come back at 00z and you will get a completely different look.Storm5 link said:
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[/quote]
That's true indeed. It'll probably be just as bad, though.
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Pattern December Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
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[/quote]
That's true indeed. It'll probably be just as bad, though.
I tend to agree. I can only think of two memorable winter storms in recent years in December. (2005 ice storm and 2010 Christmas snow)GainesvilleWX link said:
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[/quote] The only memorable December storms I recall are the 2010 Christmas snow and the late December 1997 snow. There was also some snow for the northern ATL suburbs in December 2000. We didn't get any ice in December 2005 and I think December 2002 was supposed to bring an ice storm to GA but it ended up mainly being in the Carolinas.
whatalife
Moderator
00z GFS tonight will be:
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I tend to agree. I can only think of two memorable winter storms in recent years in December. (2005 ice storm and 2010 Christmas snow)SoutheastRidge link said:
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[/quote] The only memorable December storms I recall are the 2010 Christmas snow and the late December 1997 snow. There was also some snow for the northern ATL suburbs in December 2000. We didn't get any ice in December 2005 and I think December 2002 was supposed to bring an ice storm to GA but it ended up mainly being in the Carolinas.
[/quote]
You were too far west of ATL to get the Dec. 2005 ice. It was more concentrated in the northern suburbs. I got a major icing in Sandy Springs (~5 miles north of the perimeter). That (12/14-15) is actually the earliest major ATL area ZR I could find going way back.I do recall the Dec. 2000 and 1997 snows. Also, 1996, 1993 and 1989 had good snows. Dec actually did well in the period 1989-2000 averaging almost 1"/Dec in ATL officially! Still, there hasn't been what I'd call a major SN/IP there since 1917. Dec. of 1971 produced a mess but it was a mix of 1" of mainly IP and some ZR and R. That was far worse in NC.
Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
when all else fails , hug the 12z gfs para
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when all else fails , hug the 12z gfs para
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:when all else fails , hug the 12z gfs para
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Sure why not...
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W
WeatherLC
Guest
What's the French model saying? Haha
How reliable is the GFS Para ?
SoutheastRidge link said:
We have no idea yet. I love how we have a GFS Para right now since we are getting rid of the model as a whole in 2019.
Guess they are pumping as much as they can out of it.
Starburst link said:
We have no idea yet. I love how we have a GFS Para right now since we are getting rid of the model as a whole in 2019.
Guess they are pumping as much as they can out of it.
[/quote] I wonder why they are waiting so long to get rid of the model ? Why not just get rid of it in 2017 ? Also, are they replacing it with another model ?
SoutheastRidge link said:
We have no idea yet. I love how we have a GFS Para right now since we are getting rid of the model as a whole in 2019.
Guess they are pumping as much as they can out of it.
[/quote] I wonder why they are waiting so long to get rid of the model ? Why not just get rid of it in 2017 ? Also, are they replacing it with another model ?
[/quote]
Yes. I suppose we have to wait until they get it working correctly and bugs worked out. Yeah, it's something like the NGGPS. I was hearing they were keeping the name "GFS" for it, but it's an entirely new thing.
There is a bill that is being pushed through that will give much more money to weather development if the president elect will sign it.. and I don't see him not. Read over it and it's mainly computing power, better severe warnings, etc. I didn't see much of anything about climate change etc in the bill.. that would of course cluster it up with the new administration. So hopefully we'll have that signed by Feb.
Not a single word about the potential ice on Saturday from FFC this afternoon.
They used the Parallel GFS model before either last winter or the winter before that. I can't remember off the top of my head, but is there not any verification scores on how it did against the OP GFS back then? Going off of what I remember some folks saying back then it did better than the OP GFS did.
Weatherlover92 link said:
I think the Para is usually just the GFS with some upgrades/changes they run alongside the main GFS to see how it's doing before they replace GFS with it. I had looked for the changes on this revision of the GFS (the new para) and couldn't find too much. So basically, it should be new changes on this one from the other para if that makes sense. Think of the Para as the GFS but constantly seeing changes and if it performs well, it will eventually have the Para tag removed and called the stable GFS. THen the process continues again when they tweak/change code.
Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
so SD has been teaching me about the AAM something I never even looked at until a few months ago. But with it dropping like it's forecast to do there is absolutely NOTHING to offset the SE ridge that comes from the drop. If we had a -NAO it would help with beating down the ridge enough to where we would not be miserable, but we don't have one and there isn't one in sight.
So just remember a dropping AAM = southeast ridge..... unless you have something in place to help offset it
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so SD has been teaching me about the AAM something I never even looked at until a few months ago. But with it dropping like it's forecast to do there is absolutely NOTHING to offset the SE ridge that comes from the drop. If we had a -NAO it would help with beating down the ridge enough to where we would not be miserable, but we don't have one and there isn't one in sight.
