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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

------, it’s an apps rubber!! NC will still love it
 
Pretty big hit for the apps, multiple 12+” spots for the mountains. Triad comes away with 4-10”


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This is looking to be a storm for the CAD areas. More than likely it will be colder in those areas than modeled. Still early but that's way it looks at the moment

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Jon said:
Much faster this time.

Decent cad in place and Precip breaking out over western Carolina and inland to Raleigh at 159hr. Going to be a decent run but would be massive if it was a tad cooler


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Still time for that, too.
 
0-2 tonight! I told you the NC people would still be giddy! SC people on the outside looking in! 2 model runs, 2 tracks through TN! It was a fun 2 days! :(
 
gfs_asnow_us_30.png

Here's the clown map.
 
0z suite looks bad verbatim but as mentioned it's a great CAD setup for icing. The high should be strong enough to shove freezing temps far south enough long enough for trouble in CAD regions.
 
ForsythSnow said:
0z suite looks bad verbatim but as mentioned it's a great CAD setup for icing. The high should be strong enough to shove freezing temps far south enough long enough for trouble in CAD regions.
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That's what I'm afraid of, perfect ice storm setup!

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Shortwave needs to be a little slower to help keep
or system suppressed. 00z GFS would probably be a CAD ice storm down into the upstate if it were go-time. Man we really have to time this thing perfect. Thread the needle is an understatement
 
The 0z GFS run did terrible job with the track of low. It has it tracking up to the state line of AL/TN then down to south GA. What a mess! I'm not sure what it's doing, it almost looks like it's a cutter to a miller B. But, that track of low looks funky to me.
 
Who's all in that tomorrows GFS runs start back showing the goods? That was just to strange of a run!

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8EF9059F-577B-44FA-A81E-985D1D2E3EB1.png Um...CMC cut with a seperare LP but still destroyed the CAD region? Primary low stayed south. There might be more than one way to win here..
 
I know this won't be popular, but I could see something like GFS verifying as well. Heck that's a severe look for Bama and GA .at least initially before it secondaries . It's possible
 
deltadog03 said:
I know this won't be popular, but I could see something like GFS verifying as well. Heck that's a severe look for Bama and GA .at least initially before it secondaries . It's possible
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Boo!!!!! Lol
How could you. It’s like your cheating on us. Lol
If it does happens like this I won’t be too disappointed because it’s early December. Now, if it was January I would be upset.
 
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1300m said:
GFS now joined by the Canadian and the ICON is actually even slower/more digging with the wave. I'm not seeing where the GFS is out to lunch compared to other guidance.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_27.png


gem_z500_vort_namer_27.png


icon_z500_vort_namer_53.png
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The GEFS and the mean are better than 18z, despite the N track! Mean increased for W Carolinas! Op out to lunch, again!
 
1300m said:
GFS now joined by the Canadian and the ICON is actually even slower/more digging with the wave. I'm not seeing where the GFS is out to lunch compared to other guidance.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_27.png


gem_z500_vort_namer_27.png


icon_z500_vort_namer_53.png
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I still think anything is possible, but definitely NC has best shot .Don't get me wrong, doc could be right for sure, but I could see how parts of Bama and GA could see some stronger storms with this.
 
1300m said:
GFS now joined by the Canadian and the ICON is actually even slower/more digging with the wave. I'm not seeing where the GFS is out to lunch compared to other guidance.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_27.png


gem_z500_vort_namer_27.png


icon_z500_vort_namer_53.png
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I kinda see what you are saying.. At least to my untrained eye.
This is one thing I would learn to read. But never have.
Shouldn’t the icon should be showing a more snowier solution since it is digging more??
Digging supposed to be better in this solution?? Right???
 
6D20AFB8-CE4B-4A8A-9949-D3AE3338DB80.png FV3 just about lockstep with reg gfs!
 
deltadog03 said:
I still think anything is possible, but definitely NC has best shot .Don't get me wrong, doc could be right for sure, but I could see how parts of Bama and GA could see some stronger storms with this.
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Well, my wife will be happy in that case. She loves storms. We actually had a few storms in this area tonight with lighting. Almost like summertime storms. Very cool to see lighting and hear thunder in December.
 
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