ATLwxfan
Member
If the cold gets locked we generally lose our moisture supply. That's the last thing we want. Give me active and variable all season long.
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Pattern December Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
I agree with both of you guys and the last snow that I got it was 60° the day before and the next day I had 4.5" of snow on the ground.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
ATLWxFan link said:
That's what I want to see, too. Not sure where the idea came from if we don't have arctic blasts that last a week then it's all doom and gloom for winter. But it seems like a few on these weather boards think that way.
Brick Tamland link said:
It definitely helps statistically to get like a 4-5 day period of cold but the key is usually that the cold not be very intense in advance of a storm. It is best that the several day period of cold be more like 8- 15 degrees colder than normal from the bottom of a glancing blow and absolutely not something like a peak cold of 20+ colder than normal, which usually means little chance for a major storm due to it being an Arctic plunge. I've done an extensive search through SE US daily temperature records since the late 1800's to determine this. Whereas there'd be a good chance for flurries or even a fairly small accumulation with a deep Arctic plunge, there's little chance for a significant to major widespread upper SE winter storm when it is deep because that usually means there is too rapid warming on the backside of an Arctic high due to much warmer SE winds as the moisture returns. A much better scenario is a wide strong Arctic high with a center that tracks well to our north (say, in the Midwest) but which has its southern end into the SE US. That allows the best shot at a big storm as Gulf moisture is able to return over the top of the southern end of the Arctic airmass as opposed to having to wait for a deeply plunging high to bodily move offshore.
ATLwxfan
Member
Judah Cohen calling for a lovely southeast ridge next week amidst all this silly PV talk.
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ATLWxFan link said:
You can't disagree with some SE ridge bubbling as the pattern goes into what looks like pretty climo favored for a nina with the GLAAM tanking and the GWO going from P1-2 which leads to shots of cold with above normal warmth and rain in between. It also favors a significant winter storm or 2 for the Arklatex region through western Tn into Kentucky.
So your wildcard/players become the EPO ridge, PV, SE ridge and how do they all interact. Does the ridge in the pacific and near Canada grow enough and displace east so that the vorticies in Canada are far enough south and east so they can suppress the SE ridge which would put us in line for wintry weather or is the pacific ridge weaker/west allowing the PV to be farther from the region so you get more of a SE ridge response
Storm5
Member
well that's good seeing as how he hasn't been right in the last three yearsATLWxFan link said:
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Storm5
Member
GaWx link said:
It definitely helps statistically to get like a 4-5 day period of cold but the key is usually that the cold not be very intense in advance of a storm. It is best that the several day period of cold be more like 8- 15 degrees colder than normal from the bottom of a glancing blow and absolutely not something like a peak cold of 20+ colder than normal, which usually means little chance for a major storm due to it being an Arctic plunge. I've done an extensive search through SE US daily temperature records since the late 1800's to determine this. Whereas there'd be a good chance for flurries or even a fairly small accumulation with a deep Arctic plunge, there's little chance for a significant to major widespread upper SE winter storm when it is deep because that usually means there is too rapid warming on the backside of an Arctic high due to much warmer SE winds as the moisture returns. A much better scenario is a wide strong Arctic high with a center that tracks well to our north (say, in the Midwest) but which has its southern end into the SE US. That allows the best shot at a big storm as Gulf moisture is able to return over the top of the southern end of the Arctic airmass as opposed to having to wait for a deeply plunging high to bodily move offshore.
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agree, I figured you would come along with some stats. your the man Larry
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That being said about major plunges to 20+ below normal not usually being favorable for big winter storms to follow, there are obvious exceptions like Snowjam 1982 in Atlanta. In this case, the center of the high did plunge into TX although it then moved NE into the lower Midwest and then into the NE US instead of moving eastward into the SE US. So the warmup was slow as SE winds didn't come in to warm things up quickly. Instead winds shifted to a still chilly NE wind.
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1982/19820111-19820117.djvu
Also, if there is a major plunge of Arctic air deep enough into the SE US, that does give a better shot at a very rare deep, coastal SE winter storm like December of 1989 though it missed the well inland SE:
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1989/19891218-19891224.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1982/19820111-19820117.djvu
Also, if there is a major plunge of Arctic air deep enough into the SE US, that does give a better shot at a very rare deep, coastal SE winter storm like December of 1989 though it missed the well inland SE:
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1989/19891218-19891224.djvu
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Brick Tamland
Guest
well that's good seeing as how he hasn't been right in the last three yearsStorm5 link said:
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I was about to say the same thing. ;D
A low amplitude MJO is still in the EPS forecast, which tends to be favorable for an overall chilly weather pattern as per MJO history:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
With an active pattern and frequent cold shots that lays the ground work for a short lead time type system to develop, some piece of energy left behind or diving in on the heels of an exiting system and with that cold on our side of the globe, good arctic fronts moving through there is the obvious potential for an overrunning system somewhere...
That's my call... one good wintry threat/system that doesn't get picked up by the models in the lr and one good overrunning system. Give me that and I'm happy!
That's my call... one good wintry threat/system that doesn't get picked up by the models in the lr and one good overrunning system. Give me that and I'm happy!
Bingo! Like a wave popping on the Arctic front, and you get about 1-2 days notice , at most!metwannabe link said:
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WeatherLC
Guest
Bob chill over at AMWX just mentioned a possible CAD overrunning event? First I've heard about this. 84 hours out on the EPS
8-10 days outGainesvilleWX link said:
Storm5
Member
surprise surprise the 12z gfs is much different
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Storm5 link said:
Much less SE ridge
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Storm5 link said:
