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Pattern December Discussion

Starburst link said:
Lets not forget that December 2010 was also a moderate El Nino.  This year is quite different.
Click to expand...

It's more about multiple threats showing up on the models and eventually cashing in. The first couple might not work out, but eventually the models will get one right.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1524#msg1524 date=1481565485]
Lets not forget that December 2010 was also a moderate El Nino.  This year is quite different.
Click to expand...
Dec 2010 was a moderate La Nina I believe.
[/quote]

Hm, then this chart is wrong :|.  I know it was a fast transition year.  Larry where are you!

Brainfart.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1524#msg1524 date=1481565485]
Lets not forget that December 2010 was also a moderate El Nino.  This year is quite different.
Click to expand...
Dec 2010 was a moderate La Nina I believe.
[/quote]

AH yes.  I forgot that it changed in 2010 of May.  But 2010 of Feb was not bad.  My memory must be going. :(  Turns out it was a mod la nina by december of 2010.
 
Starburst link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg1526#msg1526 date=1481565787]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1524#msg1524 date=1481565485]
Lets not forget that December 2010 was also a moderate El Nino.  This year is quite different.
Click to expand...
Dec 2010 was a moderate La Nina I believe.
[/quote]

Hm, then this chart is wrong :|.  I know it was a fast transition year.  Larry where are you!
[/quote] 09-10 was moderate el Nino and 10-11 moderate La nina
 
Who else is grilling out on Christmas?

814temp_new.gif
 
While some uncertainty exists this far out, there is a chance for some wintry precip in portions of north Georgia on Friday night and Saturday morning. For updates on your forecast throughout the week, stay tuned to your local National Weather Service page or visit our website at www.weather.gov/atlanta/

"And now, we'll be right back after these messages!..
 
Starburst link said:
Who else is grilling out on Christmas?

814temp_new.gif
Click to expand...
Lets remember this photo.  Something (GFS for one) tells me this might not materialize as far to the NW of Florida / S GA as shown
 
Storm5 link said:
the cmc also is very close to crushing the Carolinas mid week . just need it to go negative tilt and boom
f8349781e19baf6e763d555348041b84.jpg
88eaac2e5477f6e6dfb4c32a5d5f1cbf.jpg


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Click to expand...

Oh the what ifs...


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12z euro has light freezing rain and snow next Tuesday in LA northern miss and western tenn

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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1521#msg1521 date=1481564603]
the cmc also is very close to crushing the Carolinas mid week . just need it to go negative tilt and boom
f8349781e19baf6e763d555348041b84.jpg
88eaac2e5477f6e6dfb4c32a5d5f1cbf.jpg


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Click to expand...

Oh the what ifs...


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[/quote]
You mean whiffs?
 
Well NC was close to a scary event (depending on 850s) by hr 180.  Still a light event possible there from the run.
 
12z euro kicking the western energy on Tuesday and not cutting it off like the gfs does

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Wow, look at that temp gradient. 20 degrees different in just a few miles.
 
here comes the midweek system and it's extremely close for northern LA , Arkansas western tenn this run

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Bad vista maps saying too warm for that second possible system for the South. :(
Parts of Northern NC may want to pay attention though.  Close.
 
Starburst link said:
Bad vista maps saying too warm for that second possible system for the South. :(
Parts of Northern NC may want to pay attention though.  Close.
Click to expand...
Lots of 33 -34 temps across N and C NC - low 40's along I20...followed by quick warm up to 60's
 
Starburst link said:
Bad vista maps saying too warm for that second possible system for the South. :(
Parts of Northern NC may want to pay attention though.  Close.
Click to expand...
all three globals have a system in that period. gonna depend on how fast the energy comes out vs cold air pulling away . also of note is the new cold push middle of next week.

no torch and not boring

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Can't argue w/how active things are right now. It will be interesting to see what happens next week.




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whatalife link said:
Can't argue w/how active things are right now. It will be interesting to see what happens next week.




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Click to expand...

All we can ask for is a chance. If the models are showing one, just have to see how it plays out.
 
Hey is there a Euro snow/ice image? Just want to kick the excitement up a notch.
 
accu35 link said:
Hey is there a Euro snow/ice image? Just want to kick the excitement up a notch.
Click to expand...
Nothing worth posting - even the 10 day clown is pretty meh for the SE - Wait for the EPS members...then we can post some crazy fantasies :D
 
Supershow link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg1559#msg1559 date=1481571089]
Hey is there a Euro snow/ice image? Just want to kick the excitement up a notch.
Click to expand...
Nothing worth posting - even the 10 day clown is pretty meh for the SE - Wait for the EPS members...then we can post some crazy fantasies :D
[/quote]
if we could only roll forward the day 10 euro op. it would be fun

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg1561#msg1561 date=1481571318]
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg1559#msg1559 date=1481571089]
Hey is there a Euro snow/ice image? Just want to kick the excitement up a notch.
Click to expand...
Nothing worth posting - even the 10 day clown is pretty meh for the SE - Wait for the EPS members...then we can post some crazy fantasies :D
[/quote]
if we could only roll forward the day 10 euro op. it would be fun

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[/quote]
We can..sort of..in the form of the EPS beginning  in about an hour
I looked at the GEFS Encembles but really couldn't find anything worth Geeking everyone up about
 
Supershow link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1562#msg1562 date=1481572025]
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg1561#msg1561 date=1481571318]
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg1559#msg1559 date=1481571089]
Hey is there a Euro snow/ice image? Just want to kick the excitement up a notch.
Click to expand...
Nothing worth posting - even the 10 day clown is pretty meh for the SE - Wait for the EPS members...then we can post some crazy fantasies :D
[/quote]
if we could only roll forward the day 10 euro op. it would be fun

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
We can..sort of..in the form of the EPS beginning  in about an hour
I looked at the GEFS Encembles but really couldn't find anything worth Geeking everyone up about
[/quote]
the eps has already started ...... I meant literally the euro op run .

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg1564#msg1564 date=1481572393]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1562#msg1562 date=1481572025]
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg1561#msg1561 date=1481571318]
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg1559#msg1559 date=1481571089]
Hey is there a Euro snow/ice image? Just want to kick the excitement up a notch.
Click to expand...
Nothing worth posting - even the 10 day clown is pretty meh for the SE - Wait for the EPS members...then we can post some crazy fantasies :D
[/quote]
if we could only roll forward the day 10 euro op. it would be fun

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
We can..sort of..in the form of the EPS beginning  in about an hour
I looked at the GEFS Encembles but really couldn't find anything worth Geeking everyone up about
[/quote]
the eps has already started ...... I meant literally the euro op run .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Hmm. The EPS has started - WB says it starts at 3:45est...maybe that was before daylight saving time?
Let's not rush the DOC - he has another 12 hours before he crushes the Snow Weenies dreams ;D
 
Starburst link said:
Well NC was close to a scary event (depending on 850s) by hr 180.  Still a light event possible there from the run.
Click to expand...

Yep just glancing over the run its probably .3 or so as freezing rain for the RDU area which would be quite the mess. With the surface winds pumping out of the north for the light precip not much chance of warming above freezing if the Euro verified.
 
Supershow link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1565#msg1565 date=1481572556]
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg1564#msg1564 date=1481572393]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1562#msg1562 date=1481572025]
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg1561#msg1561 date=1481571318]
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg1559#msg1559 date=1481571089]
Hey is there a Euro snow/ice image? Just want to kick the excitement up a notch.
Click to expand...
Nothing worth posting - even the 10 day clown is pretty meh for the SE - Wait for the EPS members...then we can post some crazy fantasies :D
[/quote]
if we could only roll forward the day 10 euro op. it would be fun

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
We can..sort of..in the form of the EPS beginning  in about an hour
I looked at the GEFS Encembles but really couldn't find anything worth Geeking everyone up about
[/quote]
the eps has already started ...... I meant literally the euro op run .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Hmm. The EPS has started - WB says it starts at 3:45est...maybe that was before daylight saving time?
Let's not rush the DOC - he has another 12 hours before he crushes the Snow Weenies dreams ;D
[/quote]
Yeah that's wrong , I wonder why they haven't changed it. it's currently out to day 6

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I'll ask ryan about the timestamp later if i remember. just asked ryan.  i'll see if he can throw a script up to account for daylight savings etc.
 
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