Hopefully the CAD comes in stronger and we don’t end with a sleet fest in Raleigh.
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GFS has trended away since 12z yesterday
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Oh boy, here comes our cliff divers. Lol
Still 8 days out guys.
Still 8 days out guys.
The GFS is so bad it’s own ensembles don’t like it.
I have no idea what the 12z GFS did, but that was a crap shoot of a run. I'm tossing that 12z GFS run, that's not realistic at all. The low makes it's way over the apps which is unusual. With cutters, they normally move along the apps or track west of the apps.
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Give credit where credit was due if this storm does play out good for the southeast the GFS was the first one to bring it up so you have to give it a slight bit of credit
Honestly, let’s look at Gfs it actually may be right because if you look at H5 many other years that pattern has played out this time of year. It’s still 8 days out and we see Gfs bring systems lose it and eventually bring it back so who knows we just have to wait.
Let's see what the GEFS says after it runs. After a dud OP run last night it actually looked the best I've seen it yet for NC and I think a few members was also picking up some later energy too based on what I can see. If it looks better I'll toss the 12z OP considering other models have gotten more on board.
I do hope Canadian trends colder only gives me 2 inches. But just to the north about 10 miles about a foot
I honestly think it will get colder and the CAD will be underdone. I’m not a pro so I could be wrong
Euro hasn't run yet.
So far the GEFS on what I can see actually has a stronger high, but like I said I don't have pay maps, so I'll have to wait a while longer to see if it's good/bad.
Well now the high is actually weaker after starting out stronger, so let's look at the snow maps.
Hmm, despite that it still starts out looking good for NC. Let me let it go a few more frames and then I'll post it.
Hmm, despite that it still starts out looking good for NC. Let me let it go a few more frames and then I'll post it.
Western NC gets decimated on the CMC. Showing 2-3 inches per hour for 6 hours at hours 192-198. That mght be a bit overdone.
To me so far the GEFS looks like the western ridging is a tick stronger, our shortwave is a bit weaker and the NE vortex is a tick stronger. High pressure is a bit stronger on top as a result. I think that's good. Still early too though on the free maps.
FV3 is interesting. Starts out as snow in NC CAD Zone. Then transitions to an ice storm in N.C. immediate CAD areas. Improvement for sure.
Looks good to me as described above..still a southern slider with the high pressure a bit stronger than last run.
