935]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2043#msg2043 date=1481740103]
Brent, I am considering moving to the Dallas area very soon and was wondering if you could give me information on what winters are like there. I'm guessing I wouldn't have to worry about the SE ridge as much. Also, it seems like TX  is usually in a more favorable location for wintry weather than GA and it seems like in general the weather there is more changeable and interesting. Also, what about humidity in summer. Is it more tolerable than in the southeast ?

Honestly I hate half the year here. Summer drags on entirely too long Lol. It is more of a dry heat but its still hot. At night it can stay in the 80s. It can hit 100 in april and october and usually does it at least 20 or 30 times a summer. Spring and fall can be eventful but also can just be more summer. Winters are hit and miss like I've said before historically it really isn't any better than Atlanta is. We get more ice than snow here usually if it does come down to it. It also is not uncommon to be 75 for a week in the winter. We are more prone to extreme temperature drops but that doesn't equal snow. If I was moving somewhere for snow I'd move elsewhere that's for sure.
[/quote]

You both have a lot to learn.  Seriously moving to Dallas to get ''winter", LMAO.
[/quote] I never said I was moving to Dallas to get "winter". I might be moving there for a job opportunity and was wondering what the weather is like from someone who actually lives there. The proximity to tornado alley would be interesting and might be fun to go on a chase.  I know Dallas doesn't get snow every winter but compared to GA, the weather just seems more interesting overall except probably in summer where it stays hot and dry in Dallas much of the time.
 
Brent link said:
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg2074#msg2074 date=1481755189]
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg2070#msg2070 date=1481753935]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2043#msg2043 date=1481740103]
Brent, I am considering moving to the Dallas area very soon and was wondering if you could give me information on what winters are like there. I'm guessing I wouldn't have to worry about the SE ridge as much. Also, it seems like TX  is usually in a more favorable location for wintry weather than GA and it seems like in general the weather there is more changeable and interesting. Also, what about humidity in summer. Is it more tolerable than in the southeast ?

Honestly I hate half the year here. Summer drags on entirely too long Lol. It is more of a dry heat but its still hot. At night it can stay in the 80s. It can hit 100 in april and october and usually does it at least 20 or 30 times a summer. Spring and fall can be eventful but also can just be more summer. Winters are hit and miss like I've said before historically it really isn't any better than Atlanta is. We get more ice than snow here usually if it does come down to it. It also is not uncommon to be 75 for a week in the winter. We are more prone to extreme temperature drops but that doesn't equal snow. If I was moving somewhere for snow I'd move elsewhere that's for sure.
[/quote]

You both have a lot to learn.  Seriously moving to Dallas to get ''winter", LMAO.
[/quote]

Lol trust me I didn't come here for the winters...
[/quote] Well, I'm sure a lot of people do come to Dallas for winters ( to get away from the cold and snow). But the job market just seems so good in Texas compared to most of the country, so that's why i'm looking into possibly moving there. Lots of opportunity in Texas and cheap cost of leaving overall. And no INCOME TAX right ? This should probably go in banter lol.
 
Its usually either one extreme or another here either it doesn't rain for seemingly months or were getting destroyed by hail tornadoes or flooding. Snow is a freakshow just like it is in Atlanta.  :p

But yeah this is straying off topic lol
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2090#msg2090 date=1481764063]
I'd love to be in Buffalo tonight

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Yeah, that's bucket-list stuff!! Probably would get old every winter though!?? Lol
[/quote]

There's a few lightning strikes in that band.
 
Brent link said:
Its usually either one extreme or another here either it doesn't rain for seemingly months or were getting destroyed by hail tornadoes or flooding. Snow is a freakshow just like it is in Atlanta.  :p

But yeah this is straying off topic lol
It definitely seems like Dallas has more extremes than Atlanta. Being in the middle of the country is probably why i'm guessing. Oh and i'm sure that stupid Southeast Ridge isn't as big of a factor in Dallas.
 
