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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Cad Wedge NC said:
One could also argue that the 50/50 low and the confluence is trending stronger on both models as well as the ridge of high pressure to the north of the system.
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Won't matter if the storm gets there after that has moved offshore because it continues trending slower as it has been for the past several days.
 
several of the respected posters in the MA forum seem to think these banana highs trend stronger up until game time leading to further suppression. Anyone care to weigh in on why that might be?
 
Interesting wording in WRAL's forecast for Saturday night:
Mostly cloudy with lows in the low-mid 30s. Keep checking back for updates.
They also currently are saying a slight chance of "cold rain" for next Saturday. Guess they don't want to get anyone excited yet...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Treat the GFS as an outlier

View attachment 7872
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HM is also saying in another respect (which I agree with) to be weary of supposed model "trends" really far away from verification (when they're more likely to be noise than an actual, signal), especially in the GFS suite when the pattern is highly variable & fraught with uncertainty.
 
Unfortunately this setup will put many of us right on the edge of snow. If you are not in the CAD region of NC/S.C. you should expect rain. CAD systems are notorious for disappointment outside of the small CAD region in Western NC.

There is no reason to suspect that this will be different

For those of you in that CAD region I hope you get buried:p
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Unfortunately this setup will put many of us right on the edge of snow. If you are not in the CAD region of NC/S.C. you should expect rain. CAD systems are notorious for disappointment outside of the small CAD region in Western NC.

There is no reason to suspect that this will be different.
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I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if this ends up a 33-34 degree rain for RDU. West of I-77 probably has the best chance... After numerous December shafts I'm trying to keep my expectations in check in this one.
 
CyclonicFury said:
I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if this ends up a 33-34 degree rain for RDU. West of I-77 probably has the best chance... After numerous December shafts I'm trying to keep my expectations in check in this one.
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I agree 100%. These systems that rely on a CAD event for our cold almost never pan out for anyone east of I-77. In fact. I can’t really remember the last event that was a CAD event where Raleigh stayed frozen. If it’s ever even happened.

Given this is early December I doubt this will be any different for us. But this is definitely a major storm for others west of here.
 
I think some ice is possible in the northern CAD areas of NC/S Va for a time but the changeover will be relatively quick. Those in mid Va and North could get a good thumping but SN for NC will be confined mainly to the mountain ares IMO. The system is slowing down virtually every run and the high will be sliding off into the fishes as the precip arrives
 
Looks like a typical Miller B setup for next weekend. A brief period of wintry precip at the onset is usually about it south of I-40 outside the CAD areas. IIRC, there's usually a fairly large screw zone in NC with Miller Bs as the transfer of energy to the coastal low on the Atlantic side cuts off moisture transport for much of the Piedmont.
 
MichaelJ said:
I think some ice is possible in the northern CAD areas of NC/S Va for a time but the changeover will be relatively quick. Those in mid Va and North could get a good thumping but SN for NC will be confined mainly to the mountain ares IMO. The system is slowing down virtually every run and the high will be sliding off into the fishes as the precip arrives
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With this setup, the colder air will be just to the east of the mountains so it will actually be more likely that foothills see wintry weather than highest peaks.
 
We can't just write this thing off as a brief event, it could be, but there is still so much time between now and then for things to change, plus can't forget the fact that mesoscale things go into play
 
I know the models are not going to be 100% correct this far out. But to have some model runs show a foot or more of snow here and end up with just rain would be really bad. I could understand showing a couple of inches of snow and getting rain, but if they are that far off then that seems really bad to me.
 
MichaelJ said:
I think some ice is possible in the northern CAD areas of NC/S Va for a time but the changeover will be relatively quick. Those in mid Va and North could get a good thumping but SN for NC will be confined mainly to the mountain ares IMO. The system is slowing down virtually every run and the high will be sliding off into the fishes as the precip arrives
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Mountains aren’t guaranteed ice and snow in a CAD. In fact, I’ve been sitting at 28 an ZR, while Asheville was in the 50s
 
Completely unrelated to the upcoming storm, but given this is an early December event too, it probably has some relevance to this thread generally speaking. I recently ran across this rather odd storm in early December 1937, there was 2" of snow in Raleigh w/ higher amounts in Franklin, Vance, & Warren counties but the heavy band of snow, while respectable in terms of intensity, was virtually about the width of just Wake County. Anyone outside of that (plus Clayton) didn't see accumulating snow.
December 2-3 1937 NC Snowmap.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know the models are not going to be 100% correct this far out. But to have some model runs show a foot or more of snow here and end up with just rain would be really bad. I could understand showing a couple of inches of snow and getting rain, but if they are that far off then that seems really bad to me.
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We are probably still 2-3 days away from having an idea either way. Until we get better agreement than this we won’t know.

Though I always like the EPS the best.

9FFB64FD-E44F-4C96-B28E-C9C50BDF7EED.png BB994E67-6AA2-4643-9F41-F94C63D29764.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know the models are not going to be 100% correct this far out. But to have some model runs show a foot or more of snow here and end up with just rain would be really bad. I could understand showing a couple of inches of snow and getting rain, but if they are that far off then that seems really bad to me.
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It wouldn’t be really bad. It would be really normal. That happens all the time. We’re many days away. And no model is showing a foot or more of snow here. It’s been said over and over and over how the snow maps aren’t accurately showing what is actual snow vs ice vs cold rain.
 
It looked as if the gefs trended in favor of on the 18z tho. I’m not a meteorologist but everything seems to be sliding in our favor
 
Rain Cold said:
It wouldn’t be really bad. It would be really normal. That happens all the time. We’re many days away. And no model is showing a foot or more of snow here. It’s been said over and over and over how the snow maps aren’t accurately showing what is actual snow vs ice vs cold rain.
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Well, those maps come from the models, right? I just think this far out that it is crazy they can not be more accurate than that. That is a heck of a difference between a foot of snow and rain. The technology should be better than that.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, those maps come from the models, right? I just think this far out that it is crazy they can not be more accurate than that. That is a heck of a difference between a foot of snow and rain. The technology should be better than that.
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It’s really not all that crazy. The maps are based on algorithms that don’t properly account for ice.
 
Jessy89 said:
Where’s the high pressure at here
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Crude free maps, just looking for low placement!
I’m ready for anothe CNC ice apocalypse run!
 
Mybad, yeah I was asking what that December event a ULL since it was pretty localized, I should of quoted it
 
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