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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Webberweather53 said:
Many (myself included) may have spoke too soon wrt canoncial December NINO warmth, the recent burst of subseasonal tropical forcing helped push the westerly momentum in the subtropics into the mid-latitudes and will try to enforce a +EPO/+NAO for a while in/around mid-December favoring large-scale warmth in the CONUS with the warmest anomalies probably in the northern US. It remains to be seen how this westerly momentum will evolve and whether it continues to propagate poleward, disintegrate entirely, etc. I was banking on this westerly momentum remaining confined in the subtropics for a while longer but that's obviously not happening
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Sigh. Hope for quick change but this might push to the new year

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SD said:
Sigh. Hope for quick change but this might push to the new year

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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It's going to be rough around here until that turns around. Good thing the holiday's will be coming up, keep our mind off it.
 
Rain Cold said:
Haha look at that Wake Co. gradient!!
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Wake always seems to be the battleground between awesome totals and zilch. It is crazy how that happens here.

Good to see the Euro showing the possibility of some fun with this system.
 
metwannabe said:
The GFS and it's replacement are worlds apart on this system.... interested to see how this plays out

GFS
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_40.png

FV3
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_40.png
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When is the old GFS going to be put out of its misery?
 
snowlover91 said:
Still plenty of time to go on this one but having the EPS trending better is good at least, hopefully the GFS will follow soon.
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There is still going to be a lot of back and forth this far out. One model might show a storm, then nothing, while another that wasn't showing one picks it up. Seen it plenty of times. I think the good thing is different models have showed something for this system at some point, and I think that's a good signal for things to come around and to get a winter storm here.
 
metwannabe said:
Well well what do ya know, just as the GFS pulls the football the King says not so fast...... I know it's still a ways out there but I'll take the EPS trending in our favor over everything else everyday and twice on Sunday, let's reel one in (especially since Dec may be headed to dumpster fire after this shot)
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I'm not sure I've seen that before, the GEFS essentially loses the threat, and the EPS goes all in. EPS looks great with the gulf low and high pressure over the top, GEFS looks like a bunch of cutters last night...very few southern sliders. Strange.

I agree though, swapping out a strong EPS signal for the GEFS is much better than the other way around.
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm not sure I've seen that before, the GEFS essentially loses the threat, and the EPS goes all in. EPS looks great with the gulf low and high pressure over the top, GEFS looks like a bunch of cutters last night...very few southern sliders. Strange.

I agree though, swapping out a strong EPS signal for the GEFS is much better than the other way around.
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Agree.... I've seen the Op runs reverse before but I'm with you not sure I've seen the ensembles do that, not this extreme anyway
 
Brick Tamland said:
Wake always seems to be the battleground between awesome totals and zilch. It is crazy how that happens here.

Good to see the Euro showing the possibility of some fun with this system.
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Same with the Atlanta area. I-85 and I-20 seem to strangely be battlegrounds a lot as well. Anyone who was west and North of I-85 got pasted last year during the December 2017 storm and anyone east or south got screwed for the most part.
 
Kylo said:
It's going to be rough around here until that turns around. Good thing the holiday's will be coming up, keep our mind off it.
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If we can score on the 9th with a warning criteria event, I think we'd all be fine with taking a 3 week break...and start fresh after the new year! But if not, that's fine. I don't annually expect winter weather until after January 1 anyway.

I just don't want the Alaska trough/+EPO to be a recurring theme this winter. Doesn't seem like it will, but if for some reason it is, that's a downer for sure.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Many (myself included) may have spoke too soon wrt canoncial December NINO warmth, the recent burst of subseasonal tropical forcing helped push the westerly momentum in the subtropics into the mid-latitudes and will try to enforce a +EPO/+NAO for a while in/around mid-December favoring large-scale warmth in the CONUS with the warmest anomalies probably in the northern US. It remains to be seen how this westerly momentum will evolve and whether it continues to propagate poleward, disintegrate entirely, etc. I was banking on this westerly momentum remaining confined in the subtropics for a while longer but that's obviously not happening
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Alot of this is over my head still, but I come to realize that no matter what we are headed to, seem like we score once or twice somehow with a storm. Trying to stay positive lol.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree with the posts saying the warmer temps are coming, but I also think it's possible the SE might not be the worst (when it comes to departures from normal).
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Correct, looks like the mid west and north will feel the warmth and we will be closer to A or slightly above, it also looks temporary so the normal thaw in full effect.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree with the posts saying the warmer temps are coming, but I also think it's possible the SE might not be the worst (when it comes to departures from normal).
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All I agree to is God is good, mello yellow is tasty and my four year old could draw a more accurate chart than our models.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Many (myself included) may have spoke too soon wrt canoncial December NINO warmth, the recent burst of subseasonal tropical forcing helped push the westerly momentum in the subtropics into the mid-latitudes and will try to enforce a +EPO/+NAO for a while in/around mid-December favoring large-scale warmth in the CONUS with the warmest anomalies probably in the northern US. It remains to be seen how this westerly momentum will evolve and whether it continues to propagate poleward, disintegrate entirely, etc. I was banking on this westerly momentum remaining confined in the subtropics for a while longer but that's obviously not happening
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To what degree would this warmth be? Are we talking slightly above A or worse? Also, how long do you see it lasting? Thanks for all the in depth posts Webb
 
Can someone tell me where I can find the map below for KCHA? I seem to have forgotten the site. I hope I'll need that map for this winter.

2db6bd5fb280470a14e143c5d39be9a2.jpg
 
RobertRath said:
To what degree would this warmth be? Are we talking slightly above A or worse? Also, how long do you see it lasting? Thanks for all the in depth posts Webb
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It's hard to get a read on how long these momentum regimes persist when you have a subtropical AAM anomaly propagating into the mid-latitudes because they can be enhanced by basic state forcing regimes, eroded by renewed bouts of tropical forcing or even a SSWE, but most last anywhere from a few weeks to a few months, most of us should hope it lasts a few weeks not months. The pattern we're going into in mid December, while warm for us here, is usually a precursor to major sudden stratospheric warming events way down the road with low heights over the Bering Sea, Alaska, and far eastern Siberia superimposed onto the planetary-scale vortex that exists there in the means.
 
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