SD link said:
I'd love to be in Buffalo tonight

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Made me look, webcams. The life of the buffalo snowweenie. He actually prays for the southwest wind. Us we pray for the ne wind so we can luck up and see freezing drizzle accumulate to a tenth of an inch on a dogwood tree.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg2097#msg2097 date=1481765214]
Its usually either one extreme or another here either it doesn't rain for seemingly months or were getting destroyed by hail tornadoes or flooding. Snow is a freakshow just like it is in Atlanta.  :p

But yeah this is straying off topic lol
It definitely seems like Dallas has more extremes than Atlanta. Being in the middle of the country is probably why i'm guessing. Oh and i'm sure that stupid Southeast Ridge isn't as big of a factor in Dallas.
[/quote]

No but we have our very own death ridge in the summer some years so...
 
Maybe I just have very low standards but last year we were tracking tornadoes on Christmas so if I could even just get a chilly rain or a cool drizzly day around Christmas I would call it a win! Anything but shorts and flips flops!
 
Re: December Discussion

00z gfs pops an I interesting  coastal next Tuesday

as does the cmc
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Re: December Discussion

what a fun gfs run at H5 . so many vorts flying around trying to dig
3da9e41ed58437f24ca80f290c6958d4.jpg
4d9b7ab35832c17a944e56708ba65e33.jpg


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SD link said:
I'd love to be in Buffalo tonight

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I could only imagine what it'd be like living somewhere that gets that much snow. I'm sure lots of people would get sick of it but not me. I absolutely love the cold and I'm usually outside way more during winter then summer.
 
olhausen link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2090#msg2090 date=1481764063]
I'd love to be in Buffalo tonight

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I could only imagine what it'd be like living somewhere that gets that much snow. I'm sure lots of people would get sick of it but not me. I absolutely love the cold and I'm usually outside way more during winter then summer.
[/quote]

I've thought about it before, but I think it'd get old quick. I just want to move somewhere where snow is at least guaranteed to happen once a winter. Even Oklahoma is better than this lol

Although Denver has intrigued me before but it seems everyone is moving to Denver lol
 
Brent link said:
[quote author=olhausen link=topic=2.msg2120#msg2120 date=1481785074]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2090#msg2090 date=1481764063]
I'd love to be in Buffalo tonight

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

I could only imagine what it'd be like living somewhere that gets that much snow. I'm sure lots of people would get sick of it but not me. I absolutely love the cold and I'm usually outside way more during winter then summer.
[/quote]

I've thought about it before, but I think it'd get old quick. I just want to move somewhere where snow is at least guaranteed to happen once a winter. Even Oklahoma is better than this lol

Although Denver has intrigued me before but it seems everyone is moving to Denver lol
[/quote] I'm with you. I love snow but i think a lot of that has to do with the fact that it's such a novelty here. Living somewhere that snow was a way of life would probably make me view snow differently. I really don't like the idea of having to drive in snow, shovel snow, etc. To me, i think the I-40 corridor anywhere from Oklahoma City to Raleigh would be good because you are guaranteed snow every winter but you don't get enough snow to get sick of it.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg2121#msg2121 date=1481786496]
[quote author=olhausen link=topic=2.msg2120#msg2120 date=1481785074]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2090#msg2090 date=1481764063]
I'd love to be in Buffalo tonight

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

I could only imagine what it'd be like living somewhere that gets that much snow. I'm sure lots of people would get sick of it but not me. I absolutely love the cold and I'm usually outside way more during winter then summer.
[/quote]

I've thought about it before, but I think it'd get old quick. I just want to move somewhere where snow is at least guaranteed to happen once a winter. Even Oklahoma is better than this lol

Although Denver has intrigued me before but it seems everyone is moving to Denver lol
[/quote] I'm with you. I love snow but i think a lot of that has to do with the fact that it's such a novelty here. Living somewhere that snow was a way of life would probably make me view snow differently. I really don't like the idea of having to drive in snow, shovel snow, etc. To me, i think the I-40 corridor anywhere from Oklahoma City to Raleigh would be good because you are guaranteed snow every winter but you don't get enough snow to get sick of it.
[/quote]

Cost of living in Oklahoma is a lot less too... I research it more than I care to admit lol. One thing I do hate about Dallas the most is how expensive it is to live around here. It's impossible to live on your own in the metroplex with my income. Sooner or later something will give on that. Luckily right now I live 5 minutes from work(with roommates) so it's not really an issue.
 
