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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

I just don't see why the GFS would be projecting the system barreling through two strong highs, one off to the north, and another high off to the NE from the system. It just doesn't make since. I think we all can agree from our experience that the system will not cut with two strong highs like that.
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Don’t get me wrong, I love that some of the ops and ens are showing a bit. But this is one of those timing events. They’re hard to do in deep winter, much less early December. Fingers crossed.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
This will be a huge coup for the GFS if right. Right now it’s Euro, Euro EPS, CMC, and GFS ensembles verses GFS. Need to check with my bookie to see where the line is at.
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At this lead time it's all irrelevant. If this were five days away I would be saying the same thing.
 
Rain Cold said:
Don’t get me wrong, I love that some of the ops and ens are showing a bit. But this is one of those timing events. They’re hard to do in deep winter, much less early December. Fingers crossed.
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Normally I would say that there is a chance that this thing cuts. However, I am having a hard time believing it with the predicted set-up. Now, if that high in the mid-west is weak or late to the party, then yes it will cut up in the weakness of the ridge. Just as a tropical storm will do in the warm season. Best advice is to watch this thing for now and note the ensemble trends.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Normally I would say that there is a chance that this thing cuts. However, I am having a hard time believing it with the predicted set-up. Now, if that high in the mid-west is weak or late to the party, then yes it will cut up in the weakness of the ridge. Just as a tropical storm will do in the warm season. Best advice is to watch this thing for now and note the ensemble trends.
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Yep, ensembles are key at this point anyway. We’re still too far away to be too excited or worried anyway. Nice to be talking about something this early.
 
FV3 crushes 3/4 of NC. Really hard not to get excited seeing that and what the Euro showed earlier, and how good the ensembles looked, too. GFS op seems to be the outlier right now.
 
Your right, that is a clown map and that's alot of ice
 

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Corrected snowmap, note just showing how incorrect tidbits snowmaps are
 

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If you look at the 850mb temps and surface temps. at 12z Sunday (next Sunday,) on the FV3. The precip could be all snow or sleet, or could be a mixture of both for some areas. I noticed that the FV3 don't depict p. types well. This is why it's always good to manually view the temp maps.
 
Rain Cold said:
There’s got to be a bug in the FV-3 snow map. Most of the snow maps depict ice as snow, we get that. But the FV-3 shows rain as snow. That’s really bad.
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I do not understand all the modern day technology and they can't program a model to show an accurate frozen precip map

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