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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

I have no idea what the 12z GFS did, but that was a crap shoot of a run. I'm tossing that 12z GFS run, that's not realistic at all. The low makes it's way over the apps which is unusual. With cutters, they normally move along the apps or track west of the apps.
 
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Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Give credit where credit was due if this storm does play out good for the southeast the GFS was the first one to bring it up so you have to give it a slight bit of credit
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Honestly, let’s look at Gfs it actually may be right because if you look at H5 many other years that pattern has played out this time of year. It’s still 8 days out and we see Gfs bring systems lose it and eventually bring it back so who knows we just have to wait.
 
Let's see what the GEFS says after it runs. After a dud OP run last night it actually looked the best I've seen it yet for NC and I think a few members was also picking up some later energy too based on what I can see. If it looks better I'll toss the 12z OP considering other models have gotten more on board.
 
I do hope Canadian trends colder only gives me 2 inches. But just to the north about 10 miles about a foot
 
Well now the high is actually weaker after starting out stronger, so let's look at the snow maps.

Hmm, despite that it still starts out looking good for NC. Let me let it go a few more frames and then I'll post it.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well now the high is actually weaker after starting out stronger, so let's look at the snow maps.

Hmm, despite that it still starts out looking good for NC. Let me let it go a few more frames and then I'll post it.
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To me so far the GEFS looks like the western ridging is a tick stronger, our shortwave is a bit weaker and the NE vortex is a tick stronger. High pressure is a bit stronger on top as a result. I think that's good. Still early too though on the free maps.
 
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Looks good to me as described above..still a southern slider with the high pressure a bit stronger than last run.

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
FV3 is interesting. Starts out as snow in NC CAD Zone. Then transitions to an ice storm in N.C. immediate CAD areas. Improvement for sure.
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Yeah, FV3 is horrible and a cutter that turns in to some Miller B transfer. Toss.

So far today, good EURO, great Canadian, good GEFS. On to the afternoon euro. Hope to see EURO correct even further south to match GEFS and its own ensembles.
 
GaStorm said:
I found an old post from Larry on December SN/IP. See below.
ATL over the last hundred years has averaged only 0.3" of SN/IP in Dec (0.1" 1st half and 0.2" 2nd half). That is only ~15% of its average seasonal total of ~2". Only 18 of the last 100 ATL Decembers have had measurable SN/IP.
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Thanks for that, GS! I was thinking more about zr. I have a feeling with warm fighting cold in early winter season that zr might be the more likely frozen precip in early Dec. Probably a mute point as the super cad seems to have returned to myth anyway, lol. But if I was betting on a big storm before Xmas I'd bet on z rain from a cad. Now super cad is another thing. T
 
You can tell the 12z GEFS is a good run. You can see the northern stream tapping in, cold SFC temps. are below freezing in NC. It will propably be colder across northern Georgia/eastern GA, upstate SC/midlands. Much like the 12z CMC with the placement of frozen precip.
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