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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

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last night 0z run low headed south
 
I85 special or Cad area special..I would take that and call it a year!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
my concern is that we need a feature to shove our storm south early and keep it there. It’s going to take a pretty strong high pressure to do so I’m afraid. That’s what we have been lacking on every other global model which is why the have been showing rain for most on this board
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If you are hoping a surface high pressure will push the low south, you will be disappointed every time. If it amps, it will come north. We need a combination of where the wave enters the US, separation in shortwaves diving in from the north to avoid phasing, right wave orientation and the perfect location of the 50/50. WeatherNC explained it well. The truth, it must thread the needle perfectly.
 
Well, the 6z GFS was a wild ride. The HP was slightly ahead of the low this run. That allowed the CAD areas to get a little colder, and also slowed the system down. The low ended up tracking inland for a perfect run for DC. However, the upper level energy ended up igniting another system which gives much of NC 6+ inches of powdery goodness. Take a look:

First system:
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And after the second part of the storm:
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ForsythSnow said:
Don't bother looking at the 6Z GFS. It's way too warm but at least the low is not as far south as 0Z.
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I end up getting 8 inches of snow in my backyard from the upper level energy on the backside. That would be awesome, but very unlikely.
 
I'm not to concern with gfs 6z, 12z will have new data
 
packfan98 said:
The best looking GEFS run for the CAD areas by far. The High pressure was able to build in more prior to the moisture.
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Wow, that's pretty amazing actually. EPS looks like is stayed the course and has the mean location of the storm on the coast, southern slider as well. At day 7, that's a great signal.

Euro op looked good, but still came too far inland for my liking. But yeah, great to see it stay south and join the cad party.
 
Storm5 said:
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Wow, thanks for that. The big members have really increased for the cad areas. I don't think I've seen that big of a mean 7 days out for CLT. Anyone have the EPS mean? Looks like it held strong.

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I like how the doc was further south .Honestly the weaker that low the better. Would like to see the high anchor in a bit better too . But a good trend for the op run. Much better than Thur night run.
 
Rain Cold said:
Not crazy about the high sliding out to sea. Like that it builds in faster, but it doesn’t need to be a barn burner.
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Can we actually have a transient cold shot with moisture at the same time? Got to be perfect timing no doubt

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Rain Cold said:
Not crazy about the high sliding out to sea. Like that it builds in faster, but it doesn’t need to be a barn burner.
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The best gfs runs had it holding strong through the event, gefs seems to have that idea more than the eps. My hope is even in the worst situation in that it slides out early, the start of precip will get the insitu type wedge and holds strong as it's done in the past.
metwannabe said:
Can we actually have a transient cold shot with moisture at the same time? Got to be perfect timing no doubt

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Yeah euro moves it out quick. Gfs seems to hang it in there, just more north than we like. Maybe they'll meet in the middle. Lol.
 
I'm more excited with the second low hammering yall
 
metwannabe said:
Can we actually have a transient cold shot with moisture at the same time? Got to be perfect timing no doubt

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Man I don’t know. I guess if we’re gonna be able to pull it off, this is the year.
 
Jon said:
Not bad compared to a couple runs ago. Maybe the high slows a bit on 12z
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If we just had a bit of blocking to help maintain some confluence.... Such a balancing act.
 
That was prolly the best night of model runs we’ve had. I honestly think the 12z and 18z gfs runs could be right or close to right in the end
 
Rain Cold said:
If we just had a bit of blocking to help maintain some confluence.... Such a balancing act.
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The eps has some major changes wrt blocking and confluence digging south towards Hudson Bay at 00z 12/9. Decent trends this far out...I feel like no matter how this trends it’s not really a setup for a large snow for RDU because of the high pressure setup and confluence won’t help much and if it does it could pull the storm NW a bit. Despite the several 10”+ GEFS members....We will likely miss out to our friends to the NW, but that’s normally how it goes for this first one of the season. Odd sources of cold air really don’t work out for us (RDU). I’d like to see some stronger CAD set up in future runs


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Not ready to punt anything. All of us usually need great timing and luck regardless. This don’t look to bad to me. If we can hold that ridge and maybe nose into HB some and keep that sneaky NAO then just maybe.

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Overall, there hasn't been any significant changes with the track of low. Models are starting to come into agreement, I do believe that things will start to shift southward. Even though, there hasn't been any evidence of a solid PV over southeastern Canada during the time frame (which would help keep the system south,) but with the strong high coming down from the north, I do believe that the storm will push southward as the low tracks east. On these model runs, initially the low may appear that it wants to cut, but it will be "shoved" southward. We've seen evidence of that on some model runs.
 
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