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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

One thing that seems to be consistent this year is the moisture. Since the start of summer it has been rainstorm after storm. Looking over the model runs the last month and it just continues to be a parade of lows. Encouraging to say the least
 
We got an amazing snowstorm in the deep south last Dec 7/8, why not now? Is it possible? YES!! Will it happen not sure but is looking to be a threat for someone.
 
As much as next weekend looks very exciting, I’m paying more attention to next Tuesday pm into Wednesday for now. Sure it’s no big dog but it’s 5 days out and it could bring some nice flizzards and maybe a dusting!!

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Well 0Z GFS just fired up we will know here in about 45-60 minutes if we going to have heartbreak or not... I thinking it will be a lot better then last nights run IMO... Just need that low to trend about 100 miles south from where it was on the 18z!!! We will be golden for a lot of people....
 
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DarkKnight said:
Well 0Z GFS just fired up we will know here in about 45-60 minutes if we going to have heartbreak or not... I thinking it will a lot better then last nights run IMO... Just need that low to trend about 100 miles south from where it was on the 18z!!! We will be golden for a lot of people....
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I won’t be surprised if we have multiple heart breaks from now till next weekend even if this storm does pan out for us.
 
DarkKnight said:
Well 0Z GFS just fired up we will know here in about 45-60 minutes if we going to have heartbreak or not... I thinking it will a lot better then last nights run IMO... Just need that low to trend about 100 miles south from where it was on the 18z!!! We will be golden for a lot of people....
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Let’s speed it up a tick too
 
What I posted on FB
So as we all know, this is highly likely to change. There is some "noise" about a potential storm next Friday/Saturday. It's waaaaaaay out there, but we can still chat about it.

So let's look at a few things. GFS brings out a system that moves along the GOM coastline (or closed to it) with plenty of moisture and some cold air nearby to the north. There will be an area of high pressure over the NE delivering that colder air. The air will be cold, but how cold is the question. (remember we are only going to be in early December). So keep your expectations in check please. GFS does have some wintry precipitation on the northern side. See images below. ***again just some model output that will change***. Depending on the cold and how it sets up we will have to watch this.

12z EURO run says no thanks and the low pressure is much further north. Ie everyone gets rain and maybe storms. See images below. (note that free euro maps only every 24 hours). EURO ensemble (EPS) is showing a more southern solution closer to the GFS for now.

Again take with a grain of salt for now, but something to watch.
 
I'm confident enough to say that; I do believe the track of low will be a southern slider. I don't think we'll see any more significant track changes with the low. Here on out, I'm not sure about you, but it's a good idea to start looking for trends on future model runs as the mid range is approaching. This will lead to some ideas/predictions as to what may lead in mid to short range.
 
Cold push behind the clipper looks ok
 
N stream definitely going to beat the S wave! Need it to bring a big cold press!!
 
Not that it matters but the 00z CMC is gonna be way too warm H5 is a hot mess


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GFS has that dumpster fire look to it early on! 1032 over TN , in front of the storm, no bueno!
 
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