• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

00z was probably more realistic. The only runs putting a lot of us in the game feature a 1040’ish HP pushing our storm south in the middle of the country. Might be time to accept that this HP will probably verify around 1036 max. I just don’t know if a 1040 is very realistic anymore. Hate to be a downer. This thing is most likely going to cut. I would love to be wrong though..
 
8C1ABB7C-C4D9-48FD-884E-37E4CFE1192E.png
1329F62E-E597-442E-B126-C1F4652CABB8.png

I know one thing. I don’t believe that low would jump from Brownsville, tx to New Orleans, la with that high sitting over Wisconsin.
 
Storm5 said:
I hate the mid Atlantic


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

They're getting a nice winter storm I think regardless. Doesn't matter what model you look at. :(

We knew the 0z was going to be bad. So will the 6z. Then 12z will bring it back again...crazy pattern thats going on 3 days now. Really weird.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
00z was probably more realistic. The only runs putting a lot of us in the game feature a 1040’ish HP pushing our storm south in the middle of the country. Might be time to accept that this HP will probably verify around 1036 max. I just don’t know if a 1040 is very realistic anymore. Hate to be a downer. This thing is most likely going to cut. I would love to be wrong though..
Click to expand...
We don't need a HP that strong just to get a decent winter storm though, it can be as weak as the 1020s and still get the job done, placement/timing is more important imo.
 
WeatherNC said:
IMO good run at this stage and why are we focusing at the surface? Better than SN output but what happened to H5, solid players on the field, just need to dial in timing and axis.
Click to expand...

+100 to this. It’s pretty pointless to focus on specific OP runs and surface features so far out because they’ll change again next run. By Sunday and Monday things will start locking in at 5H but for now the overall players are on the field and we just have to wait and see how the timing shakes out.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
We don't need a HP that strong just to get a decent winter storm though, it can be as weak as the 1020s and still get the job done, placement/timing is more important imo.
Click to expand...
my concern is that we need a feature to shove our storm south early and keep it there. It’s going to take a pretty strong high pressure to do so I’m afraid. That’s what we have been lacking on every other global model which is why the have been showing rain for most on this board
 
gfs_asnow_us_40.png
 
DarkKnight said:
Can you go in more detail for us?? Thumbs up...
Click to expand...

What's driving the GOM surface low, an H5 cutoff coming onshore in central CA around day 5 (consistent across the OP globals, likely real) and opening up in to a short-wave trough. Law of averages this should exit the EC around the same latitude it entered the WC at, absent amplification. Amplification is still diffuse at this stage but likely northern stream energy entering CONUS in MT, that's a solid EC look for sharpening of the leading southern wave if timing works out. Hope that helped...
 
Biggest difference I see is the placement and strength of the Low up around SE Canada

18z418FD8CE-0BA6-4380-929E-C5531297B259.png

12z3EC7118D-53C1-4EFD-99B6-697E4996FB98.png

Can someone explain how that could be hindering us?
 
WeatherNC said:
What's driving the GOM surface low, an H5 cutoff coming onshore in central CA around day 5 (consistent across the OP globals, likely real) and opening up in to a short-wave trough. Law of averages this should exit the EC around the same latitude it entered the WC at, absent amplification. Amplification is still diffuse at this stage but likely northern stream energy entering CONUS in MT, that's a solid EC look for sharpening of the leading southern wave if timing works out. Hope that helped...
Click to expand...
Yes it help me and I am sure other people will be glad to learn from this...

Thank you. :)
 
I could see this trend to a freezing rain event for cad regions. Depending on that high and how cold it trends
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Biggest difference I see is the placement and strength of the Low up around SE Canada

Can someone explain how that could be hindering us?
Click to expand...

The low is called a 50/50, MA folks like for it to be around the Bay of Fundy, us in the SE want is displaced just south. At this range, just a key player for bombogenesis around the benchmark.
 
What them ensembles showing? GEFS
 
I think the FV3, 00z GFS, and CMC have moved a tad farther south possibly catching onto GEFS and 12z and 18z GFS. IMO Still 7-8 days out but cool to see the models showing signs of agreeing with each other.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top