Oh my goodness, please let this gfs solution verify.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
The clown map is going to be great. Looks like about a foot or so. Here come all the NC folks jumping on the train for this now... Here's the first one. Looks like a classic Wake county gradient.
Talk about heavy snow there
May want to look at Sunday!? Road trip!?If you live in Amarillo
This is not happening but I can dream
whatalife
Moderator
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
This was so close to being a really good run for more. Literally just a couple of degrees or so off at 850.
As soon as that HP moved east Asheville got shellacked by heavy snow. Talk about thread the needle. Everything is hinging on HP placement and low track. Par for the course I guess. Let’s get that low tracking over central Florida with a 1038 locked in over NY for the duration just to be safe
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you want to seriously disrupt the polar vortex, this is the kind of pattern we need to see. While it's warm initially for us, I'm curious what long-term implications this would have on the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) & tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO) as we get late into December and beyond thru January & February.
A bout of negative mountain torque (-MT) will occur in concert w/ the huge warm-up east of the Rockies as we lose cold highs descending into the CONUS, and this regime will try to decelerate the Atlantic jet later in the month, offsetting changes being introduced by tropical forcing that'll try and create a +NAO.
From this classic Garfinkel et al (2012) paper:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053144
A bout of negative mountain torque (-MT) will occur in concert w/ the huge warm-up east of the Rockies as we lose cold highs descending into the CONUS, and this regime will try to decelerate the Atlantic jet later in the month, offsetting changes being introduced by tropical forcing that'll try and create a +NAO.
From this classic Garfinkel et al (2012) paper:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053144
This is looking like one of those events where Jc says “mainly for the NC Mountains and Asheville”
Asheville would get clobbered with this setup
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A lot of this is IP/ZR . That would be a nasty mess
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Track that low 75 miles further south and it’s a bomb for manyThis was so close to being a really good run for more. Literally just a couple of degrees or so off at 850.
Low 40s and rain for most is a great way to start winter
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whatalife
Moderator
Rates will overcome!Low 40s and rain for most is a great way to start winter
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Look at that RAH gradient!!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Never fails, especially in an El Nino.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Wow, GFS comes back with a major winter storm for NC. Looked like close to a foot on the clown map for me. And the CMC is heading in the same direction. There is definitely a strong signal for a storm around Dec 9.
It's certainly a set in the right direction. The 12z run from the GFS looks similar as some of it's previous runs, regarding the track of low and placement of frozen precip. Today could be the beginnings of trends, depending on other modeling today and days ahead. With a look like that that's on the 12z GFS, the low could track further south than what the model is projecting. Of course, we'll have to be on the "watch" for evidence for a south trend.
That 12z run was close here even with a less than favorable LP track. A couple good trends and this could be another classic 85 north event. Yay...