So just remember a dropping AAM = southeast ridge..... unless you have something in place to help offset it
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Snowflowxxl
Member
18z GFS more of the same. Not sure why I'm still checking haha
Starburst link said:
I think the Para is usually just the GFS with some upgrades/changes they run alongside the main GFS to see how it's doing before they replace GFS with it. I had looked for the changes on this revision of the GFS (the new para) and couldn't find too much. So basically, it should be new changes on this one from the other para if that makes sense. Think of the Para as the GFS but constantly seeing changes and if it performs well, it will eventually have the Para tag removed and called the stable GFS. THen the process continues again when they tweak/change code.
[/quote]
Thanks, that makes a lot of sense.
SnowFlowXXL link said:
Not much difference in HP placement/timing, but there was a significant difference in the LP track/strength. 18z is much more weaker than 12z and not as amped up (above sub 1000mb) and it tracked further south and east through the OH valley into Upstate NY. 12z it went up into Canada. Granted, this isn't really helping us if we still don't have a decent cold source from a HP staying anchored in place to feed the CAD.
Storm5
Member
18z gfs less press with the cold and no second wave like the 12z para had . yes I'll search for anything before the pattern goes to S*** next week
18z
12z para
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18z
12z para
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:18z gfs less press with the cold and no second wave like the 12z para had . yes I'll search for anything before the pattern goes to S*** next week
18z
12z para
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Ain't much to search for is there...
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whatalife
Moderator
December Discussion
This is just a CFSv2 12z clown map of snow and only for entertainment. It's the system on the 17ish...says it's going to be a crusher...LOL!
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This is just a CFSv2 12z clown map of snow and only for entertainment. It's the system on the 17ish...says it's going to be a crusher...LOL!
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12Z Para is about 36 hours of ip/zr across northern AL/MS into TN with the second wave.Storm5 link said:18z gfs less press with the cold and no second wave like the 12z para had . yes I'll search for anything before the pattern goes to S*** next week
18z
12z para
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So many different solutions. I'll tell you what though. If we get the SER curse again (which seems likely) and we can't get rid of it, we are screwed. Ridging isn't always bad, but I've seen some potent looks on modeling of it.
whatalife
Moderator
Starburst link said:
Totally agree...
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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In about 2 -3 days, we will be in NAM range! It's deadly at 48 hours!
Aubighitter
Member
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Glad I found you guys again
JLL1973
Member
I'll take the 12z par and call it a winter
One thing is for sure - with the Para continually spitting out interesting weather for many of our areas about a week from now - we won't have to wait long to see if it is worth paying attention to the Para or not ... my money unfortunately would be on the Not.. but stranger things have happened
JHS
Member
Starburst link said:
We have no idea yet. I love how we have a GFS Para right now since we are getting rid of the model as a whole in 2019.
Guess they are pumping as much as they can out of it.
[/quote] I wonder why they are waiting so long to get rid of the model ? Why not just get rid of it in 2017 ? Also, are they replacing it with another model ?
[/quote]
Yes. I suppose we have to wait until they get it working correctly and bugs worked out. Yeah, it's something like the NGGPS. I was hearing they were keeping the name "GFS" for it, but it's an entirely new thing.
There is a bill that is being pushed through that will give much more money to weather development if the president elect will sign it.. and I don't see him not. Read over it and it's mainly computing power, better severe warnings, etc. I didn't see much of anything about climate change etc in the bill.. that would of course cluster it up with the new administration. So hopefully we'll have that signed by Feb.
[/quote]
If I'm not mistaken that bill is dead for now. A Senator from FLA changed something in it and the House of Reps did not vote again before they adjourned. The story did say that it would very likely be brought up again. BTW, I think this bill may have included a new NEXRAD radar somewhere in central NC.
How's JB today? Hugging the Hungarian?
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Said December to remember was for everybody but the SE!SD link said:
On Twitter
Said December to remember was for everybody but the SE!Tarheel1 link said:
On Twitter
[/quote]
In other words let me target my subscriber base...got it.
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whatalife
Moderator
Said December to remember was for everybody but the SE!SD link said:
On Twitter
[/quote]
In other words let me target my subscriber base...got it.
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[/quote]
Yep. He said the SE will be AN for December.
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Storm5
Member
Said December to remember was for everybody but the SE!SD link said:
On Twitter
[/quote]
In other words let me target my subscriber base...got it.
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[/quote]
100 percent . he isn't dumb, he knows how to play to his crowd
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tennessee storm
Member
to be honest... with way teleconnections start to line out in long range... I almost bout ready to punt December to be honest... but im not giving up by no means either... hopefully things get better heading to january
NCSNOW
Member
Not sure bout everyone else but here imby we are -1.4 for the young season so far. Willing to bet by next sunday we are sitting at-2 to -3 at a minimum. Throw in a shot at a winter weather advisory for some sleet , ice next weekend and that's about all I can ask for in December. I don't think Greensboro and RDU are going to end up above normal for December, regardless what JB Says. Could be wrong but the month is 2/3 rds the way over next sunday.
dsaur
Member
Just had over 5 inches of rain, and the past two nights got cold..I like this winter so far. Get some sleet to show up after Xmas, when it actually could happen, and I'll like it even better. T