Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

[Brick Tamland]

GFS lost it, Euro started to pick it up, and then GFS comes back like gangbusters. I said before when they go back and forth like that, but multiple models have shown a storm in the long range, that's when it usually comes together.

 

[Avalanche]

GFS was a NAM looking pounding for Triad/Triangle. I'll take my 8" total.

 

[Avalanche]

Low 40s and rain for most is a great way to start winter

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The only thing that scares me about that map is the front-end thumping is rain instead of snow. CAD getting quickly eradicated here? If not, then there needs to be a suppliant of cold air. If we are relying on CAD alone, tell me how the GFS comes up with those snow totals?

 

[WxWatch]

Just for fun, I'm going to guess that the 12z FV3 will have a widespread significant winter storm.

 

[snowlover91]

FWIW the 12z CMC has a similar idea to the GFS minus the ice and with a weaker LP.

 

[packfan98]

Just for fun, I'm going to guess that the 12z FV3 will have a widespread significant winter storm.

Yes and no. Bad track for the SE, but the Mid-Atlantic and NE score.

 

[WxWatch]

Just for fun, I'm going to guess that the 12z FV3 will have a widespread significant winter storm.

Well, the 12z FV3 is similar. There is widespread snow to the north and northeast. We need that south trend!

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Yes and no. Bad track for the SE, but the Mid-Atlantic and NE score.

That’s some heavy wet snow for NC mtns and foothills. Wow.

 

[Round Oak Weather]

Need this storm down into Georgia

 

[Avalanche]

Wow, interior Mid Atlantic getting rocked per FV3!!!! Here I come Blacksburg!!

 

[Avalanche]

Need this storm down into Georgia

Come Dec the 10th we will sing the Devil went down to Georgia

 

[Storm5]

FV3 looks great for the mountains and western NC

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[tractor girl]

Just wait for the Northwest trend and cold rain for NC.

 

[Storm5]

Real it in boys and girls only 8 days to go !!!


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[Avalanche]

FV3 looks great for the mountains and western NC

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Maybe western portions of the Triad score with this.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Need this storm down into Georgia

Let NC have December, we will take Jan-March.

 

[snowlover91]

The good news is we can't take the track as modeled seriously this far out and there is time for improvements (of course it could go the other way too). Once inside 120 hours we should have a good idea on the overall 5H setup and players on the field; the NAM will be key for any warm nose once in range.

The main takeaways at this point are that we have a strong signal for a system producing plenty of qpf and sufficient cold air nearby for a winter storm somewhere in the SE to Mid-Atlantic region. We need this to stay suppressed along the Gulf Coast region for a chance; CAD regions as usual may have the best shot here if the HP builds in ahead of the storm or as it starts.

 

[Tarheel1]

Real it in boys and girls only 8 days to go !!!


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Things just got reel!

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

My wallet could use a good snowstorm especially one that shuts everything down for atleast two days. I work at an animal hospital and every time it shows I volunteer to stay. I get paid for every minute I'm there even while I'm sleeping. One year I had 48 straight hours on the clock.

 

[Storm5]

Only way this will feel like a legit threat is that is if the 12z euro comes in with a massive cutter that buries Chicago