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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Storm5 said:
Gotta time it right but this is a big change on the gfs for late next week MUCH colder
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Idk if that big cutter right before this is going to help our cause
 
Kylo said:
The blocking trying to develop is nice to see though. Pac is a mess and will be a mess until we get past phase 5.

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Yep , plenty of cold in Canada as well . Funny part is even with the pacific being a mess with the press north of the Great Lakes the mid south could time an overrunning event if the stars lined up correctly .

But yeah the pacific is a hot mess


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I think we could have a shot at another winter storm the first week of the New Year.
 
7-10 days after thunScreenshot_20181219-124108.pngderstorms, you get sleet and zr lol, anyways looks like models tryna latch on to maybe some overrunning
 
That upper disurbance may bring some light rain showers on Christmas Eve morning (timing may change) I doubt it will be cold enough for any frozen precip. areas south of TN. The northern fringes of TN into KY may get some light ice pellets/freezing drizzle/light freezing rain. The images are from the FV3, we might as well quit using the GFS.
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Rain Cold said:
It's going to block all that mild Pacific air from leaving. That warm pool in the GOA is not doing its job at all. #warmpoolfakenewsfraud
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Nah, it looks cool. Not saying I believe it but verbatim it looks like a step in the right direction. Need the Aleutian low to keep retrograding west to pump the western ridge to really get in the game...but hey, it'd be really nice if we get this look early January instead of mid/late. Probably a bit too early though.

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SnowNiner said:
Nah, it looks cool. Not saying I believe it but verbatim it looks like a step in the right direction. Need the Aleutian low to keep retrograding west to pump the western ridge to really get in the game...but hey, it'd be really nice if we get this look early January instead of mid/late. Probably a bit too early though.

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The anomalies aren't bad. Not snowy weather, but no 70s at least. We do need that Aleutian Low to retrograde, as you said. Not going to get much of a flow out of the Arctic with continual storms in the GOA.
 
18z GFS has that weak disturbance, some may luck out and get some light snow/sleet early, early Christmas Eve morning. I hope it trends colder, I hate to miss out on some light snow/sleet on Christmas Eve. That's a win!
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January ( see new avatar)
 
Models have been showing this sorta set up for the past 2 days now, just been inconsistent temperatures
 
Gfs has snow for me while fv3 has sleet and zr on same day before new years, hmmm they did the same thing with that dec 8-9 storm, what are the chances ?
 
Ensembles are starting to make some noise between 12/29 - 1/3 for the I-40 corridor north in NC. Let’s see if the signal grows over the next few days. Regardless, looks like by next week this time we should be seeing more activity on the models as we step our way to a more favorable pattern.
 
I think that even a day after this past storm. The models showed last week of December to possibly early January. As a potential time frame to watch. And I still think that remains the case. Doesn’t mean we will get a storm but the potential is at least there. Has been off and on for a while


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Storm5 said:
Too bad it’s so far out . Next run we could be right back in the 60s


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Sadly this is the best look we got south of God’s country. Right now our hopes hinge on the alleged SSW.


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