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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Word from the other board, Ukie was a good look!
 
DarkKnight said:
Well, my wife will be happy in that case. She loves storms. We actually had a few storms in this area tonight with lighting. Almost like summertime storms. Very cool to see lighting and hear thunder in December.
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That means Snow within 10 days!
 
With a low pressure near Tuscaloosa why is it showing rain all the way to Louisville? Just not a lot of cold air to work with?
 
This is definitely still ensemble range imo.. they have only trended better for cad regions. I’m fairly optimistic that this threat materializes for someone in the southeast.. NC &VA look pretty.
 
DarkKnight said:
I kinda see what you are saying.. At least to my untrained eye.
This is one thing I would learn to read. But never have.
Shouldn’t the icon should be showing a more snowier solution since it is digging more??
Digging supposed to be better in this solution?? Right???
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Depends on how much confluence is left by the time it arrives. If nothing changes with the northern stream timing -- which it probably will for better or worse who knows -- then slower would not be more favorable because the high will begin to slide offshore AND you lose the suppression factor that will keep the system further south. Still just too far out to make any definitive statements, but as deltadog said this is highly dependent on timing and a lot of moving parts, which is why I think at this lead with the trends it's not something I'd get too excited about...yet.
 
What’s up with the double barrel low look now? I think every model has had it at 12z so far? Is that the “transfer” to the other side of the mountains I’m seeing?
 
Okay, those ensembles look great! I think we should just forget about the OP models for now, and use just the ensembles since they are performing better than the OP models.
 
So I bet a lot of you guys is staying up for the euro??
Who has the euro run maps on here???
I guess I need to sign back up on the one website I was using since it’s winter again.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I have never been crushed by so many ensemble members in on run !! Ever ! That is pure insanity! A week out , what could go wrong!!
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Did either of those early 2000’s ice storms around here feature a Miller B transfer?
 
0z GEFS a much better run, this is what I'm looking for and the 0z GEFS has it. 0z GEFS is slower, colder because the low tracks along the Gulf coast. This would mean more snow than ice.
2d0b30c2ce09e7d480b310c54e9482f4.gif
 
12/20 members give GSP 6” +!!!! Probably 16-18/20 give us accumulation!
 
WxWatch said:
0z GEFS a much better run, this is what I'm looking for and the 0z GEFS has it. 0z GEFS is slower, colder because the low tracks along the Gulf coast. This would mean more snow than ice.
2d0b30c2ce09e7d480b310c54e9482f4.gif
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That highs position at the start of this animation,is amaze balls!! Classic, classic banana high!
 
Jessy89 said:
So why are the models showing a cutter? And the esambles showing major winter storm for most
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strong CAD. If that’s locked in E of the mountains, it won’t matter much where the low goes and this run , looks like it’s going to die out and transfer off the NC/SC coast, locking the CAD in even better!
 
What times the Euro start?
 
Tarheel1 said:
strong CAD. If that’s locked in E of the mountains, it won’t matter much where the low goes and this run , looks like it’s going to die out and transfer off the NC/SC coast, locking the CAD in even better!
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I would suspect some ice/mix issues at a minimum for GSP area. For me below 85 but 60 miles NW of Columbia, I’ll take whatever I can get.


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32DC92A4-F455-4A71-B155-5A1D4491C354.png Euki from the other board, looking great!
 
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