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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

SteveVa said:
Hi everyone! I hope this board accepts SE VA folks lol

18z FV3 is a step in the right direction with regard to the speed of the system. I'm not really in the favored CAD areas, but model runs today are enough for me to get a bit excited
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We love VA people !!! Welcome


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How’s it looking for north Georgia? Just stopping by for the first time
 
SteveVa said:
Hi everyone! I hope this board accepts SE VA folks lol

18z FV3 is a step in the right direction with regard to the speed of the system. I'm not really in the favored CAD areas, but model runs today are enough for me to get a bit excited
Click to expand...
Welcome!!
 
SteveVa said:
Hi everyone! I hope this board accepts SE VA folks lol

18z FV3 is a step in the right direction with regard to the speed of the system. I'm not really in the favored CAD areas, but model runs today are enough for me to get a bit excited
Click to expand...

What part? My wife is from Newsoms.
 
Euro and GFS are both trending slower and slower with the shortwave. Before long, there isn't going to be anything to keep the storm suppressed at upper levels. What that would result in is the surface high sliding offshore as the moisture moves in, with some insitu CAD in the favored regions with a Miller B surface low that could begin as frozen before many would change over - similar to the events we've already seen. Could end up being a big winter storm for Virginia on northward depending on how far north it goes. That's been my general idea for the past few days and it still seems to me that's where we are headed in the guidance. Others are welcome to disagree as I'm sure they do!

In fact, one could argue the Euro is catching up to the GFS solution.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh168_trend.gif

gfs_z500a_namer_fh162_trend.gif
 
Gonna be a long week!! I am least bit skeptical at this point, after all we are in the south............. But I do love the possibilities that are on the table!!
 
Jessy89 said:
He’s like Andy wood was. To bad we don’t have Andy wood and Chris justice to listen to. Andy wood was awesome and I like Chris justice to
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Yeah I really liked Andy Wood, and he would do a lot of posting in Fox21's weather forum especially with a possible approaching winter storm. That was fun.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
It’s own ensembles don’t even support it. Like not even in the same ballpark.
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The GEFS will oscillate like a deterministic model, that certainly carries no weight with me.

FWIW, at H5 (the only thing that can reasonably even be considered at this range) it looks like pretty good agreement to me.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_28.png


gfs_z500a_namer_29.png
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Gonna be a long week!! I am least bit skeptical at this point, after all we are in the south............. But I do love the possibilities that are on the table!!
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Somehow, even with your skepticism, Wilkesboro, will still get 6” of something!
 
tonysc said:
Yeah I really liked Andy Wood, and he would do a lot of posting in Fox21's weather forum especially with a possible approaching winter storm. That was fun.
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Kendra Kent is so generic and downplays everything. Since Andy wood left. It’s so hard to to watch Fox 21 now. So I just stick to WYFF now. And of course this site
 
1300m said:
The GEFS will oscillate like a deterministic model, that certainly carries no weight with me.

FWIW, at H5 (the only thing that can reasonably even be considered at this range) it looks like pretty good agreement to me.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_28.png


gfs_z500a_namer_29.png
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GEFS seems to have a taller western ridge
 
Jessy89 said:
Kendra Kent is so generic and downplays everything. Since Andy wood left. It’s so hard to to watch Fox 21 now. So I just stick to WYFF now. And of course this site
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KK sucks! She’s the Fischel of GSP!
 
Tarheel1 said:
GEFS seems to have a taller western ridge
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I did say reasonably haha. It's more a timing issue - the GFS is just a little different than the GEFS in regards to timing. These are my own forecast ideas - I'm just trying to say that the GFS as of now is the closest to them - I don't hug any model I make my own forecasts - I just use them as what they're intended to be - a tool (numerical weather prediction guidance).
 
1300m said:
Euro and GFS are both trending slower and slower with the shortwave. Before long, there isn't going to be anything to keep the storm suppressed at upper levels. What that would result in is the surface high sliding offshore as the moisture moves in, with some insitu CAD in the favored regions with a Miller B surface low that could begin as frozen before many would change over - similar to the events we've already seen. Could end up being a big winter storm for Virginia on northward depending on how far north it goes. That's been my general idea for the past few days and it still seems to me that's where we are headed in the guidance. Others are welcome to disagree as I'm sure they do!

In fact, one could argue the Euro is catching up to the GFS solution.

View attachment 7870

One
Click to expand...
1300m said:
Euro and GFS are both trending slower and slower with the shortwave. Before long, there isn't going to be anything to keep the storm suppressed at upper levels. What that would result in is the surface high sliding offshore as the moisture moves in, with some insitu CAD in the favored regions with a Miller B surface low that could begin as frozen before many would change over - similar to the events we've already seen. Could end up being a big winter storm for Virginia on northward depending on how far north it goes. That's been my general idea for the past few days and it still seems to me that's where we are headed in the guidance. Others are welcome to disagree as I'm sure they do!

In fact, one could argue the Euro is catching up to the GFS solution.

View attachment 7870

View attachment 7871
Click to expand...
One could also argue that the 50/50 low and the confluence is trending stronger on both models as well as the ridge of high pressure to the north of the system.
 
accu35 said:
I agree, what do you think about the taller ridge further west on the gefs? Will it help our chances in the cad areas or even outside of them?
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I would think that taller western ridge would lead to a deeper diving shortwave keeping our system suppressed and keeping it from cutting
 
Depending on tonight's model runs and early tomorrow model runs, is it possible that the thread will be created at some point tomorrow?
 
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