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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

SnowNiner said:
Yeah saw that, it was odd. Hope is the low goes south of the cad
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The low is only 1008, so it is nearly just an overrunning storm and very weak, which is obviously good for us for winter weather. Hope it trends even weaker and more south.
 
Let's see what the EPS shows. They were all over the place last night with some snow really everywhere. One member had 16 inches across N GA while another had 10 or so in Columbia SC. If they remain that way, it goes to show that we have no clear solution and the range of solutions remains wide.
 
I know everyone loved the Euro run, but does anyone trust this 500mb look???
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Jon said:
Quite a bit of freezing rain. 0.8” for RDU. Wowza
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What would the counties like Pickens and Oconee sc be getting? Shows no ice so would it be mostly snow and sleet or rain?
 
Jon said:
I know everyone loved the Euro run, but does anyone trust this 500mb look???
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That’s fine as long as the southern stream wave stays juxtaposed directly to the south of the inflection point between the departing trough over the Maritimes & the ridge over the Canadian prairies & Rockies where surface MSLP will be highest. Slower southern s/w will allow the cold high to the north to leave
 
I gotta be honest, and it's why I know I'm not great at reading the 500 maps, but at first I thought the Euro run was a step back for everyone until I saw the pay maps posted. It was great though and I see the EPS is holding.
 
Jon said:
You’d think so! The Euro op has been all over the place, but the minute it lays down snow there’s 60 posts in an hour. Lol.


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It’s what we do. :).

But, the Euro op has clearly ticked south past few runs. GEFS and EPS both agree on the threat. Gives us something to do.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That’s fine as long as the southern stream wave stays juxtaposed directly to the south of the inflection point between the departing trough over the Maritimes & the ridge over the Canadian prairies & Rockies where surface MSLP will be highest. Slower southern s/w will allow the cold high to the north to leave
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Yeah it can work, but not the prettiest.

It probably looks nothing like it from a pattern standpoint, but this reminds me of Jan 6-7 2017 as best-case. Probably better analogs but my memory is short.
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Jon said:
Yeah it can work, but not the prettiest.

It probably looks nothing like it from a pattern standpoint, but this reminds me of Jan 6-7 2017 as best-case. Probably better analogs but my memory is short.
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This last Euro run brought back Feb 12-13 2014 flashbacks. Models busted pretty bad on the intensity of the front end frontogenetical snowband.
 
Jon said:
I know everyone loved the Euro run, but does anyone trust this 500mb look???
e16014165adc2991547b8c7487bcb0ee.jpg

cff362ad88636b9aea9690d938ff03b2.jpg



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Well, yes I thought the Run was odd overall. It had the energy coming off of California and then going to East into Colorado before it started going south. Then like rain cold said it went through east across South Carolina it was just a strange run. More interested in the European ensembles
 
SnowNiner said:
Well, yes I thought the Run was odd overall. It had the energy coming off of California and then going to East into Colorado before it started going south. Then like rain cold said it went through east across South Carolina it was just a strange run. More interested in the European ensembles
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Similar shortwave location, but more relative ridging imo.

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I’ll take a 2” EPS mean at this juncture even though my gut tells me I will be heartbroken just south of the I85 snow shield. I’ve seen this movie one too many times unfortunately. Hate to be a downer. Rain is always welcome here :)
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Would this force the storm further south?
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Since the shortwave is coming out of Baja and isn’t riding down the ridge like a ski slope, it doesn’t matter that much here. The ridging matters probably due to the downstream effect on the confluence or high pressure location, as you have a ying-yang relationship there.


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’ll take a 2” EPS mean at this juncture even though my gut tells me I will be heartbroken just south of the I85 snow shield. I’ve seen this movie one too many times unfortunately. Hate to be a downer. Rain is always welcome here :)
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You are a downer! I’ve had over 1” of rain today! Next Saturday, it won’t be rain, just QPF for ice accumulation! As long as I’m not expecting snow, I can accept the warm nose, and enjoy my ice! Just get me below 32 on the ground, then enjoy!
 
12z EPS, you can definitely see the wedge. As the low makes it's way off the coast, any back side moisture would change over to snow. Looks like some parts of NC (and far parts of upstate SC) may start off as a mix of snow/sleet, but changing to all snow, if this verified. For Northern GA and the majority of Upstate SC, I'd say ice at first, then maybe a snow/sleet mix towards the end of the event. Predicting p. types with CAD can be very difficult. Of course, we won't know who will be getting what exactly till the time frame is in 84hrs, or as the event is unfolding.
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Tarheel1 said:
You are a downer! I’ve had over 1” of rain today! Next Saturday, it won’t be rain, just QPF for ice accumulation! As long as I’m not expecting snow, I can accept the warm nose, and enjoy my ice! Just get me below 32 on the ground, then enjoy!
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Convincing. I love the enthusiasm.Jimmy is back on board!!
 
I wouldn't be surprised if we see the initial shortwave kick quicker and a back side piece come down .ie what Webb showing. Could maybe see a cutoff almost
 
WxWatch said:
12z EPS, you can definitely see the wedge. As the low makes it's way off the coast, any back side moisture would change over to snow. Looks like some parts of NC (and far parts of upstate SC) may start off as a mix of snow/sleet, but changing to all snow, if this verified. For Northern GA and the majority of Upstate SC, I'd say ice at first, then maybe a snow/sleet mix towards the end of the event. Predicting p. types with CAD can be very difficult. Of course, we won't know who will be getting what exactly till the time frame is in 84hrs, or as the event is unfolding.
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I’ve lived a lot of CAD events, and RARELY, if at all , do you go to snow after sleet/ZR has started. You may get a brief period of snow at onset, but once the warm nose is present, it’s there for good, Atleast in the Upstate. The only way to get back to snow is, to have an ULL or disturbance coming through the tail end of the event
 
Yep same thing here, like in feb 2014, went from heavy snow to freezing rain and sleet than a Ull went through dropping about 3 inches, was some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen to, storm total was 9.7 inches of snow with about 0.6 of ice
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep same thing here, like in feb 2014, went from heavy snow to freezing rain and sleet than a Ull went through dropping about 3 inches, was some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen to, storm total was 9.7 inches of snow with about 0.6 of ice
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I agree, I was in Charlotte when that ULL came through in 14. I’ve never seen it snow that hard in my life. Had to be 3 inch a hour rates at some points.
 
1037 high pressure in the plains is stronger vs the 12z at hour 126. Hopefully it will push this thing further south and keep it from cutting this run.
 
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