On this date back in 1930, a massive, multi-day snowstorm struck much of North Carolina. A cold air damming (CAD) high setup over the northeastern US & mid-Atlantic & a weak coastal low developed off the Carolinas late on the 16th & 17th, causing light-moderate mixed wintry precipitation to break out late on the 15th & 16th, and heavier precipitation became evident on the 17th as the coastal low approached & passed NC. The heaviest snows were reported in the northern piedmont, where as much as 2 feet of snow fell on Roxboro, NC & Reidsville. A mix of rain & snow occurred from the Triangle area & points south & east towards the coastal plain.
December-15-18-1930-NC-Snowmap.png


These are a few surface maps (via NOAA 20CRv2) over the course of this storm.
1930121700.gif


1930121800.gif
 
SD link said:
Not much excitement in those 0z runs but at least some interesting looks around Christmas
just affraid that system Shane around Xmas.  Be cold chasing moisture ...  We're not getting enough energy from these waves to dig enough south to provide quality deep cold air with abundant moisture ... I myself pretty much punting December to be honest  hope January better. Though I thjnk j it starts off pooping the bed first half of it
 
tennessee storm link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2136#msg2136 date=1481814557]
Not much excitement in those 0z runs but at least some interesting looks around Christmas
just affraid that system Shane around Xmas.  Be cold chasing moisture ...  We're not getting enough energy from these waves to dig enough south to provide quality deep cold air with abundant moisture ... I myself pretty much punting December to be honest  hope January better. Though I thjnk j it starts off pooping the bed first half of it
[/quote]

Yeah I don't have much of an expectation for the rest of the month. Just some wedge potential maybe a little wrap around for Christmas nothing that big. I think that our best window is going to be mid January possibly pushing into late Jan. We should see another nice pacific ridge and I am hopeful that we can finally turn the NAO. We shall see
 
SD link said:
[quote author=tennessee storm link=topic=2.msg2140#msg2140 date=1481815546]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2136#msg2136 date=1481814557]
Not much excitement in those 0z runs but at least some interesting looks around Christmas
just affraid that system Shane around Xmas.  Be cold chasing moisture ...  We're not getting enough energy from these waves to dig enough south to provide quality deep cold air with abundant moisture ... I myself pretty much punting December to be honest  hope January better. Though I thjnk j it starts off pooping the bed first half of it
[/quote]

Yeah I don't have much of an expectation for the rest of the month. Just some wedge potential maybe a little wrap around for Christmas nothing that big. I think that our best window is going to be mid January possibly pushing into late Jan. We should see another nice pacific ridge and I am hopeful that we can finally turn the NAO. We shall see
[/quote]
We have moisture and we have cold. Let's see if we can get the low to dig. I mean it's ALL we have right now. As it stands, wrap around is the biggest farce.


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A little delayed but our now after Christmas moisture chasing cold is still there
170eb36371dcc10fd174cf478581dc0d.png



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SD link said:
The slight PNA rise after Christmas makes me want to have interest.....reality makes me not
Yeah it tries for a little bit that run . blocking trying to establish around Alaska as well. but as we see daily , it's just another possible solution from the gfs

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2151#msg2151 date=1481821443]
The slight PNA rise after Christmas makes me want to have interest.....reality makes me not
Yeah it tries for a little bit that run . blocking trying to establish around Alaska as well. but as we see daily , it's just another possible solution from the gfs

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[/quote]

I would almost be inclined to believe OPs over ensemble means right now given how active things are....either way its hard to find what I'm looking for
 
PNA: Slighty negative but it turns to Positive (good)
AO: Positive but starts to go down to negative (good)
NAO: Negative but starts to go a positive (bad)
With the positive PNA, it starts to get a little more conductive for winter weather.
 
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