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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Rain Cold said:
Weeklies look good. Buckle up!
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What RC-CR said. They came out late for me but I see them now. A couple of weeks are very slightly less cold than the Monday run but week 6 is slightly colder. From weeks 3-6 the +PNA/-AO/-NAO dominates. These are run only at 0Z. Had they been run at 12Z, which was colder weeks 1-2 (EPS), they could easily have been colder.
 
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Storm5 said:
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I like the fact that the AL is the second strongest ULL on the planet.
 

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GaWx said:
I don't understand this tweet. At 12Z, not only did the EPS and GEPS maintain the very strong SSW, the weaker GEFS was even a bit stronger than prior runs. Per the graph, the GEPS is predicting what I think is an alltime record +36-7 C anomaly at 10 mb (60-90N) on 12/28! (Off the chart grays start well below that at +32.) GEFS is predicting 10C cooler at only +26-27C 12/27-8. that looks way too low. GFS is even cooler at only +23C and later (12/29). Euro peaks near 12/29. My rough guess is that it is near +32C. Normal for late Dec. is ~+210 K or -63C.

Edit: one of the reasons GFS is too cold could be that it is biased cold in the higher latitudes

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_fcst_err_T10_7.png
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I've read that this "unicorn" usually brings unparalleled cold and snowfall to Europe but that the jury is still out on whether it really helps the US or not. Is this true?
 
Ready to break records in my area, 6 inches of snow, why not more ? Hope the rest of the folks in the SE get something before we do again including @pcbjr
 
Well Merry Christmas to me...in Highlands North Carolina and the rain turned to snow at just under 40 degrees...down to 35 already and tons of moisture to yet flow in...woo hoo...my place is at 4,000 feet so obviously that’s the reason but this could be bigger for the mountains that they thought based on the amount of moisture to come.
 
@Rosie looks like Blairsville will get in on some wrap around snow.

A chance of rain showers before 9pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9pm and 2am, then a chance of snow showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
 
12z euro is close to a nice overrunning event for the western part of the southeast the 30th-31st. Verbatim it’s cold rain with temps in the mid to upper 30s . Plenty of cold in the plains to tap . Could be an interesting start to the new year for some


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Areas may be suprised with some hail tommorow with cold air aloft where stronger updrafts develop and still leftover 20-30kt of bulk shear.
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You called it, haha! Got a burst of small hail just now in Hillsborough, a few rumbles of thunder too. What was interesting was the quick nature of it- just light rain immediately before and after. Likely a product of the nature of the hail forming as you described, and the quick motion/small size of the updraft.
 
Some gusty winds creating a little havoc today... I've been keeping a check of the power outage map for NC and in just the last hour it's gone from 4k to over 13k without power in the state.
 
Yeah, got some small hail and gusty winds here in Salisbury a few hours ago, only lasted about 6 minutes, go from convective showers in the piedmont/foothills to snow breaking out in the mountains, typical ULL/nc weather
 
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