Hr 144 firing up in Texas. Here comes the moment of truth in next few frames.
High pressure still 3mb stronger this run vs old.
High pressure still 3mb stronger this run vs old.
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BHS1975
Member
1044 is what I’m looking for.
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Well she’s cutting again. Wow gfs what a piece of junk. Even with a 1037 (3 mb stronger High) she still cuts.
Toss!!!!
Toss!!!!
Jon
Member
Low is 4mb lower at 155h, bit of a stronger wedge over NC
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
18z Gfs is a no go!!!
Jessy89
Member
Not buying the cutter on gfs
Brent
Member
wow the GFS isn't even cold here
where's my dumpster fire gif
where's my dumpster fire gif
There is more snow in nw side of system for North Texas panhandle and Kansas.
Yea it’s unreal how it is cutting. Still 7 days out. Not concerned until we get 3 days out.
I’m going to say it but honestly the Gfs is Full of ---- because how is that low going to plow into a High that’s over 1030 MB. I might be wrong but I feel that the Gfs is off.
Low cutting thru Memphis hr 180. Lol
Jessy89
Member
If euro and gefs holds And cmc holds I’m not worried at all
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As seemingly abysmal as this GFS run is (not to mention the model's often laughable presentation of CAD), wintry precip still breaking out in the NC piedmont w/ a 1034 high in our own backyard; pretty nasty ice storm verbatim. Point being, even areas like upstate SC could be in play with this solution
Snownut
Member
The CAD areas of NC and SC will do well with this, Well if you like major Ice storms.
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Jessy89
Member
For now it’s showing just rain for upstate sc. would it be ice in this setup? Guessing it’s underestimating the wedge
Snownut
Member
GFS just about always underestimates the the Wedge.
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Honestly with the way Gfs setup the H5 this run places as far south as the Midlands of SC need to PAY CLOSE ATTENTION these next 5 days because it will make all the difference with a stronger high.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Finally catching up in all the fun today. I really like what I see with the models. That last Euro run was great, and it is always a big plus to have the Euro on your side. Even the not so great runs of the GFS still show winter weather here, and just seeing some this early in December is a win.
GFS is just so wrong. It clearly is the only model that is showing this cutter solution.
Snownut
Member
But the last few days it wasn't showing a cutter, give it time I bet it comes back around to a big time solution
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The gfs will probably now show this until Monday or Tuesday
GFS better than 12z but still really not sure how amp’d or where it wants to put that 50/50 low..toss
When you try to move a low pressure due north from Mississippi to Ohio into high pressure you might be a little confused as to then where to go with that downstream
If I had a snowstorm for every time I heard the GFS is wrong because it’s showing a cutter....
Just now saw the model from 12z cmc.. so close for many of us on here.
Snownut
Member
Well looks like CJ has now sounded his horn and talking a possible winter storm. He couldn't wait any longer.
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Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
#Banned
Jessy89
Member
Chris justice just did a video of it. Said snow is possible
I hate when he does this. Gets the locals talking and I really feel like it’s the ultimate jinx. He’s such a weenie
I actually think it's closer to what will verify...most likely.
Jessy89
Member
He’s like Andy wood was. To bad we don’t have Andy wood and Chris justice to listen to. Andy wood was awesome and I like Chris justice to
SCweather
Member
Lol i see it now. I am going to Gatlinburg next weekend. I bet if i go, Gatlinburg will just get rain (do to the fact this is looking like a CAD situation) and Gatlinburg sits on the Western sides of the Apps and back home will get a winter storm (Columbia, SC). If i was to stay in Columbia, they would get hit. I hope i luck out where ever i am at. With a week out, and seeing a consistent CAD like storm showing, we have room to improve. I remember in Feb 2014, Columbia was looking like it would be all freezing rain but the CAD started showing up colder and we ended up in a sleet storm forcing Jim Cantore to migrate from Columbia to Augusta. That was the last winter storm Columbia has seen. It's been nearly 5 years since Richland county has been under a Winter storm warning...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
This will be a huge coup for the GFS if right. Right now it’s Euro, Euro EPS, CMC, and GFS ensembles verses GFS. Need to check with my bookie to see where the line is at.
Another crap shoot of a GFS run. There are two other major OP models over the GFS, the CMC and Euro.
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(Note to admins, I can't login via mobile data. Brent was unable to view the fourm at one point. Other users may experience issues.)
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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I have gotten bad ice storms here before, with lows cutting through TN! It’s all about the CAD!
I’m kind of leaning that way also. It would not surprise me to see something similar to last week. On the other hand, a Euro-like solution would surprise me.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
How often does the Euro cave to the GFS versus the other way around, though?