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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

I spy the members that caused the GEFS to look good in the end for the storm. Too bad there was only 3 of them. I'd take E1/E20 and go chase a little for E9. Too bad they aren't actual models and just a part of a run.
 
Jessy89 said:
Is the Gfs and gefs the same model?
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It actually just the same model but takes in a little bit different data and splits out all the different solutions. You have individual GEFS members model and then you have a GEFS mean where it combines all the members to create a average.
 
Wow, the GFS and new GFS went bonkers! We have to get Carolina Crusher 2: Electric Boogaloo sometime. Might as well be with this one.

Really, they might be too much, but the trends today have pointed to a possible winter storm around the 9th. The signal has been strong today.
 
DarkKnight said:
No your good... :) it was a another member saying something that shouldn’t been said. It has been handled... No worries!! :)
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Thank God I was holding my breath for a sec thank you... My goal here is abiding by all the rules... I still feel great about the 8th through the 10th period yes the models are going to flip flop until it gets a handle on the pattern but I'm not quitting on a board wide storm for the south
 
deltadog03 said:
Ok so let's think......if*** models are close to being right, y'all realize that the CAD areas are going to be colder, more than likely.
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Definitely. At minimum, there would be a large ice storm for ATL to Greenville, SC. If it is colder throughout the column, and it's close for N GA, AL, and upstate SC, it could be a huge upper SE snowstorm. Of course the warm nose may sneak its way in and ruin everything but it's all hypothetical anyway.
 
From what I looked at on the temps and the CAD usually not being modeled strong enough if that look on the models was to happen this could be a big dawg. Probably not but it’s nice to track an early storm.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Definitely. At minimum, there would be a large ice storm for ATL to Greenville, SC. If it is colder throughout the column, and it's close for N GA, AL, and upstate SC, it could be a huge upper SE snowstorm. Of course the warm nose may sneak its way in and ruin everything but it's all hypothetical anyway.
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It really is amazing the difference a few miles can make and the thermal profiles! That Dec 02 storm, I started out as straight sleet and ZR, but up near CLT, they had a big front end thump of snow. I was supposed to get only ZR, and ended up with enough sleet to whiten the ground! Was a great storm! Precip started with temps at 30, temp fell slowly all day and ended up at 26 , when the heaviest precip came through! Best ice storm I’ve ever experienced!
 
Tarheel1 said:
It really is amazing the difference a few miles can make and the thermal profiles! That Dec 02 storm, I started out as straight sleet and ZR, but up near CLT, they had a big front end thump of snow. I was supposed to get only ZR, and ended up with enough sleet to whiten the ground! Was a great storm! Precip started with temps at 30, temp fell slowly all day and ended up at 26 , when the heaviest precip came through! Best ice storm I’ve ever experienced!
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Those early 2000’s ice storms have yet to be replicated around here. The sound of those tree limbs snapping at night was just wild. Haven’t heard anything like it in a long long time
 
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