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Pattern December Discussion

Still too early to take it seriously. If it gets within 5 days and there's still potential then its game on.
 
12z Euro Snow Clown thru 240
0e13fe6427c075de5c0f2a861b66b8bd.jpg




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Wow what a swing. Euro has been full of them this year. Got to admit tho, there is so much cold air, it's going to be hard to suppress it.
 
So who exactly are they talking about here...From Spann's Weather Blog at 1pm today:
Beware Of The “Fake Weather” News
It is important to note there is no firm evidence here of any snow or ice problems for Alabama for the next 7 to 10 days. It is very easy to find dozens of “weather pages and forecast centers” across social media that will give you a snow forecast one to two weeks in advance ANYTIME in every winter season… that is how they get their likes, shares, and clicks. We giggle at the concern over “fake news” these days… we have been dealing with “fake weather” sites for a long time. Welcome to our world.
;D
 
Hm, did the WXBell snow maps finally remove ice from their snow totals?!  Looking at that new Euro map says so!
 
Deltadog03 link said:
Wow what a swing. Euro has been full of them this year. Got to admit tho, there is so much cold air, it's going to be hard to suppress it.

I second that Chris...


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Supershow link said:
So who exactly are they talking about here...From Spann's Weather Blog at 1pm today:
Beware Of The “Fake Weather” News
It is important to note there is no firm evidence here of any snow or ice problems for Alabama for the next 7 to 10 days. It is very easy to find dozens of “weather pages and forecast centers” across social media that will give you a snow forecast one to two weeks in advance ANYTIME in every winter season… that is how they get their likes, shares, and clicks. We giggle at the concern over “fake news” these days… we have been dealing with “fake weather” sites for a long time. Welcome to our world.
;D
funny how Spann is complaining about people forecasting snow one week advance when he was showing maps showing rain 10 days in advance back in November. Spain is a joke and a hypocrite.
 
Starburst link said:
Hm, did the WXBell snow maps finally remove ice from their snow totals?!  Looking at that new Euro map says so!
yes the storm Vista clown looks much different

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg949#msg949 date=1481312782]
Hm, did the WXBell snow maps finally remove ice from their snow totals?!  Looking at that new Euro map says so!
yes the storm Vista clown looks much different

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[/quote]

No doubt verbatim this would be a crippling ice storm for many but we know models struggle with arctic airmasses at times and struggle even more with the strength of the CAD so..... stay  tuned and buckle up gonna be a bumpy ride
 
Trends for ice have been there. Let's work on them damn 850s
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg953#msg953 date=1481313247]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg949#msg949 date=1481312782]
Hm, did the WXBell snow maps finally remove ice from their snow totals?!  Looking at that new Euro map says so!
yes the storm Vista clown looks much different

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

No doubt verbatim this would be a crippling ice storm for many but we know models struggle with arctic airmasses at times and struggle even more with the strength of the CAD so..... stay  tuned and buckle up gonna be a bumpy ride
[/quote] don't the models usually underestimate the strength of CAD rather than overestimate ?
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=2.msg954#msg954 date=1481313576]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg953#msg953 date=1481313247]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg949#msg949 date=1481312782]
Hm, did the WXBell snow maps finally remove ice from their snow totals?!  Looking at that new Euro map says so!
yes the storm Vista clown looks much different

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

No doubt verbatim this would be a crippling ice storm for many but we know models struggle with arctic airmasses at times and struggle even more with the strength of the CAD so..... stay  tuned and buckle up gonna be a bumpy ride
[/quote] don't the models usually underestimate the strength of CAD rather than overestimate ?
[/quote]

Not him, but yes.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=2.msg954#msg954 date=1481313576]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg953#msg953 date=1481313247]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg949#msg949 date=1481312782]
Hm, did the WXBell snow maps finally remove ice from their snow totals?!  Looking at that new Euro map says so!
yes the storm Vista clown looks much different

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

No doubt verbatim this would be a crippling ice storm for many but we know models struggle with arctic airmasses at times and struggle even more with the strength of the CAD so..... stay  tuned and buckle up gonna be a bumpy ride
[/quote] don't the models usually underestimate the strength of CAD rather than overestimate ?
[/quote]

For the prime CAD regions, usually.  The wedge tends to hold on stronger and longer than forecast in all seasons.  Models also struggle with dew-points before moisture moves in during a wedge scenario.

