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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Yeah going to be a roller coaster ride the next week or so..... just a friendly reminder only 6 hrs ago the GFS had our system west of the Apps, Lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's hard to get a read on how long these momentum regimes persist when you have a subtropical AAM anomaly propagating into the mid-latitudes because they can be enhanced by basic state forcing regimes, eroded by renewed bouts of tropical forcing or even a SSWE, but most last anywhere from a few weeks to a few months, most of us should hope it lasts a few weeks not months. The pattern we're going into in mid December, while warm for us here, is usually a precursor to major sudden stratospheric warming events way down the road with low heights over the Bering Sea, Alaska, and far eastern Siberia superimposed onto the planetary-scale vortex that exists there in the means.
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HM is definitely favoring a short lived warm up. I’m all for a thaw in mid December instead of wasting better climo in Jan & Feb especially if we score a storm on Dec 8-9 or so.
780DFCE8-9AAD-42E7-BCE1-3FBCE09BF5EC.png
 
packfan98 said:
Yes and no. Bad track for the SE, but the Mid-Atlantic and NE score.
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png
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That's actually quite a great set up too. The low just needs to be a bit more suppressed. Look at the highs all across the north, in decent position. Sink that low due south to Savannah and it's a major winter storm for most of NC I bet.

Now if we can get a nice fantasy EURO run, we'll have....we'll a nice EURO run I guess. Haven't really seen a great operational run yet so I'd like to see it.
 
well, the gradient from N Mecklenburg to S Mecklenburg county looks legit...I'd buy it as being realistic.

Cue Brick asking about starting a storm thread in 3...2...1...
 
12 GEFS doesn't seem to enthused though. Most of the individual members looked way north, app runners or inland runners.

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12z GEFS is actually the best it's been in days and all the trends are good. The Aleutian low is trending stronger as is the trough off the west coast, thus the western ridge is stronger. The northern stream is stronger and the s/w is faster. The Greenland ridge is weaker though. For what it's worth, the mean has the weak low riding 150 miles south of the coast.
 
If there will be a winter system coming in late next week (or shortly after) I wouldn't doubt at all that there will be a short lived warm up afterwards. A warm up don't necessarily mean bad news. Perhaps, things will set up right for a New Years winter storm after the short lived warm up. I don't want to get ahead of myself though, cause things change all the time.
 
noda-wx said:
well, the gradient from N Mecklenburg to S Mecklenburg county looks legit...I'd buy it as being realistic.

Cue Brick asking about starting a storm thread in 3...2...1...
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LOL! Need a big south trend fore sure before the linevitable 48 hour NW trend
 
SnowNiner said:
12 GEFS doesn't seem to enthused though. Most of the individual members looked way north, app runners or inland runners.

View attachment 7756
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Not a trend for the worse yet but yeah we certainly don’t want the GEFS to lose it. It had been rock steady around here until this afternoon

By the looks of this map none of the12z GEFS ensembles had a HP in a favorable spot east of the mountains
 
12Z Euro say the SOUTH may need to watch out for Severe Storms Possible on the 9th instead of Wintry Mix. Wow a long 5-10 days ahead GOD BLESS!!
 
If you want a winter storm, we need a deep vortex to park itself over SE Canada to shear out and suppress the oncoming s/w over California, as well as supply cold air to a surface high in southern Canada and the northern US. This feature is virtually non-existent on the Euro late next week hence the Panhandle Hook/Lakes cutter storm this run.
 
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