Still too early to take it seriously. If it gets within 5 days and there's still potential then its game on.
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Pattern December Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
Wow what a swing. Euro has been full of them this year. Got to admit tho, there is so much cold air, it's going to be hard to suppress it.
So who exactly are they talking about here...From Spann's Weather Blog at 1pm today:
Beware Of The “Fake Weather†News
It is important to note there is no firm evidence here of any snow or ice problems for Alabama for the next 7 to 10 days. It is very easy to find dozens of “weather pages and forecast centers†across social media that will give you a snow forecast one to two weeks in advance ANYTIME in every winter season… that is how they get their likes, shares, and clicks. We giggle at the concern over “fake news†these days… we have been dealing with “fake weather†sites for a long time. Welcome to our world.
;D
Beware Of The “Fake Weather†News
It is important to note there is no firm evidence here of any snow or ice problems for Alabama for the next 7 to 10 days. It is very easy to find dozens of “weather pages and forecast centers†across social media that will give you a snow forecast one to two weeks in advance ANYTIME in every winter season… that is how they get their likes, shares, and clicks. We giggle at the concern over “fake news†these days… we have been dealing with “fake weather†sites for a long time. Welcome to our world.
;D
whatalife
Moderator
Deltadog03 link said:
I second that Chris...
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funny how Spann is complaining about people forecasting snow one week advance when he was showing maps showing rain 10 days in advance back in November. Spain is a joke and a hypocrite.Supershow link said:
Storm5
Member
yes the storm Vista clown looks much differentStarburst link said:
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yes the storm Vista clown looks much differentStorm5 link said:
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[/quote]
No doubt verbatim this would be a crippling ice storm for many but we know models struggle with arctic airmasses at times and struggle even more with the strength of the CAD so..... stay tuned and buckle up gonna be a bumpy ride
N
NorthGaWinter
Guest
Trends for ice have been there. Let's work on them damn 850s
yes the storm Vista clown looks much differentmetwannabe link said:
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[/quote]
No doubt verbatim this would be a crippling ice storm for many but we know models struggle with arctic airmasses at times and struggle even more with the strength of the CAD so..... stay tuned and buckle up gonna be a bumpy ride
[/quote] don't the models usually underestimate the strength of CAD rather than overestimate ?
N
NorthGaWinter
Guest
yes the storm Vista clown looks much differentSoutheastRidge link said:
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[/quote]
No doubt verbatim this would be a crippling ice storm for many but we know models struggle with arctic airmasses at times and struggle even more with the strength of the CAD so..... stay tuned and buckle up gonna be a bumpy ride
[/quote] don't the models usually underestimate the strength of CAD rather than overestimate ?
[/quote]
Not him, but yes.
yes the storm Vista clown looks much differentSoutheastRidge link said:
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[/quote]
No doubt verbatim this would be a crippling ice storm for many but we know models struggle with arctic airmasses at times and struggle even more with the strength of the CAD so..... stay tuned and buckle up gonna be a bumpy ride
[/quote] don't the models usually underestimate the strength of CAD rather than overestimate ?
[/quote]
For the prime CAD regions, usually. The wedge tends to hold on stronger and longer than forecast in all seasons. Models also struggle with dew-points before moisture moves in during a wedge scenario.
Edit: It's one of those things you have to live and be around for years to fully respect how bad modeling handles it. I can't count how many times just in the forecast discussion here in Columbia, SC I read things like "wedge stronger" "wedge holding on much longer than anticipated" "due to lingering wedge, kept temps lower side of guidance" etc.
GaWx link said:
Speaking for ATL, itself, major ice storms are kind of rare in early to mid Dec. though there was a major one in north ATL in mid Dec. of 2005 and a significant one in early Dec. of 1971. Also, there was a huge sleet storm in mid Dec. of 1917. But though they are far from unheard of, they are pretty rare. They pick up in frequency during the last week of Dec. For example, Christmas has had major ice on three occasions!
For NC/SC/GA major CAD areas in general: here are the dates of major DEC ZR in parts or all of this area just for 1950-2005, alone:
12/3 (ATL got mix of mainly ZR and IP), 12/4-5 (ATL got mix of ZR and R and was no big deal), 12/6, 12/8, 12/14-15 (N ATL got major ZR), 12/20, 12/23 (ATL got mainly light IP/SN instead), 12/25 (ATL got major ZR), 12/25, 12/31 (ATL got mainly SN/IP, not ZR), 12/31
[/quote]
Hey Larry. Have you found there is more ZR in a -EPO vs. -NAO or does that matter? The last ice storm we had at least in my area in 2014 was during a -EPO. It seems that a -NAO helps deliver more snow due to the setup.
[/quote]
For major ATL ZR's: I've never analyzed with regard to EPO. I have found no correlation to monthly -NAO. A monthly -NAO seems to help a little more for SN though even that correlation isn't strong. There MAY be a slight correlation of major ZR to -PDO (not +PDO). But the strongest correlation for major ZR to an index that I've found so far is to a neutral negative ENSO, which we currently have.
[/quote]
Ok. I wasn't sure about the -EPO since the winters of 2013 and 2014 were primarily mixed precip and no -NAO. Hoping we can see a -NAO again to help with snowfall this winter.
Lived here all my life and more times than not models under estimate the CAD... many times it has started as sn with forecast to change to zr, eventually it changes, but usually much later then forecast (for my area anyway, yes I'm further north haha).
Either way never underestimate the power of a strong wedge it can be a beautiful thing ;D
Either way never underestimate the power of a strong wedge it can be a beautiful thing ;D
You would think that forecasters would take into account the fact that models usually underestimate CAD but it's like they never learn.
metwannabe link said:
Yep even the Euro probably starts off as an hour or 2 of snow for us before going to IP then ZR that damming high building in means business
whatalife
Moderator
SD link said:
Yep even the Euro probably starts off as an hour or 2 of snow for us before going to IP then ZR that damming high building in means business
[/quote]
I literally had just texted Charlie 10 minutes before the Euro got to day 7 and 8 about how much I hate ice storms...LOL!
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whatalife link said:
Yep even the Euro probably starts off as an hour or 2 of snow for us before going to IP then ZR that damming high building in means business
[/quote]
I literally had just texted Charlie 10 minutes before the Euro got to day 7 and 8 about how much I hate ice storms...LOL!
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[/quote]
A few years ago, Lexington did a lot of tree trimming away from lines before Winter. Now it's all grown back out this way at least. Should be a wonderful conundrum if we get a substantial ice storm. Last one we lucked out with sleet vs zr. Got about 1/10th an inch of ZR at the end and still lost power from it.