Edit:  It's one of those things you have to live and be around for years to fully respect how bad modeling handles it.  I can't count how many times just in the forecast discussion here in Columbia, SC I read things like "wedge stronger" "wedge holding on much longer than anticipated" "due to lingering wedge, kept temps lower side of guidance" etc.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=GaStorm link=topic=2.msg897#msg897 date=1481307696]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg895#msg895 date=1481307339]
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg877#msg877 date=1481303460]
Larry.... December ice storms are kinda rare, correct? Gfs para, CMC and euro all hinting at a CAD setup with blazing 850s

Speaking for ATL, itself, major ice storms are kind of rare in early to mid Dec. though there was a major one in north ATL in mid Dec. of 2005 and a significant one in early Dec. of 1971. Also, there was a huge sleet storm in mid Dec. of 1917. But though they are far from unheard of, they are pretty rare. They pick up in frequency during the last week of Dec. For example, Christmas has had major ice on three occasions!

For NC/SC/GA major CAD areas in general: here are the dates of major DEC ZR in parts or all of this area just for 1950-2005, alone:

12/3 (ATL got mix of mainly ZR and IP), 12/4-5 (ATL got mix of ZR and R and was no big deal), 12/6, 12/8, 12/14-15 (N ATL got major ZR), 12/20, 12/23 (ATL got mainly light IP/SN instead), 12/25 (ATL got major ZR), 12/25, 12/31 (ATL got mainly SN/IP, not ZR), 12/31
[/quote]

Hey Larry. Have you found there is more ZR in a -EPO vs. -NAO or does that matter? The last ice storm we had at least in my area in 2014 was during a -EPO. It seems that a -NAO helps deliver more snow due to the setup.
[/quote]

For major ATL ZR's: I've never analyzed with regard to EPO. I have found no correlation to monthly -NAO. A monthly -NAO seems to help a little more for SN though even that correlation isn't strong. There MAY be a slight correlation of major ZR to -PDO (not +PDO). But the strongest correlation for major ZR to an index that I've found so far is to a neutral negative ENSO, which we currently have.
[/quote]

Ok. I wasn't sure about the -EPO since the winters of 2013 and 2014 were primarily mixed precip and no -NAO. Hoping we can see a -NAO again to help with snowfall this winter.
 
Lived here all my life and more times than not models under estimate the CAD...  many times it has started as sn with forecast to change to zr, eventually it changes, but usually much later then forecast (for my area anyway, yes I'm further north haha).

Either way never underestimate the power of a strong wedge it can be a beautiful thing  ;D
 
You would think that forecasters would take into account the fact that models usually underestimate CAD but it's like they never learn.
 
metwannabe link said:
Lived here all my life and more times than not models under estimate the CAD...  many times it has started as sn with forecast to change to zr, eventually it changes, but usually much later then forecast (for my area anyway, yes I'm further north haha).

Either way never underestimate the power of a strong wedge it can be a beautiful thing  ;D

Yep even the Euro probably starts off as an hour or 2 of snow for us before going to IP then ZR that damming high building in means business
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=2.msg961#msg961 date=1481314643]
Lived here all my life and more times than not models under estimate the CAD...  many times it has started as sn with forecast to change to zr, eventually it changes, but usually much later then forecast (for my area anyway, yes I'm further north haha).

Either way never underestimate the power of a strong wedge it can be a beautiful thing  ;D

Yep even the Euro probably starts off as an hour or 2 of snow for us before going to IP then ZR that damming high building in means business
[/quote]

I literally had just texted Charlie 10 minutes before the Euro got to day 7 and 8 about how much I hate ice storms...LOL!


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg964#msg964 date=1481315293]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=2.msg961#msg961 date=1481314643]
Lived here all my life and more times than not models under estimate the CAD...  many times it has started as sn with forecast to change to zr, eventually it changes, but usually much later then forecast (for my area anyway, yes I'm further north haha).

Either way never underestimate the power of a strong wedge it can be a beautiful thing  ;D

Yep even the Euro probably starts off as an hour or 2 of snow for us before going to IP then ZR that damming high building in means business
[/quote]

I literally had just texted Charlie 10 minutes before the Euro got to day 7 and 8 about how much I hate ice storms...LOL!


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[/quote]

A few years ago, Lexington did a lot of tree trimming away from lines before Winter.  Now it's all grown back out this way at least.  Should be a wonderful conundrum if we get a substantial ice storm.  Last one we lucked out with sleet vs zr.  Got about 1/10th an inch of ZR at the end and still lost power from it.
 
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