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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Well for tonight the EPS is your friend. The 12z EPS may be a different story...
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I would put the 500 anomalies up but I am having trouble getting them to load...


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Webberweather53 said:
There were several nice looking members on that EPS suite, I'd take any of these 6 solutions although a lot of this is probably IP/ZR in some of the southern & southeastern flanks of the heaviest axis of snow.

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Haha look at that Wake Co. gradient!!
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'd definitely prefer to have a bit more blocking over Alaska & the Bering Sea as well as a deeper vortex in SE Canada before getting more excited about a Miller B/CAD late next week. However, considering we have the right long wave mid-latitude pattern accompanying a southern stream wave in California to get one, I guess beggars can't be choosers, and this isn't half bad imo, we just have to trend in the "right" direction the next 3-4 days or so before this becomes a really legitimate threat (if at all).
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Even considering spread w/ range, last night's 0z run took a significant step in the "right" direction I referred to yesterday w/ more Alaskan ridging and a deeper SE Canada trough out in front of our shortwave over California, hence the more wintry looking run overall for the board. While synoptic/mesoscale features are virtually a lost cause to try & predict this far in advance, because planetary waves are larger in scale and tend to evolve more slowly, we're able to more easily grapple w/ their overall evolution at this range and this is what most should primarily focus their attention on until we get into the medium range (day 5-6).

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Many (myself included) may have spoke too soon wrt canoncial December NINO warmth, the recent burst of subseasonal tropical forcing helped push the westerly momentum in the subtropics into the mid-latitudes and will try to enforce a +EPO/+NAO for a while in/around mid-December favoring large-scale warmth in the CONUS with the warmest anomalies probably in the northern US. It remains to be seen how this westerly momentum will evolve and whether it continues to propagate poleward, disintegrate entirely, etc. I was banking on this westerly momentum remaining confined in the subtropics for a while longer but that's obviously not happening
 
Webberweather53 said:
"Parts of NC" as in the mountains...
You need a bigger cold high east of the Rockies, a 1018 will not get the job done in early December, maybe in January barring that there's a massive and very extensive snow pack to our north w/ snow cover extending down thru the entirety of the mid-Atlantic s.t. even the slightest amount of CAA brings sufficient cold air into the mix. Verbatim the only part of NC that would see snow in that setup are the apps and that's it. Temps are well into the 40s on the Euro for most of NC, the best way to change that is to raise the MSLP to the north & northeast of the storm &/or strengthen the low over the Canadian Maritimes s.t. there's more CAA in New England & Ontario/Quebec before the storm. Seeing a low over Ontario during the event doesn't bode well for this setup
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Verbatim the 00z FV3 was a light snow for areas outside the mountains. There's not much model support for anything right now as some models show very little QPF and others are a bit too warm but it's close enough that if something like the 00Z FV3 happens then areas outside the NC mountains could see some flakes. It's a long shot but since it's about 5-6 days out worth keeping an eye on especially if we get more favorable 5H changes.
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snowlover91 said:
Verbatim the 00z FV3 was a light snow for areas outside the mountains. There's not much model support for anything right now as some models show very little QPF and others are a bit too warm but it's close enough that if something like the 00Z FV3 happens then areas outside the NC mountains could see some flakes. It's a long shot but since it's about 5-6 days out worth keeping an eye on especially if we get more favorable 5H changes.
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Most guidance suggests this is more likely to be a mid-Atlantic or northeastern US threat and without a significant source of cold air continually being reinforced into the pattern as indicated by the lack of a strong surface high to the north, scattered flurries is the best you could possibly hope for & even then it seems like a stretch outside the mountains and VA border counties.
 
Well well what do ya know, just as the GFS pulls the football the King says not so fast...... I know it's still a ways out there but I'll take the EPS trending in our favor over everything else everyday and twice on Sunday, let's reel one in (especially since Dec may be headed to dumpster fire after this shot)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most guidance suggests this is more likely to be a mid-Atlantic or northeastern US threat and without a significant source of cold air continually being reinforced into the pattern as indicated by the lack of a strong surface high to the north, scattered flurries is the best you could possibly hope for & even then it seems like a stretch outside the mountains and VA border counties.
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Just a few days this was an apps cutter on the models with temps in the 60s so we've seen some positive trends and improvements at 5H. Still a ways to go but even if it delivered flurries to some NC folks outside the mountains I think that would make some on here quite happy :)
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metwannabe said:
Well well what do ya know, just as the GFS pulls the football the King says not so fast...... I know it's still a ways out there but I'll take the EPS trending in our favor over everything else everyday and twice on Sunday, let's reel one in (especially since Dec may be headed to dumpster fire after this shot)
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Still plenty of time to go on this one but having the EPS trending better is good at least, hopefully the GFS will follow soon.
 
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